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  • BAKU: Azerbaijan has "most likely" agreed to host US bases...

    Azerbaijan has "most likely" agreed to host US bases, increase troops in Iraq

    Zerkalo, Baku
    19 Aug 04


    The Azerbaijani leadership has probably already decided to contribute
    more troops to the Iraqi anti-terror coalition and to agree to the
    deployment of US forces in Azerbaijan and is just waiting for the
    right moment to reveal this, an article in Baku daily Zerkalo has
    said. The deployment of US troops runs the risk of Azerbaijan getting
    embroiled in a conflict with Iran, the article said, and also rules
    out resolution of the Karabakh conflict by force. "With the appearance
    of Americans in Azerbaijan, the danger of becoming a target of Islamic
    terrorists will certainly grow... for Islamic terrorists US troops are
    like a red rag to a bull," the article concluded. It saw as advantages
    of US troop deployment greater economic development for the region and
    integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures. According to
    the article, Russia is not ready for global confrontation with the USA
    and will probably yield on the issue of US troops in Azerbaijan. The
    following is an excerpt from Rauf Mirqadirov's report in Azerbaijani
    newspaper Zerkalo on 19 August entitled "Azerbaijan, ally of the USA
    forever" and subheaded "But there is another side to the coin";
    subheadings inserted editorially:

    Official Baku will soon have to take very tough decisions within the
    framework of its participation in the US-led anti-terror
    coalition. These decisions, most likely, have already been adopted,
    and the Azerbaijani leadership is waiting for a suitable moment to
    make them public.

    The first decision is about the participation of the Azerbaijani
    peacekeeping contingent in the Iraqi coalition forces. To be more
    precise, for the time being, we are not talking about participation,
    but the expansion of the peacekeeping mission. Azerbaijani officials
    have said more than once that the issue of withdrawal of our
    peacekeeping mission from Iraq is not on the agenda. Moreover, very
    recently Azerbaijan, with other allies in the coalition, issued a
    statement that they will not make concessions to terrorists if their
    troops are taken hostage.

    Azerbaijan has probably decided to deploy US troops

    Now we are talking about contributing extra forces to maintaining
    security in the elections to be held under the UN aegis. Officially,
    Azerbaijan will not make concessions to the leaders of the anti-Iraq
    coalition, i.e. the USA and Britain, whose ranks are gradually
    thinning, but will build up its military contingent within the
    framework of the UN resolution to maintain security in the upcoming
    Iraqi presidential elections.

    The second important question, on which reliable sources claim a
    decision has been adopted, is the deployment of US "mobile forces", in
    essence, military bases, on the territory of Azerbaijan.

    [Passage omitted: Russian defence minister's comment on US
    redeployment]

    First, I shall try to answer the question on to what extent it was
    expedient to participate in the US-led anti-terror coalition, to be
    precise, the pros and cons of this step. Most likely, due to the
    following reasons, it was the right step.

    Azerbaijan itself is a victim of terror. Various terrorist
    organizations, first of all, Armenian ones, committed about 40
    terrorist acts in Azerbaijan over the last 10 years. Incidentally,
    some terrorist acts in Baku were committed by organizations of Islamic
    orientation.

    Second, Azerbaijan, being one of the rare Islamic countries oriented
    to the West, could not stay aloof from the anti-terrorist
    coalition. This step could have seriously undermined Azerbaijan's
    position at international level. Because, none of the Western
    countries, even France - an eternal opponent of the USA - did not go
    against the establishment of the anti-terror coalition. Simply, there
    was a serious difference of opinion regarding the methods used to
    combat international terrorism. Therefore, in the existing
    circumstances, Azerbaijan could hardly remain beyond the limits of the
    anti-terror coalition.

    Third, for a certain period, the direct participation of Azerbaijani
    troops in peacekeeping and anti-terrorist operations, conducted by
    NATO, as a whole and directly by the USA, met the interests of our
    country. Our troops acquired invaluable experience, as it was in
    Kosovo, in Afghanistan.

    [Passage omitted: description of situation in Iraq, Afghanistan]

    Azerbaijani troops to become targets of Islamic terrorists

    Given these conditions, naturally, any soldier, who is a
    representative of the Anglo-American coalition, irrespective of
    ethnicity and religion, is an occupier in the eyes of Iraqis,
    especially after the abuse of prisoners by troops of those countries.

    Thus, all claims that the deployment of Azerbaijani troops during the
    presidential elections in places of residence of Shi'is, engulfed in
    the uprising, will be conducive to the stabilization of the situation,
    does not stand up to criticism. For Shi'is, who most likely will
    boycott the upcoming presidential elections if the current conflict is
    not resolved, the Azerbaijani troops are not better than others all
    together, and maybe, worse. They will be perceived as defectors who
    deserted to serve the devil.

    Bearing in mind that during the elections, the number of terror acts,
    most likely, will soar, then one might suppose that the Azerbaijani
    troops too will become "targets" for the terrorists.

    The deployment of US troops in Azerbaijan also has its pros and
    cons. Let us again start with the pros.

    First, Russia is hardly likely to react so sharply to the appearance
    of Americans in Azerbaijan, as many analysts suppose. At present,
    Russia is not ready for global confrontation with the USA, first of
    all, in the economic sphere. Therefore, it will also yield in this
    issue at the end, as was the case in many others.

    Second, the situation in the region will become extremely clear and
    predictable. This is also a very important advantage, i.e. all
    conditions will be created to intensify the region's economic
    development and its integration into Euro-Atlantic and European
    structures.

    Now about the cons. First, regrettably, the Americans do not rule out
    that Iran is their future target. If all these statements are made in
    order to frighten Tehran, then it is another issue. However, if the
    Americans start another mess, moreover, on our borders, then
    Azerbaijan, irrespective of its wishes, will be dragged into this
    conflict.

    Second, the appearance of the US military bases will fully deprive
    Azerbaijan of operational space in the settlement of the Karabakh
    conflict. In other words, without supreme desire, Azerbaijan will not
    have an opportunity even to try to resolve this conflict by force. Now
    hardly anybody believes that the USA will allow Azerbaijan to resume
    hostilities after its troops have been deployed in our country.

    And finally, third, with the appearance of Americans in Azerbaijan,
    the danger of becoming a target of Islamic terrorists will certainly
    grow. Islamic terrorists do not even hide that they are planning to
    strike US allies. And for Islamic terrorists US troops are like a red
    rag to a bull.
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