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Armenian president in control as opposition protests fizzle out

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  • Armenian president in control as opposition protests fizzle out

    ARMENIAN PRESIDENT IN CONTROL AS OPPOSITION PROTESTS FIZZLE OUT
    Emil Danielyan: 6/09/04

    EurasiaNet Organization
    June 9 2004

    Armenia's President Robert Kocharian appears to have warded off a
    challenge to his authority, surviving a two-month opposition protest
    campaign that aimed to force his resignation. Even though the protests
    failed to attract large numbers of Armenians, some political analysts
    in Yerevan say the opposition campaign inflicted considerable political
    damage on Kocharian.

    Since April, opposition leaders had promised "decisive action"
    against Kocharian. At the most recent street protest June 4 in
    central Yerevan, however, the opposition acknowledged that it lacked
    sufficient backing to fulfill its aim, and abandoned plans to march on
    Kocharian's residence. "We believe that we are not yet ready to carry
    out actions needed for achieving our final victory," a leading member
    of the opposition Justice bloc, Albert Bazeyan, told a thinning crowd.

    The unrest stemmed from the February-March 2003 presidential election
    in which Kocharian secured a second term amid allegations of vote
    rigging. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. His
    opponents still refuse to recognize the legitimacy of his reelection
    and were unsuccessful in a 2003 attempt to have the voting results
    invalidated. Kocharian critics later decided to embrace protest
    tactics, striving to imitate the success of Georgian President
    Mikheil Saakashvili, who came to power amid the "Rose Revolution"
    in Tbilisi. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    The opposition unveiled the protest strategy in early April. The
    most critical moment occurred early on in the protest campaign, as
    riot police, during the early hours of April 13, dispersed opposition
    protesters as they marched towards Kocharian's official residence in
    Yerevan. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

    The leaders of Armenia's two main opposition groups, the Justice
    bloc and the National Unity Party (AMK), have since continued the
    unsanctioned rallies in the city center. The protests have flagged
    in recent weeks as many opposition supporters grew increasingly
    frustrated over the lack of "decisive action."

    Bazeyan and other opposition leaders said they will continue to rally
    supporters in the capital to keep up pressure on the authorities.
    "There will be no stability in the country as long as Kocharian remains
    in power because stability and Kocharian are incompatible things,"
    the most radical of them, Aram Sarkisian, said.

    But few observers believe that demonstrations attended by several
    thousand people will pose a serious threat to the ruling regime.
    Given the effective end of the protest campaign, political analysts
    are examining the question of why the Armenian opposition failed
    to mobilize what one of its leaders described as a "critical mass"
    of demonstrators.

    In the view of Aghasi Yenokian, director of the independent Armenian
    Center for Political and International Studies, Justice and the
    AMK never had a clear action plan. He said the opposition also lost
    popular trust due to its inability to successfully press its appeal
    over the presidential election tally. "The opposition has shown on
    several occasions that it can let the people down at any moment,"
    Yenokian said.

    Still, some local political experts believe that the protests,
    which provoked the worst-ever government crackdown on the Armenian
    opposition, dealt a blow to Kocharian's legitimacy at home and
    abroad. That, they say, could open new cracks in the country's shaky
    governing coalition, rendering the medium- to long-term political
    situation in the country unpredictable.

    "Armenia is entering a period of political apathy where there is no
    effective government and [no] effective opposition," said a recent
    commentary in the pro-opposition daily Haykakan Zhamanak.

    Authorities have maintained throughout that the opposition protest
    campaign was unconstitutional. On June 8, one of Kocharian's top allies
    declared victory in the political struggle. "The opposition has failed
    to achieve its goals," Prime Minister Andranik Markarian said.

    Throughout the crisis, Kocharian stressed that Armenia's strong
    security apparatus ensured that a repetition of the "Georgian scenario"
    would not occur in Yerevan. At the same time, Kocharian has sought
    to placate building popular frustration.

    Kocharian has long tried to cast himself as the custodian of a
    fast-growing economy. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
    archive]. The benefits of economic growth, though, are not evenly
    distributed in Armenia, as many in the country continue to grapple
    with poverty. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight
    archive]. In recent weeks, Kocharian has expressed renewed interest in
    improving living conditions. His schedule in early June, for example,
    was full of meetings, heavily publicized by state-controlled television
    channels, with officials at all levels of government to examine issues
    ranging from suspected corruption in high school graduation exams to
    patchy supplies of drinking water.

    In addition to the high-profile effort to address popular concerns,
    authorities have cracked down on the opposition, arresting hundreds of
    government critics. The crackdown continued even after strong criticism
    voiced by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in late
    April. Since then, a 24-year-old man has been sentenced to an 18-month
    jail term for hurling a plastic bottle at a riot police officer during
    the April 12-13 events. Four other opposition activists received up
    to 15-month prison sentences stemming from their participation in
    another protest.

    Although Kocharian is the winner of the latest round, experts
    believe the political bout will continue. Yenokian, for one, viewed
    the deepening intra-governmental infighting as a source of political
    turmoil down the road. "The processes should not be considered over,"
    the analyst said. "They may well have a continuation."

    Editor's Note: Emil Danielyan is a Yerevan-based journalist and
    political analyst.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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