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ACNIS Releases Opinion Polls on Karabagh: Society Weighs In on Peace

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  • ACNIS Releases Opinion Polls on Karabagh: Society Weighs In on Peace

    PRESS RELEASE
    Armenian Center for National and International Studies
    75 Yerznkian Street
    Yerevan 375033, Armenia
    Tel: (+374 - 1) 52.87.80 or 27.48.18
    Fax: (+374 - 1) 52.48.46
    E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]
    Website: www.acnis.am

    June 25, 2004

    ACNIS Releases Opinion Polls on Karabagh:
    Society Weighs In on Peace, Security, Status

    Yerevan--The Armenian Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS)
    today issued the results of both a public survey and a specialized
    questionnaire on "Regulating the Karabagh Conflict," which it conducted
    between May 27 and June 18 in Yerevan and all of Armenia's regions. The
    announcement and accompanying analysis were made during a roundtable
    discussion at ACNIS headquarters which assessed the present phase of the
    Mountainous Karabagh peace process, compared and contrasted expert and
    public perceptions of the issue, and summarized its possible outcomes.

    ACNIS founder Raffi Hovannisian greeted the invited guests and public
    participants with opening remarks. "These twin surveys, in which 50 policy
    analysts and 1,950 citizens from across Armenia respectively took part,
    provide a solid basis for recording, interpreting, and evaluating public
    attitudes in the light of more specialized opinions. It is our hope that the
    relevant republic-wide institutions will draw appropriate conclusions for
    the charting of Armenian national policy," Hovannisian said.

    ACNIS legal and political affairs analyst Stepan Safarian presented "The
    Aims, Methodology, and Results of the Survey," focusing in detail on the
    findings of the expert and public opinion polls. Accordingly, 60% of the
    surveyed experts assert that the Karabagh question is the priority issue for
    Armenia today, 32% are of the opposite opinion, while 8% find it difficult
    to answer. In the public opinion poll, these indices read 64.9%, 22.1%, and
    13%, respectively.

    Since the raising of the Karabagh question (1988-2004), 82% of respondent
    experts consider the greatest achievement to be independence and
    sovereignty, 8% guarantees of physical security, 4% confidence in our own
    abilities, and 4% enhancement of territory. As for the public survey, 49.7%
    think that the most important accomplishment is independence, 6% guarantees
    of physical security, 10% confidence in one's own abilities, and 12.8%
    enhancement of territory. 54% of responding specialists see the status of
    Mountainous Karabagh as a part of Armenia, 32% as an independent and
    sovereign republic, while 10% find it acceptable for Karabagh to be an
    autonomous part of Azerbaijan. Among the broader public, these figures are
    59.7%, 38.6%, and 1.1%, respectively.

    What destiny awaits the liberated territories? In response to this question,
    6% of experts suppose they will completely be united with Mountainous
    Karabagh, 20% expect their union with Armenia alongside Karabagh, 40%
    believe it fair to yield the liberated territories, except Lachin and
    Kelbajar, to Azerbaijan as the result of compromise, 20% are for ceding the
    liberated territories to Azerbaijan, save Lachin, under the same conditions,
    and 8% think that they will completely be attached to Azerbaijan. The public
    also is concerned about the future of the liberated territories. 30.3% of
    responding citizens are for their union with Karabagh, 45.5% opine that they
    should be united with Armenia alongside Karabagh, 11.2% are for dividing
    these territories among the parties to the conflict, leaving Lachin and
    Kelbajar to Armenia, and 1% conclude that they should be attached to
    Azerbaijan.

    In this connection, 50% of the polled experts think that the Armenian
    parties might make territorial compromises only in the case of Azerbaijani
    recognition of Karabagh's independence or its union with Armenia, 4% in case
    of Azerbaijan's opening of roads leading to Armenia and Mountainous
    Karabagh, and 20% upon signing a peace accord with Azerbaijan and ruling out
    war with it, while 26% find that liberated lands cannot be subject to mutual
    concessions and bargaining, even if that means the resumption of military
    operations. The public opinion poll looks like this: 40.7% would agree to
    compromises only in case of Azerbaijani recognition of Karabagh's
    independence, 6.4% in case of Azerbaijan's opening of roads leading to
    Armenia and Mountainous Karabagh, and 14.1% upon signing a peace accord with
    Azerbaijan, while 32.4% will concede nothing even if that means the
    resumption of war.

    The majority of experts, 86%, are against the return of Azerbaijanis to
    their places of former residence in Karabagh and the liberated territories,
    and only 14% are for it. As for the circumstances under which they would
    agree to such a return, if necessity dictates, 42% think it is possible only
    after final regulation of the Karabagh issue, 18% simultaneous with
    resolution if this can help promote the process, 26% are opposed in all
    cases, while 8% believe it should turn on an equivalent step taken by
    Azerbaijan and Turkey. The figures received from among the rank-and-file
    citizens differ a bit here. 21.3% of polled citizens would agree to the
    refugees' return only after the final resolution of the Karabagh question,
    14.7% think it should be conditional on an equivalent step taken by
    Azerbaijan and Turkey, while 41.9% are unequivocally opposed.

    40% of the experts are completely dissatisfied with the Karabagh negotiation
    process, 32% are more dissatisfied than satisfied, 14% are more satisfied,
    4% are completely satisfied, while 10% find it difficult to answer for lack
    of information. In contrast with the private analysts, the members of the
    public are in a more optimistic mood. Only 13.5% are completely dissatisfied
    with the negotiation process, 37.9% are relatively dissatisfied, 22.6% are
    relatively satisfied, and 3 % are completely satisfied, whereas 23% find it
    difficult to answer for lack of information. To the extent the negotiation
    process is deemed unsatisfactory, 18% hold accountable the former
    administration, 42% the current administration, 8% mediating organizations,
    8% the international community, 10% Armenian society, and 8% all Armenians.
    In considerable measure, expert opinions and citizen attitudes do not
    coincide on this question as well. 29.5% of the latter blame the former
    administration, 34.6% the current administration, 1.7% Armenian society, and
    3.6% all Armenians.

    70% of the questioned specialists are dissatisfied with the activities of
    the OSCE Minsk Group, whereas 54% of citizens are not even familiar with
    them. 60% of experts believe that the position of none of the co-chair
    countries in the OSCE Minsk Group corresponds with those of Armenia and
    Karabagh, 18% think the United States position to be more in line with the
    Armenian ones, 10% appreciate Russia's position, and 10% mark France. As for
    the public poll, the corresponding findings are 36% (none), 2.8% (USA),
    28.8% (Russia), and 25.7% (France).

    The overwhelming majority of experts, 90%, are convinced that the Karabagh
    problem can be solved peacefully and without resort to renewed war, and only
    8% think that the solution can be achieved by force of arms. In this regard
    the citizens again are the more optimistic: 86% of them believe in a
    peaceable resolution of the conflict, while 14% conclude that military might
    is the only way. It is noteworthy that 67.7% of the public respondents are
    ready to participate to their utmost in the defense of Mountainous Karabagh
    in the event of a fresh outbreak of hostilities.

    What do the figures reveal? Davit Petrosian, political analyst for Noyan
    Tapan news agency, offered a critical intervention entitled "An Alternative
    Comment on the Poll Results." Petrosian maintained that one of the most
    valuable accomplishments reflected by the surveys is that both responding
    experts and citizens hold Armenia's independence in high esteem, and this is
    an encouraging affirmation. There also are, however, painful results. "We
    may deduce from many of the answers that the public does not trust the
    Karabagh problem to the current administration, and to be more exact only
    2.5% trust it," he said.

    The formal presentations were followed by contributions by Supreme Council
    Deputy Club chairman Ruben Torosian; Avetik Ishkhanian of the Armenian
    Helsinki Committee; Yerevan State Linguistic University professor Hrach
    Tatevian; Armen Aghayan of the "Protection of Liberated Territories" public
    initiative; Artsrun Pepanian, political analyst for AR television; ACNIS
    analyst Hovsep Khurshudian; Ruzan Khachatrian of the People's Party of
    Armenia; National Press Club chairperson Narine Mkrtchian; National State
    Party chairman Samvel Shahinian; Tamara Vardanian of the Noravank
    foundation; Karabagh analyst Alvard Barkhudarian; Slavonic University
    professor Rosalia Gabrielian; and several others. Most speakers underscored
    the importance of the information and supporting analyses uncovered by the
    surveys in terms of facilitating a comprehensive and objective understanding
    of the Karabagh challenge.

    All 50 professionals who took part in the focus poll are from Yerevan. 90%
    of them are male, and 10% female; 8% are 30 years of age or below, 40%
    31-40, 42% 41-50, and 10% 50 or above. All of the experts surveyed have
    received higher education: 20% are candidates of science (PhD), 76% hold a
    Master's degree, while 4% have earned solely a Bachelor's degree. As for the
    1,950 citizens polled, 50% of them are male and 50% female; 30.5% are 30
    years of age or below, 45.2% 31-50, 20.6% 51-70, 3.7% 71 or above. 45.7% of
    the responding citizens have received higher education, whereas 11.2%
    incomplete higher, 17.3% specialized secondary, 21.6% secondary, and 2.4%
    incomplete secondary training. Urban residents constitute 60.7% of the
    citizens surveyed, and rural residents make up 39.3%. 34.3% are from
    Yerevan, and 65.7% from all of Armenia's regions.

    Founded in 1994 by Armenia's first Minister of Foreign Affairs Raffi K.
    Hovannisian and supported by a global network of contributors, ACNIS serves
    as a link between innovative scholarship and the public policy challenges
    facing Armenia and the Armenian people in the post-Soviet world. It also
    aspires to be a catalyst for creative, strategic thinking and a wider
    understanding of the new global environment. In 2004, the Center focuses
    primarily on public outreach, civic education, and applied research on
    critical domestic and foreign policy issues for the state and the nation.

    For further information on the Center or the full graphics of the poll
    results, call (3741) 52-87-80 or 27-48-18; fax (3741) 52-48-46; e-mail
    [email protected] or [email protected]; or visit www.acnis.am.
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