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  • Blair-Bush Plan: Cut Near East Off From Middle East

    Pacific News Service
    Dec 30 2004

    Blair-Bush Plan: Cut Near East Off From Middle East
    Commentary, Franz Schurmann,


    Editor's Note: British Prime Minister Tony Blair knows America can't
    win in Iraq, writes PNS Editor Franz Schurmann. So he and President
    George W. Bush are concentrating on bringing peace to
    Israel/Palestine and bringing Turkey into the EU. Such "Near Eastern"
    nations are historically more European.

    As the war in Iraq gets worse and worse, British Prime Minister Tony
    Blair, who is President Bush's co-visionary on the Middle East, has
    launched a major effort to bring peace to Israel/Palestine. Is his
    strategy to show that if the Holy Land antagonists can make peace
    with each other, so can those in Iraq?

    In fact, the Blair-Bush vision is the opposite. The new strategy is
    based on severing the Near East from the Middle East. Blair probably
    thinks that with Iraq caught between two revolutions, the Western
    Coalition can never win. But it can gain a win if it can bring the
    Near Eastern nations onto its side.

    A clue of the new Blair-Bush strategy was the recent nine-nation
    conference on furthering democracy in the Arab world, held in the
    Moroccan capital Rabat. The nine nations included Syria and oil-rich
    Sudan, but not Iraq. Colin Powell attended, showing top American
    interest. Also attending were North African Egypt and Morocco, which
    are not considered part of the Middle East. Both are part of the Near
    East.

    Both terms are geopolitical, but "Middle East" was coined in World
    War II, whereas "Near East" goes back to Napoleonic times. Napoleon
    spread French language and culture and the aura of revolution in the
    region. Until "Middle East" crowded it out, the only political term
    used by Europeans about the region was French: Levant, meaning Near
    East. In contemporary terms that covers Israel/Palestine, Lebanon,
    Syria, Jordan, Turkey and Egypt.

    "Middle East" was an Anglo-American military term designating the
    territory between the European theater of operation and East Asia.
    Originally that extended from Greece to undivided India. But the
    connotation of Near East was that, politically and culturally, it was
    closer to Europe than the "Far East."

    Tony Blair knows full well that the West cannot win in Iraq but he
    also sees how fast anti-Islamism, such as the politics of French
    politician Jean-Marie Le Pen, is spreading throughout Europe. But if
    the Near Eastern region openly accepts the Napoleonic heritage of
    liberty, equality and fraternity, as has Continental Europe, Turkey
    could end up in the European Union (EU). Significantly, Blair
    recently got verbal concessions from both Turkey and the EU that
    could pave the way for admission.

    With some 20 percent of its territory in Europe, Turkey considers
    itself both European and Near Eastern. And it's modern hero, Kemal
    Pasha Ataturk, demonstrated his tilt toward Europe by having a postal
    stamp made showing himself in a tuxedo holding a martini glass.

    But Turkey also cannot shake a bloody past. It contests the
    accusation of an "Armenian holocaust." It cannot contest the fact
    that for decades it has made war on the Kurds, who have brought about
    one insurrection after another. Insurrections are an angry revolt
    against oppressors. If they go on for a long time they become
    revolutions, forcible transformations of political power and of the
    people's culture. It can occur like a single thunderbolt or go on and
    on until the transformation is completed.

    In the Middle East, two major insurrections are occurring: the
    Palestinian and the Iraqi. The first Palestinian Intifada, ("Tremor")
    was of medium duration (1987-1993). The second began in early 2000.
    Tony Blair and George W. Bush hope to channel the political energy of
    the Intifadas to bring about a Napoleonic revolution of liberty,
    equality and fraternity. But the Near Eastern peoples could turn to
    Islamic revolution instead.

    Iraq is now undergoing two different revolutions. One follows the
    Sunni Wahabi creed of Osama bin-Laden. The other is the Shia one of
    Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. The recent bloodbaths carried out in the
    Shiite holy cities of An-Najaf and Karbala showed this clash of two
    creeds.

    Some Sunni Kurds are now making common cause with the northern Sunni
    Arabs. Earlier this year Northern Arabs and Kurds killed some 100
    people who were celebrating Eid-ul-Adha. Since both Arabs and Kurds
    in Iraq's north are both Sunni, each takes pride in the great Kurdish
    liberator, Salah-ad-Din/Saladin (1137-1193), who finally crushed the
    last Crusaders in the Near East.

    So American forces in Iraq face both insurrection and revolution, the
    worst situation, as Napoleon found out first in guerrilla-ridden
    Spain and then in Russia's frozen winter.

    All over the Islamic world a sense of revolution is prevailing.
    Theirs is likely the last in a chain of revolutions that began with
    the American and French ones. Bush and Blair hope that by bringing
    the Near East to their side, they can break this chain.

    Schurmann is emeritus professor of sociology and history at U.C.
    Berkeley and the author of numerous books.
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