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Newsletter from Mediadialogue.org, date: 08-07-2004 to 16-07-2004

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  • Newsletter from Mediadialogue.org, date: 08-07-2004 to 16-07-2004

    [15-07-2004 'Karabagh Conflict']
    ------------------------------------------------- ---------------------
    WHAT TO TALK ABOUT?
    Source : "Golos Armenii" newspaper (Armenia)
    Author: Ruben Margarian

    The `Dialogue of Civilizations' Falls Flat

    It is a fact that despite the absence of tangible results in
    diplomatic settlement of Mountainous Karabagh conflict, still there
    are certain principles the international community thinks binding for
    the sides, principles that are viewed by the mediators as a sort of
    tools for working out the formula of settlement. First, these are the
    requirements of the peaceful resolution of disputes and non-resumption
    of military operations. Second comes understanding of the necessity
    for mutual compromise on the way to settlement. Third, there is to be
    understanding that the main formula of agreement should be reached by
    the parties to the conflict themselves: the mediators may become
    guarantors of the agreement, help organizing the negotiation process
    or working out corresponding documents, but they should not be
    expected to impose their decision. This third principle presupposes
    presence of certain atmosphere of trust among the parties to the
    conflict without which there can be no consensus.

    At first sight, the parties to the conflict undertook the obligation
    of meeting these principles because otherwise settlement is really out
    of the question. However, it is only at first sight. At a closer look
    it becomes clear that even in these issues the sides keep to
    diametrically different approaches. Let's consider them in order.

    Through Peaceful Settlement

    With their accession to the Council of Europe both Armenia and
    Azerbaijan undertook such an obligation. Moreover, this obligation was
    one of the main conditions for CE membership.

    It is common knowledge that Europeans do not like to accept the
    membership of the countries that are carriers of potential threat of
    military operations and regional conflicts. By the way, it may be put
    the other way: the membership of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Council
    of Europe was conditioned by the intention of preventing resumption of
    military operations in the region (we should not forget Baku-Ceyhan
    pipeline, the investments and strategic programs related to it). The
    cease-fire agreement, to which Armenia, Azerbaijan and MKR are
    signatories, is still in force but the approaches of the sides differ
    considerably.

    The Armenian side, represented by both Armenia and MKR, repeatedly
    emphasized its adherence to the cease-fire regime, its intention of
    preserving the truce and even declared that in case of resuming
    military operations, it is the initiating side that will be
    defeated. To a certain extent, it may be considered a sort of an
    obligation for not being the first to violate the cease-fire regime.


    Official Baku has a different stance. Its representatives, up to the
    Minister of Defense and President of the country repeatedly stated
    that in case the negotiation process does not yield favorable results
    for Baku, Azerbaijan reserves to itself the right for a military
    resolution of the conflict. In fact, Azerbaijan rejects the
    commitments to the Council of Europe. These statements should not be
    viewed in internal perspective. There is no sense for Azerbaijani
    authorities to threaten the people with a new war. These statements
    are rather intended for external audience and do not pursue the goal
    of killing two birds with one stone: blackmail of the international
    community with the menace of war resumption and regional
    destabilization, including public opinion poll in case Azerbaijan
    really resorts to restarting military operations. In the second case,
    the leadership of official Baku was repeatedly notified on the highest
    level about all the consequences that might ensue for Azerbaijan with
    the war resumed. However stating that constant blackmail leaves no
    consequences is hardly the right way to go.

    Willingness for Compromise

    Herein as well no identical approaches may be considered. The position
    of the Armenian side is obvious. President Kocharian in person stated
    many times that the Armenian side in Key West was ready for the
    greatest concession Yerevan and Stepanakert might afford:
    reconsideration of the results of military operations between
    Azerbaijan and MKR in 1992-1994, that is ceding to Azerbaijan a number
    of territories presently controlled by the Armenian side. The
    willingness of the Armenian side for return of Azerbaijani refugees
    and other `trifles' of similar kind is also evident. It is clear that
    the Armenian share of `mutual compromise' notion is defined by
    official Yerevan quite unambiguously despite negative response of
    public opinion towards this approach. At least the recent press
    publications of the polls confirmed the latter.

    However, it is quite difficult to understand what the Azerbaijani side
    means by `mutual compromise'. Ilham Aliev speaks only of the
    necessity for restoring territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, meaning
    the borders of Soviet Azerbaijan and the Armenian terrorism. Thus it
    may be assumed that the notion of `mutual compromise' is simply not
    perceived by Azerbaijan: Baku does not intend to cede anything since
    the promise for reactivating Baku-Nakhichevan rail route or the
    promise for providing the Armenian side with additional guarantees for
    non-resumption of military operations cannot be taken
    seriously. Obviously, it is not the promises of Baku but the armed
    forces of RA and MKR that are main peace guarantees for the Armenian
    side.

    Formula of Settlement - the Result of Mutual Efforts

    Joint productive and effective work on the package of future agreement
    is possible only with mutual aspiration of the sides for the
    atmosphere of trust among the parties to the conflict. Moreover, it is
    the peoples of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Mountainous Karabagh and not
    the Foreign Ministers or personal representatives of Presidents that
    are meant by the parties of the conflict. Herein, the positions of the
    sides are again diametrically controversial.

    If the Armenian side and official Yerevan in the first place take all
    effort for development of regional cooperation, Baku is persistent in
    reducing to minimum all possible contacts of its citizens with not
    only MKR but Armenia as well. In case such contacts are inevitable,
    they are used by official Baku to one aim: to smear Armenia and MKR by
    all means possible and to impede the progress of the two countries by
    urging not only `brother' Turkey but also public, economic and
    political structures of other countries to impose blockade on Armenia
    and MKR.

    Apparently, there is no room for optimism. Despite the lobby talks
    about the progress in the meetings of Foreign Ministers and
    Presidents, such objective factors promoting settlement as the
    exploitation of Baku-Ceyhan pipeline in the coming year or the
    forthcoming discussions about possible EU membership of Turkey,
    despite all of this it is clear that even in the stage of diplomatic
    settlement, the parties to the conflict demonstrate such different
    approaches that the notorious `dialogue of civilizations' becomes a
    failure. The parties to the conflict are guided by different value
    systems, different outlooks. So different that it is hardly possible
    to talk about real prospects for settlement.

    Editor's Note: Dear readers, the next update of MediaDialogue will be
    made in early Septmeber.



    [15-07-2004 'Region']
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    RUSSIA, GEORGIA SEEK TO KEEP GOOD TIES AMID CRISIS

    Source : "Turkish Daily News" newspaper (Turkey) Author: Reuters

    Russia and Georgia should not allow a mounting crisis over Georgia's
    breakaway region of South Ossetia to derail improving bilateral ties,
    top officials from both states were quoted as saying.

    The two states have engaged in an angry war of words after Georgia's
    nationalist President Mikhail Saakashvili -- who recently subdued
    another independent-minded region, Adzhara -- launched the latest
    drive to restore control over South Ossetia.

    Russia accuses Georgia of violating a peace deal, which ended bloody
    conflict in South Ossetia in 1992, and trying to trigger a military
    confrontation. Georgia in turn accuses Russian peacekeepers in the
    region of siding with separatists.

    "Unfortunately, the conflict has become part of our relations, thought
    not the central part," Itar-Tass news agency quoted Gela Bezhuashvili,
    secretary of Saakashvili's advisory Security Council as saying.

    "We should not become hostages to the conflict situation,"
    Bezhuashvili told his Russian opposite number, Igor Ivanov, ahead of
    trilateral talks scheduled for Wednesday in Moscow.

    Long list of complaints

    Russia and Georgia have prepared long lists of complaints to discuss
    at the talks, which Ossetian officials will also attend.

    Moscow has accused Tbilisi of covertly sending hundreds of troops to
    the conflict zone in violation of the peace deal and provoking clashes
    with separatists.

    Georgia in turn blames Russia for supplying separatists with weapons
    and giving them political support. It also accuses Russia of turning a
    blind eye to hundreds of armed volunteers pouring in from its
    territory to assist the Ossetians.

    The situation came close to a climax last weekend when Russians said
    peacekeepers in the area had the right to use force to impose peace
    and Georgians said they were prepared to use arms to repel a Russian
    aggression.

    Ivanov said he hoped Wednesday's talks would ease the confrontation.

    "In the past months relations between Georgia and Russia have become
    increasingly dynamic," Interfax news agency quoted him as telling
    Bezhuashvili. "This creates good grounds to solve problems, which
    have been mounting for years."

    Saakashvili, now on a visit to Britain to drum up support for his
    drive to restore control over South Ossetia and another breakaway
    region, Abkhazia, said he is counting on Putin to personally
    intervene.

    "I count on the pragmatism and reasonable approach of President
    Putin," he told a news conference in London.

    Last November Putin sent Ivanov to Tbilisi to persuade veteran
    President Eduard Shevardnadze to leave peacefully in the face of a
    coup staged by Saakashvili and his supporters.

    In May Ivanov flew on Putin's orders to the Adzhara region, which
    Moscow had backed, to persuade regional strongman Aslan Abashidze to
    resign. Abashidze fled to Moscow on Ivanov's plane.

    But analysts predict Putin may find it harder to compromise on South
    Ossetia. More than half of ethnic Ossetians -- who form the majority
    of the population -- have Russian passports and relatives living in
    the Russian province of North Ossetia.



    [12-07-2004 'Karabagh Conflict']
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    ARMENIA WILL NOT CEDE US A SINGLE REGION
    Source : "Zerkalo" newspaper (Azerbaijan)
    Author: M. Yasharoglu

    Political scientist Vafa Guluzade thinks it absurd to discuss the
    application of the Cyprus option to Karabagh problem resolution.

    Today both Azerbaijani and international political scientists are
    engaged in a hot discussion of the possibility for applying the Cyprus
    issue to the settlement of Mountainous Karabagh conflict provoked by
    Armenian occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani territories. Media also pay
    adequate attention to the discussion of this issue. In the
    conversation with `Zerkalo' correspondent vice state advisor,
    political scientist Vafa Guluzade noted that despite numerous
    discussions in the media, nobody explained to the society what lies
    under Cyprus option.

    - From Turkish perspective, Kofi Annan's plan on joint accession of
    the two Cyprus communities in the European Union has failed. If Turkey
    has accepted this option, it means a failure for the latter as
    well. The Turks were humiliated by the accession of only the Greek
    part of the island to the EU. In case of implementation of Kofi
    Annan's plan, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus would cease to
    exist, Turkey would lose its military presence on the island and the
    Turkish population would be in the minority. Turkey itself is not a
    part of EU and nobody is going to let it in.

    Thus, it turned out that both Cyprus and Greece would be EU members
    and Turkey would not gain any advantage. It is a no less significant
    factor that Europe promised to lift the blockade of Northern Cyprus
    and allegedly intended to allocate financial assistance for its
    development amounting to 260 million Euros. However, subsequent events
    showed that nobody intended to lift the embargo of Northern Cyprus and
    the discussion on the mentioned sum proved to be empty talk.

    - What does that option mean for Azerbaijan?

    - It might imply joint annexation of Mountainous Karabagh and Lachin
    to Armenia and return of Azerbaijani `minority', reduced to this
    plight by the Soviet authorities, to Mountainous Karabagh. That is,
    Azerbaijanis of Mountainous Karabagh will get some autonomy as a part
    of Armenia. There can be no other interpretation of the Cyprus option.
    Thus application of the Cyprus option to Azerbaijan is simply
    absurd. We may only consider liberation of Karabagh territories from
    Armenian occupation and return of Mountainous Karabagh to the
    sovereignty of Azerbaijan. Any other proposals for settling the
    conflict using Cyprus, Maldiv or Folkland options are all absurd.

    - Will Azerbaijani authorities be able to stand firm on this issue in
    the face of Western pressure whose demands for more concessions on our
    part increase daily?

    - The current authorities of Azerbaijan should have it clear that in
    case of ceding the Azerbaijani territories to Armenia, all our
    population will be against it. I don't think the authorities will be
    able to resist their own people. The power representatives are also a
    part of the people.

    There is an on-going fuss for over 10 years, particularly increasing
    since 1999 - what dressing should be provided for the return of
    Azerbaijani territories to Armenia? It is also called liberation of 9
    regions. What does that mean? What 9 regions? Will Shushi region also
    be liberated? What they mean is liberation of occupied territories
    around Mountainous Karabagh in exchange for its annexation to Armenia,
    including Lachin as well. We need to ask directly - Does Azerbaijani
    people accept it? In case of its agreement, it is a
    possibility. However, I am confident that no single Azerbaijani will
    accept it.

    I hold that Americans are absolutely unaware of Karabagh problem,
    similarly to Western Europeans. They think Azerbaijan does not lose
    much in ceding these territories to Armenia and that we should do that
    by all means. Why should Azerbaijan cede its legal territories is not
    in any way explained, even on our part. No one raises this issue. It
    is only various options that are discussed. There can be no options in
    this case. Either we restore our sovereignty or say farewell to
    Mountainous Karabagh and Lachin for the sake of liberating six
    territories.

    Unlike us, Armenians have a clear stance. When discussing the
    Mountainous Karabagh status, it may be interpreted in the following
    way - granting independence to Mountainous Karabagh or annexation of
    these territories to Armenia. They do not accept a high level of
    autonomy so profoundly discussed by ex-President of Azerbaijan. This
    fact needs to be explained to everybody. It might be much better if
    media addressed a concrete issue instead of articles on empty options
    and solutions. It is not options but our territories that we need.

    You see, when in office as a state adviser we discussed all the
    options. All of them were initially still-born. From the very outset
    they were rejected by us because they implied ceding Mountainous
    Karabagh. We mean all the previously proposed options.

    - What do you think, will we have to freeze the conflict and stop
    negotiations before reaching the decision to win our territories back?

    - We should voice our clear position all over the world that we will
    never reconcile with losing Mountainous Karabagh by any reason. All
    are to know that we will strive for restoring our sovereignty over
    Mountainous Karabagh. It should be emphasized as well that it is
    Russia that raised either Karabagh, Abkhaz, Ajar or all similar
    problems on post-Soviet space. We should always have them remember it.

    USA should also understand that we will not accept any option of
    unfair settlement of the conflict even if this will meet the oil
    interests of the White House. Such an attempt for settlement will
    destabilize the situation in the region and will threaten American
    interests. Americans, reluctant to get deeper into anything and
    viewing themselves as power, should be informed about it somehow. The
    notions of truth and justice should be driven in their brains.


    --
    Yerevan Press Club of Armenia, 'Yeni Nesil' Journalists' Union of
    Azerbaijan and Association of Diplomacy Correspondents of Turkey
    present 'Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey: Journalist Initiative-2002'
    Project. As a part of the project www.mediadialogue.org web site has
    been designed, featuring the most interesting publications from the
    press of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey on issues of mutual
    concern. The latest updates on the site are weekly delivered to the
    subscribers.
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