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  • Analysis: Europe will likely give Turkey lukewarm welcome

    Analysis: Europe will likely give Turkey lukewarm welcome
    By Gareth Harding, Chief European Correspondent
    Published December 15, 2004

    World Peace Herald, DC
    Dec 16 2004

    BRUSSELS -- For over 40 years, European leaders have dithered,
    delayed and ducked the question of whether to open membership talks
    with Turkey. On Friday, it is decision time. In all likelihood,
    the prime ministers and presidents of the Union's 25 states will say
    "yes" to Ankara, but it is likely to be a grudging, lukewarm welcome,
    reflecting widespread public unease about the poor, populous Muslim
    state joining the Brussels-based bloc.

    The EU is suffering from enlargement fatigue after the entry of Malta,
    Cyprus and eight central and East European states in May and ahead
    of Bulgaria and Rumania's accession in 2007. A European Commission
    opinion poll published last week showed that only half of those
    interviewed favored a further expansion of the club, with majorities
    in France, Germany, Austria, Finland and Luxembourg opposed to any
    new countries joining.

    When it comes to Turkey in particular, the public mood is even more
    skeptical. A survey carried out by French daily Le Figaro Monday
    showed 67 percent of French voters and 55 percent of Germans against
    Turkish membership of the EU, with majorities in favor in Britain,
    Italy and Spain.

    Critics argue that Turkey is too big, too poor and too Muslim to
    join the rich, compact and largely Christian EU. They also claim it
    is not European -- over 95 percent of its territory lies on the Asian
    landmass, has a poor human rights record, is in denial about its role
    in the Armenian genocide of 1915-1917 and refuses to recognize Cyprus
    -- an EU state since May.

    "Accepting Turkey as an EU member state would be to accept the risk
    of Europe becoming a League of Nations or a Euro-Asian World Trade
    Organization," said French lawmaker Jacques Toubon during a debate in
    the European Parliament Wednesday. "In short, Europe would be open,
    but without strength or power."

    After EU legislators voted to start membership negotiations with
    Turkey in a non-binding resolution, another French deputy Francois
    Grossetete said: "It is incomprehensible to want to integrate a
    country which is not situated in Europe, that does not share the
    same values as ours and that occupies, and does not even recognize,
    a full member of the Union -- the Republic of Cyprus."

    However, supporters of Turkey's entry into the club it first applied
    to join 43 years ago, say the inclusion of Europe's largest armed
    forces would strengthen the EU's fledgling defense arm, its booming
    economy and young workforce would shore up the slow-growing and
    rapidly aging Union and its pivotal geographic position could serve
    as a bridge to the Muslim world and act as an anchor of stability in
    a volatile region.

    "Turkey ... I think will be a very, very powerful partner in
    Europe in the 21st century," said Britain's Europe Minister Denis
    MacShane. European Commission President Jose-Manuel Barroso told EU
    parliamentarians it was time for the Union to "honor its commitment
    to Turkey" and announce the opening of accession negotiations.

    Both sides agree on one thing -- Turkish membership of the EU
    would change Europe for good. Turkey's population is likely to hit
    80 million by 2015 -- the earliest date it is likely to join --
    boosting the bloc's numbers to almost 600 million after the entry of
    Bulgaria, Rumania and Croatia later this decade. As voting strength
    in the Council of Ministers and the EU Parliament -- the club's two
    legislative bodies -- is based largely on population, Turkey would
    overtake Germany to become Europe's largest and most powerful state.

    The EU, a small, prosperous club of western European states for almost
    half a century, would also see its point of axis shift radically
    eastwards. With the entry of Turkey, the bloc would share common
    borders with Syria, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan,
    become a major player in the Caspian Sea and south Caucasus regions,
    and increase its clout in the Middle East.

    The stakes certainly could not be higher as EU leaders prepare to
    meet in Brussels Thursday and Friday. German Foreign Minister Joschka
    Fischer compared the Turkish decision to the collapse of communism,
    saying it was "one of the EU's biggest challenges since the fall of
    the Iron Curtain in 1989."

    The Turkish government confidently expects EU leaders to say agree to
    membership talks on Friday, but is wary of heads of state placing extra
    obstacles in its path. Ankara wants talks to start "without delay"
    in 2005 and refuses to accept any other option but full membership
    of the Union. It is also against linking its EU aspirations to a
    deal on Cyprus, arguing that it lobbied -- unsuccessfully -- for the
    unification of the divided island in an April referendum.

    Under pressure from Austria, Denmark, France, Luxembourg and Cyprus,
    which are tepid about Turkey's entry, EU leaders are expected
    to agree tougher conditions for Ankara's accession than for any
    previous newcomers. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will
    be told his government must recognize Cyprus, that the negotiations
    are "open-ended" and that they can be broken off in the event of
    backsliding on political and economic reforms.

    EU leaders dislike making hard choices, preferring cleverly worded
    compromises and political fudges to clear decisions. But on Friday,
    they know that four decades of prevaricating and procrastination
    will have to come to an end and Turkey must be given an answer --
    whether it likes it or not.
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