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The Caspian Pipeline: Will the $3.6 Billion Be REALLY Worth It?

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  • The Caspian Pipeline: Will the $3.6 Billion Be REALLY Worth It?

    The Caspian Pipeline: Will the $3.6 Billion Be REALLY Worth It?

    Raymond James' Energy "Stat of the Week"
    February 17, 2004

    EQUITY RESEARCH

    Industry Brief

    By Wayne Andrews

    Independence from foreign oil is a perennially favorite topic for our
    politicians. It is also, as we have often stated, a totally
    unrealistic goal, as impractical in theory as it is elusive in
    practice. As Washington gradually comes to realize that imports must
    continue to represent an ever-rising percentage of America's oil
    demand, it turns its attention to an idea that is only slightly more
    feasible - reducing reliance on oil from OPEC, and especially its
    Middle Eastern members. For strategic reasons, this concept has broad
    bipartisan support. As U.S. security policy overlaps more and more
    with energy policy, the objective is simple: increase oil supply from
    non-OPEC countries as much as possible. Russia, West Africa and South
    America are all considered key areas for this, but no part of the
    world is arguably regarded as more vital than the Caspian Sea region.

    Located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, the Caucasus is where
    the 19th century `Great Game' for territory was played by the British
    and Russian empires. Today, the main competitors are the U.S. and
    Russia, and the game is not about land, but rather who will develop
    the reserves, build the pipelines, and obtain the oil from this
    emerging export area. Politically, the stakes may be high, but from a
    pure energy supply standpoint, the region is only a minnow in the vast
    ocean of Middle Eastern oil. For all the attention and money that
    Moscow and Washington are lavishing on their client states in the
    region, the oil they will get does not seem to be, in and of itself, a
    worthwhile return on their investment. How much oil are we talking
    about? Even under an optimistic scenario, not much at all.

    Two weeks ago, the final financing terms were approved for a $3.6
    billion Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, the core of a massive project
    designed to bring oil from offshore Caspian fields to Turkey, from
    where it will be re-exported to the international market. Reflecting
    the staunch support of the U.S. government, the 1,100- mile pipeline
    obtained favorable terms from the World Bank and other major
    lenders. While we see no inherent problem in the construction of the
    pipeline itself, everyone should be clear that the amount of oil in
    question is so modest, as to be almost immaterial for the market.

    Here's the situation. There are three major fields in the Caspian:
    Azeri, Chirag and Guneshli, dubbed ACG. All three combined currently
    produce less than 150,000 barrels per day, about half as much as
    Ecuador or Syria, and five times less than Qatar, the smallest OPEC
    producer. Certainly, given the modest level of foreign investment in
    the area so far, there are tangible long-term growth prospects. As ACG
    is being developed by a British Petroleum-led consortium, production
    is expected to ramp up to one million barrels per day (bpd) by 2008,
    in three phases. The consortium's extremely ambitious goal is to reach
    350,000 bpd in 2005 (when the pipeline is to be commissioned), 700,000
    in 2006, and the one million mark in 2008. This is depicted as the
    `optimistic' scenario in the adjacent chart.

    Let's suppose for the moment that production does increase seven-fold
    over the next four years. In percentage terms, that would certainly be
    quite impressive - an annual growth rate of over 60%. In absolute
    terms, however, the growth only represents an extra 850,000 bpd. To
    put this in context, we project that global oil demand in 2004 will
    average 80.5 million bpd. Even assuming a very conservative 1.2%
    annual demand growth for the next four years, 2008 demand would reach
    84.4 million bpd, 3.9 million higher than currently. This means that
    the much-vaunted Caspian projects will provide less than 22% of the
    world's incremental oil demand over this time period. Or, to put it in
    a different way, the Caspian projects will satisfy a little over 1% of
    global demand in 2008, as shown in the chart on the prior page. We
    have to wonder - is this 1% worth all the media attention and
    political fuss over the Caspian pipeline?

    There are serious obstacles to Caspian oil development. Even under
    the project sponsors' highly optimistic scenario, therefore, the
    Caspian will not come even remotely close to replacing the West's
    dependence on Persian Gulf oil. And, is it realistic to expect
    production to ramp up as rapidly as the sponsors believe? We think
    not. In fact, there are several significant obstacles that may serve
    to slow down development of the Caspian fields over the intermediate
    term. While it is difficult to quantify their impact, it seems clear
    to us that their overall influence will be negative.

    - Endemic corruption

    The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline will run through three countries:
    Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey. In the two former Soviet republics,
    corruption has reached enormous proportions after 1991. Just how bad
    is it? - Very bad. The leading global anti-corruption organization,
    Transparency International, ranks both Georgia and Azerbaijan 124th on
    its country list, with 133rd being the worst possible ranking. Even
    Turkey is ranked 77th, in the bottom half. Despite the institutional
    safeguards insisted upon by the multilateral lenders who provided
    project finance for the pipeline, it is probable that at least some of
    the funds will not be spent according to western `best practices.'
    This has the potential to materially slow the pace of construction.

    - Political instability

    The governments of Georgia and Azerbaijan have undergone dramatic
    changes in recent months. In Georgia, President Shevardnadze left
    office after massive street protests demanding his resignation. The
    new administration faces extensive challenges, including a
    nearbankrupt government and separatist movements defying his
    authority. In Azerbaijan, the death of authoritarian leader Heydar
    Aliyev led to violence, with opposition parties protesting his son's
    succession to the presidency. Although none of this directly impacted
    the petroleum industry, it clearly creates a volatile climate that may
    discourage foreign investment, which is essential for production to
    grow. It also means that political attention will be diverted from
    economic development, at least for the short term, as new leaders
    consolidate their power.

    - Threat of violence

    Once the pipeline is built, it will face the potential threat of
    terrorist attacks from Kurdish separatists in Turkey. On top of that,
    the simmering conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has not been
    permanently resolved. While there is a durable cease-fire in place, it
    is important to recall that this conflict had escalated into nearly
    full-scale war in the early 1990s. Other ethnic tensions in the
    Caucasus may lead to strikes on the pipeline and other oil
    infrastructure. Just as the ongoing insurgency is slowing down the
    reconstruction of Iraq's oil industry, the same may happen in the
    Caspian region, albeit to a lesser extent.

    The above factors, along with the obvious problems of operating in
    remote terrain under tough conditions, could easily halve the
    project's output growth rate from the 60% envisioned by the
    sponsors. In addition, the highly sour nature of Caspian crude
    represents another technical challenge. Under this `mid-range
    scenario,' the Caspian would satisfy only about 0.5% of global oil
    demand by 2008.

    Conclusion

    Developing Caspian oil reserves is important for creating a market
    economy and relieving poverty in Georgia and Azerbaijan. From a local
    standpoint, therefore, it is a worthwhile project. From a political
    standpoint, it may help build the `East-West Corridor' through the
    Caucasus - a central goal of U.S. policy after the Cold War - which
    would limit the sphere of influence of Russia and Iran, the region's
    leading powers.

    As far as oil supply is concerned, though, the Caspian will not free
    the U.S. from its dependence on OPEC. Even under the optimistic
    scenario discussed above - which itself is a very big `if' - the
    Caspian will satisfy only 1% of global demand by 2008, compared to
    35-45% for OPEC. While oil projects in nearby Kazakhstan and other
    Central Asian countries may be more fruitful in the long run, they do
    not enjoy the worldwide attention or the capital inflows that are
    being lavished on the Caspian area. In short, the Caspian's output
    potential is simply too low to be of any real significance for the oil
    market, so there is every reason to believe that OPEC will be at least
    as firmly in control of the market in 2008 as it is today.


    Contacts:
    Wayne Andrews, (713) 789-3551
    [email protected]
    Pavel Molchanov, Research Associate (713) 278-5270

    The Raymond James Financial Center
    880 Carillon Parkway
    St. Petersburg, FL 33716

    Institutional clients may call for additional information:
    Research 800-237-5643 - Trading 800-237-8426

    The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views
    of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. No part of said
    person's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related
    to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report.

    Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making
    their investment decision.
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