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NK, Armenia Prepare for Revived Azerbaijan Military Pressures

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  • NK, Armenia Prepare for Revived Azerbaijan Military Pressures

    Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily
    August 12, 2004 Thursday

    Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia Prepare for Revived Azerbaijan Military
    Pressures


    As an indication of the growing expectation that the new Azerbaijan
    Government of Pres. Ilham liyev was likely to soon begin escalating
    its confrontation against the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh,
    the autonomous enclave on August 10, 2004, ended a week of military
    exercises by the Nagorno-Karabakh armed forces. There were concerns
    in both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia that a visit to Baku by US
    Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on August 11, 2004, would be seen
    by Azeri officials as encouragement for Pres. liyev, who is
    embattled, politically, following his assumption of power on the
    death of his father, Pres. Heydar lirza oglu liyev, in 2003.

    The closing of the three-stage military maneuvers in Nagorno-Karabakh
    was, significantly, observed by Nagorno-Karabakh officials and a
    delegation of senior Armenian military officers led by Armenian
    Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian. Commenting on the exercises,
    Armenian Deputy Defense Minister Col.-Gen. Mikhail Harutiunian
    "positively assessed" the readiness and capability of the Karabakh
    armed forces. Sarkisian said the neighboring Armenian Army served as
    a guarantor of the security of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh",
    but added that there was no real threat of a military conflict in the
    near future and stressing that "the leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh and
    Armenia have declared more than once that the Armenian side does not
    intend to resume military operations".

    The implication of the statement, however, was that the Azerbaijan
    Government did intend to resume such operations. In the past,
    however, Karabakh forces had proven decisively superior to the
    Azeris.

    Meanwhile, US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld met with Azerbaijani Pres.
    liyev and Defense Minister Safar Abiev on August 11, 2004, during a
    one-day visit to Baku. Although details of the Rumsfeld visit were
    not made public, he was expected to discuss plans for an expanded US
    military mission in the country and review the deployment of
    Azerbaijani troops in Iraq. Azerbaijani press reports also indicate
    that Sec. Rumsfeld would discuss the recent visit to Baku by Iranian
    Pres. Hojet ol-Eslam Mohammad Khatami. Rumsfeld previously visited
    Baku in December 2003.
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