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Analysis: EU says 'yes' to Turkey talks

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  • Analysis: EU says 'yes' to Turkey talks

    Analysis: EU says 'yes' to Turkey talks
    By Gareth Harding, Chief European Correspondent

    Washington Times
    Dec 17 2004

    Brussels, Belgium, Dec. 17 (UPI) -- The European Union took a giant
    step towards shedding its image as a rich, Christian club with
    an aging population and spluttering economy Thursday when it gave
    the green light to start membership talks with Turkey -- a poor,
    populous and predominantly Muslim state with a secular government,
    booming growth and most of its landmass in Asia.

    "Tonight, the European Union opened its door to Turkey," European
    Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told reporters in Brussels
    at the end of the first day of a summit of EU leaders in the Belgian
    capital. Membership negotiations -- which will deal with everything
    from farm subsidies to state aid for energy companies -- will start
    on Oct. 3, 2005, and are likely to last at least a decade.

    The details of the agreement will be thrashed out Friday, when EU
    leaders will also tackle the thorny issue of Cyprus. Turkey refuses
    to recognize the divided Mediterranean state -- which became a member
    of the bloc in May -- but EU presidents and prime ministers expect
    Ankara to soften its attitude towards the Greek-speaking half of the
    island before it starts talks. "What kind of message does it send
    when you do not recognize all the members of the club you want to
    join?" asked Barroso earlier Thursday.

    Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende, whose country holds the
    rotating presidency of the EU, will try to sell the carefully worded
    deal to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan over breakfast
    Friday. "I genuinely believe this is an offer Turkey should accept,"
    said Barroso. However, before leaving for Brussels, Erdogan said he
    would not sign up to EU membership at any price.

    The historic decision, which Ankara has waited 45 years for, will
    change both Turkey and the EU for good. By 2015 -- the earliest the
    country is likely to join the 25-member bloc, Turkey's population
    is expected to jump from 71 to 82 million, boosting the Union's
    numbers to almost 600 million after the entry of Bulgaria, Rumania
    and Croatia later this decade. As voting strength in the Council of
    Ministers and the EU parliament -- the club's two legislative bodies
    -- is based largely on population, Turkey would overtake Germany to
    become Europe's largest and most powerful state.

    The EU, a small, prosperous clique of Western European states for
    almost half a century, would also see its point of axis shift radically
    eastwards. With the entry of Turkey, the bloc would have a foot-hold
    in Asia, share common borders with Syria, Iran, Iraq, Georgia, Armenia
    and Azerbaijan, become a major player in the Caspian Sea and south
    Caucasus regions, and increase its clout in the Middle East.

    The entry of Turkey will also strengthen the EU's fledgling defense
    arm, increasing the club's ability to carry out global peacekeeping
    operations and acting as a buffer zone between a stable Europe and a
    volatile Middle East. Turkey, a NATO member for more than 50 years,
    has the largest armed forces in Europe and spends more of its budget
    on defense than any other EU state -- both great assets for a union
    with big defense ambitions but pitiful resources.

    Ahead of the decision, opponents of Turkey's entry, such as Austria
    and Denmark, argued that opening the door to the former Ottoman
    power would lead to a wave of Turkish migrants flooding the EU. But
    a recent report drawn up by former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari
    estimates that only 2.7 million Turks would head west after accession
    -- a figure equivalent to 0.5 percent of the Union's total population.

    Another fear raised by opponents was that Turkey's entry would act as
    a brake on EU growth and swallow up billions of euros of regional and
    farm aid. However, a commission impact published in October estimates
    the annual cost of Turkish membership by 2025 would be between $21.8
    billion and $36.4 billion or between 0.1 and 0.17 percent of the
    bloc's gross domestic product.

    Nevertheless, many Europeans remain fearful of Turkey's entry, arguing
    the country does not share European values, will import instability
    from the Middle East, act as a Trojan horse for American interests,
    weaken the club's commitment to human rights and women's equality,
    and dilute attempts to create a political union.

    After the European Parliament voted to back the opening of membership
    talks by a 2-1 margin Wednesday, Hans Gert Pottering -- the leader
    of the assembly's largest political grouping -- warned, "If Turkey
    becomes a member of the European Union, we will be enlarging ourselves
    to death."

    There is widespread enlargement fatigue in the EU after the entry of
    Malta, Cyprus and eight central European countries in May and ahead of
    Bulgaria and Rumania's accession in 2007. A commission opinion poll
    last week showed majorities in France, Germany, Austria, Finland and
    Luxembourg opposed to any new countries joining the ever-expanding
    bloc. Another survey carried out by French daily Le Figaro Monday
    showed 67 percent of French voters and 55 percent of Germans against
    Turkish membership of the EU, with majorities in favor in Britain,
    Italy and Spain.

    "The challenge for Turkey is to win the hearts and minds of those
    European citizens who are open to, but not convinced of Turkey's
    European destiny," said Barroso Thursday. Yet 45 years after it first
    applied for associate EU membership, Ankara still has a long way
    to go before it can take its seat at the table of European nations
    and EU leaders will have a hard task persuading their citizens that
    Turkish membership of the bloc is in the interests of Europe.
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