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AAA: Armenia This Week - 03/12/2004

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  • AAA: Armenia This Week - 03/12/2004

    ARMENIA THIS WEEK
    Friday, March 12, 2004

    GEORGIAN PRESIDENT VISITS ARMENIA
    Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili arrived in Yerevan this Friday for
    his first-ever official visit to Armenia. On the first day of a two-day
    visit, Saakashvili met with President Robert Kocharian and other senior
    officials, and visited the Armenian Genocide memorial.

    The 36-year-old Saakashvili led a popular revolt against President Eduard
    Shevardnadze last November. Saakashvili has since been elected President
    with virtually no opposition, collecting over 95 percent of the vote. The
    Armenian President's political opponents said they would try to force
    Kocharian's resignation by emulating events in Georgia [see the next story],
    but most observers believe that circumstances in the two countries are not
    similar enough for this to happen.

    Speaking at a joint press conference with Kocharian, Saakashvili praised
    Kocharian as "a very active president, well aware of the problems [he
    faces]," and that Armenia was "lucky to have such a president and the
    Government." He added that Georgia had much to learn from Armenia,
    particularly from the experience of its armed forces and law-enforcement.

    Interviewed by Armenian journalists on the eve of the visit, Saakashvili
    offered his vision of economic integration between Georgia and Armenia. "It
    is the [elimination] of all customs obstacles, setting common tariffs,
    cutting them down and full cancellation in certain cases... It is
    [ridiculous] that people have to wait 40-60 minutes at the border to cross
    from Armenia to Georgia. It is unacceptable, unserious; it is a leftover of
    feudalistic regime. We need free transit of both people and goods. (For
    this) we need a common legal system... Today each one of our countries,
    taken separately, is weak, for the market needs expansion, larger space."

    Saakashvili suggested that he would try to advance settlement of the
    conflict with the breakaway republic of Abkhazia through economic
    cooperation and specifically through opening of the Georgia-Russia railroad,
    which is also of strategic importance to Armenia. Saakashvili also argued
    for coordination of Armenian and Georgian policies towards Europe, Russia
    and the United States. He suggested that Armenia could play a role in
    improving of Georgian-Russian relations, while Georgia could do the same
    with Turkey.

    Turning to the problems faced by the Armenian community in Georgia,
    particularly in Javakhk, Saakashvili pledged to improve the regional road
    infrastructure, clamp down on corruption and secure European loans to
    jump-start the local economy. According to the recent Georgian census, in
    the last decade close to one-third of the 440,000-strong Armenian community,
    centered in Javakhk and Tbilisi, has emigrated. But the community continues
    to maintain 154 schools, 13 churches, 4 newspapers and a state-funded
    theater. (Sources: Armenia This Week 1-16, 30; Arminfo 3-11, 12; Azg 3-12)

    ARMENIAN POLITICAL SEASON BEGINS
    Armenian opposition parties have begun preparations for what they hope would
    become a "popular revolution" leading to the early ouster of President
    Robert Kocharian, whose term in office expires in 2008. The three main
    groups led by Parliament members Stepan Demirchian, Artashes Geghamian and
    Aram Sargsian, have so far acted largely independent of each other, holding
    separate public meetings in small towns and villages and telling people that
    Kocharian would soon resign under public pressure.

    Meeting with students of Yerevan universities this week, Kocharian defended
    his record in office, pointing to the strong economic recovery of recent
    years and dismissing opposition claims that the country was in the middle of
    a political crisis. Meanwhile, Kocharian's ally Prime Minister Andranik
    Margarian ordered a counteroffensive, sending members of his cabinet to hold
    public meetings in the economically hardest-hit towns and villages
    previously toured by the opposition.

    A recent survey conducted with U.S. funding found that the overall poverty
    level in Armenia decreased from 55% in 1996 to just under half of the
    population in 2002. The share of "very poor" people decreased from 27 to
    13%. The study also found that there was more poverty in urban (53%) than
    rural areas (45%) and that there was even stronger disparity between Yerevan
    (44%) and smaller towns (62%).

    The opposition's tactic appears to be to mobilize the latent popular
    discontent over economic conditions and official corruption into mass street
    rallies in Yerevan to mirror last year's protests in Georgia. One of the
    world's foremost political risk experts, the Economist, predicted last week
    that while political tensions in Armenia will remain high, opposition's
    efforts will be frustrated by their own disunity and positive economic
    trends. "We therefore expect Mr. Kocharian.. to remain in power through
    2005," it concluded. (Sources: Armenia This Week 2-6, 20; The Economist
    Intelligence Unit 3-4; Arminfo 3-10, 11; "Social snapshot and poverty..,"
    the National Statistics Service, 2004)

    A WEEKLY NEWSLETTER PUBLISHED BY THE ARMENIAN ASSEMBLY OF AMERICA
    122 C Street, N.W., Suite 350, Washington, D.C. 20001 (202) 393-3434 FAX
    (202) 638-4904
    E-Mail [email protected] WEB http://www.aaainc.org
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