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  • Baku needs help from Moscow

    Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    August 20, 2004, Friday

    BAKU NEEDS HELP FROM MOSCOW

    SOURCE: Vremya Novostei, August 18, 2004, p. 5

    by Shakhin Abbasov

    VISIT OF THE FOREIGN MINISTER OF AZERBAIJAN TO MOSCOW CENTERED AROUND
    RUSSIA'S PARTICIPATION IN NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT


    Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Eldar Mamedjarov came to Moscow with a
    three-day official visit, yesterday. This is Mamedjarov's first visit
    to Russia in the capacity of the foreign minister. The visitor and
    his Russian opposite number Sergei Lavrov will discuss the war on
    terrorism and problems of the legal status of the Caspian Sea.
    Mamedjarov said before leaving for Moscow that "the central issue on
    the agenda concerns Russia's role as a mediator and chairman of the
    OSCE Minsk Group in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict."
    "This is a matter of importance for us," Mamedjarov said.

    The talks in Moscow are taking place against the background of active
    Russian-Azerbaijan contacts. Five prominent Russian politicians
    visited Baku in the last three months - ex-premiers Yevgeny Primakov,
    Sergei Stepashin, and Viktor Chernomyrdin, CIS Executive Secretary
    Vladimir Rushailo, and Mayor of Moscow Yuri Luzhkov.

    Some discords have been already settled. The accord signed in 2002
    divided the Caspian Sea into national sectors of Russia, Azerbaijan,
    and Kazakhstan. Azerbaijan joined construction of a railroad from
    Russia to Iran and to the Persian Gulf via Azerbaijan.

    In 2002, Azerbaijan made an important step in Moscow's direction when
    it leased Russia the Gabala radar installation. Azerbaijani parties
    of the opposition and organizations of environmentalists still
    maintain that the radar is harmful to the population of nearby areas.
    The day before yesterday, PR Department of the Russian Space Force
    found itself compelled to announce that the effect the radar has on
    the population and environment does not exceed the established norms.
    In fact, demands to sanitary norms in the USSR were stiffer than
    anywhere else in the world. In any case, the final conclusion will be
    drawn by specialists.

    Political scientist Rasim Musarbekov maintains that "the
    Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is like a time bomb" that jeopardizes
    the otherwise good relations between Baku and Moscow. Mamedjarov's
    visit to Moscow is taking place against the background of
    deterioration of the situation in Georgia. In Azerbaijan itself, not
    one public statement of President Ilham Aliyev in the last twelve
    years failed to boil down to the threats to resume hostilities and to
    criticism of the OSCE Minsk Group. When a military exercise was run
    in Nagorno-Karabakh in early August (participation of the Armenian
    army in it was not even denied), Mamedjarov even went so far as to
    question expediency of continuation of negotiations within the
    framework of the OSCE Minsk Group.

    Some specialists do not rule out the possibility that official Baku
    may take radical steps to restore territorial integrity of the
    country, simultaneously with analogous actions on the part of Tbilisi
    against runaway autonomies. "Mamedjarov on his visit to Moscow will
    try to gauge the readiness of the Kremlin to put Yerevan under
    pressure so as to make it more docile in the talks," Musarbekov
    explained. The United States is another key member of the OSCE Minsk
    Group, but the forthcoming presidential election in this country have
    persuaded the US Administration not to grate the powerful Armenian
    diaspora without a compelling reason.

    On August 20, President of Russia Vladimir Putin is scheduled to meet
    with his Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharjan in Sochi. It is clear
    that the course and the tone of conversation will take into account
    the outcome of Lavrov's negotiations with Mamedjarov that will have
    ended by then.

    Unless Baku secured Moscow support, Azerbaijan may begin buying arms.
    Sources in the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan say that Baku is
    already negotiating the matter with Pakistan and Ukraine. "These arms
    deals will radically change the military parity between Azerbaijan
    and Armenia," Musarbekov said.
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