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  • Sergei Ivanov's reciprocity

    Agency WPS
    What the Papers Say. Part B (Russia)
    March 26, 2004, Friday

    SERGEI IVANOV'S RECIPROCITY

    SOURCE: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, March 26, 2004, p. 6

    by Vladimir Mukhin

    The "Rossia v Globalnoi Politike" (Russia in Global Politics) journal
    quoted Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov as saying that NATO expansion
    might cause Russia to revise its military strategy - specifically,
    its plans for nuclear forces development. This sharply-worded
    statement was made in response to NATO intentions to deploy four
    F-16S in Lithuania for protection of Baltic aircraft (the Baltic
    states are to become NATO members on April 2).

    Inspecting the 32nd Air Defense Corps in Tver this Wednesday, Ivanov
    announced that Russia is waiting for explanations of the potential
    appearance of NATO facilities and forces near its state borders,
    especially in the Baltic states. "If deployment of the NATO military
    infrastructure in the Baltic states is interpreted as posing a
    threat, Russia will take adequate countermeasures," Ivanov said.

    The minister did not explain what kind of measures these would be. At
    the same time, it is hard to lend much credit to promises to
    reorganize the Russian nuclear forces after the recent statements of
    Navy Commander Admiral Vladimir Kuroyedov that the Pyotr Veliky
    (Peter the Great) cruiser could blow up at any moment, and that ICBMs
    carries by strategic nuclear submarines are technically obsolete
    (only one launch out of five tried last month was successful).

    An active phase of military exercises has taken place in some Russian
    regions and CIS countries. It involved several Air Force regiments,
    air defense units, flotillas, almost 20,000 troops, and units from
    the national armies of CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization
    members.

    In fact, military activity was noticed across all post-Soviet
    territory where the Russian military is stationed: off the Crimean
    coast, in Akhalkalaki (Georgia), Gyumri (Armenia), and Tajikistan.

    Estonia has already complained that a Russian aircraft had had the
    temerity to trespass. Ukraine also responded to activeness of the
    Russian Air Force above the Black Sea. It ran an exercise in the
    Crimea, right near the area where aircraft of the Russian Black Sea
    Fleet and its own aircraft were based. Ukrainian commandos practiced
    dealing with illegal armed formations at airfields. Russian units
    were not invited to participate in the exercise.

    Estonia made its airspace open for NATO aircraft yesterday. A week
    earlier, Ukraine made its territory available to NATO contingents for
    emergencies.

    Tension between Russia and NATO is mounting with each passing day.
    Well-informed and reliable sources say that US Defense Secretary
    Donald Rumsfeld's visit to Uzbekistan last month resulted in an
    agreement with official Tashkent on the use of military facilites in
    Uzbekistan by American mobile forces. Russia promised to bolster its
    Air Force unit in Kant, Kyrgyzstan, in response.

    The Russian 92nd Military Base in Georgia is active these days.
    Georgian special forces responded to this activeness with an exercise
    of their own in Vaziani. Abkhazia is mobilizing its troops. The
    situation is anything but tranquil. Neither is the situation any more
    tranquil in South Ossetia and Trans-Dniester, the latter vehemently
    objecting to withdrawal of Russian military hardware from the region.

    All post-Soviet territory is a zone of conflicts, exercises, and
    maneuvers. All this could even lead to a shooting war.
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