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Relations with Turkey might hinder Armenia-NATO cooperation - agency

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  • Relations with Turkey might hinder Armenia-NATO cooperation - agency

    Relations with Turkey might hinder Armenia-NATO cooperation - agency

    Mediamax news agency, Yerevan
    24 May 04

    Relations with Turkey might hinder Armenia-NATO cooperation, Armenian
    news agency Mediamax has reported. Armenian President Robert Kocharyan
    has refused to attend a NATO summit in Istanbul in order to once again
    draw the alliance's attention to problems in relations between Yerevan
    and Ankara. The USA promised to mediate Armenian-Turkish dialogue
    back in 1999, but with no results so far, the news agency said. But
    "how far-sighted is the Yerevan government when it puts its relations
    with Turkey and NATO on the same scale", the agency questioned. The
    following is an excerpt from the report in English by Armenian news
    agency Mediamax headlined "Will the Armenian-Turkish border become
    a separation line between Armenia and NATO?"; subheadings inserted
    editorially:

    On 10 May, the Armenian president's press secretary Ashot Kocharyan
    announced that [President] Robert Kocharyan would not take part in
    the NATO summit in Istanbul in June. The reason for Robert Kocharyan's
    decision is the "current state of Armenian-Turkish relations".

    The Armenian president took part in the two latest summits of NATO and
    the Council of Euro-Atlantic Partnership in Washington and Prague, so
    the reasons making him refuse to participate in the Istanbul summit
    must be really serious. At the same time, if viewed from different
    aspects this decision seems quite controversial.

    USA promised to mediate Armenian-Turkish dialogue

    Robert Kocharyan's critics recall that not only did the Armenian
    president take part in the OSCE summit in Istanbul in the autumn of
    1999, but he also met Turkish President Suleyman Demirel within the
    framework of the summit. The Armenian president's opponents note that
    the state of Armenian-Turkish relations at that time left much to be
    desired as well. However, few people remember that Armenia decided to
    take part in the Istanbul summit of the OSCE after the international
    community, and the United States in the first place, had convinced
    Yerevan to give up the intention to impose veto on the decision to
    hold the summit in Turkey.

    Meanwhile, the Yerevan government seriously considered using the
    right of veto in order to draw attention to the fact that Turkey
    is the only OSCE member-state that refuses to establish diplomatic
    relations with Armenia. The Americans managed to persuade Yerevan
    promising to influence Turkey thus making it change its position as
    regards the normalizing of relations with Armenia. US President Bill
    Clinton discussed this issue during his talks with the Armenian and
    Turkish presidents on the sidelines of the Istanbul summit of the
    OSCE in 1999. Asked by Mediamax then whether the USA could become a
    mediator between Armenia and Turkey, Robert Kocharyan said: "I think,
    yes. The United States has been trying to play this positive role
    for already several months." As to the plans to veto the decision
    on holding the OSCE summit in Istanbul, Robert Kocharyan noted that
    such a step could throw back the development of bilateral relations
    for at least several years.

    Nearly five years have passed since that. During this time,
    the United States has really made and is continuing to make many
    efforts in order to achieve the normalization of relations between
    Yerevan and Ankara. But no tangible results have been achieved -
    there are no diplomatic relations, the border is closed, and the
    improvement of relations is linked to the settlement of the Nagornyy
    Karabakh conflict. Against this background, Armenian President Robert
    Kocharyan's decision to refuse to attend the NATO summit in Istanbul
    seems righteous, and most likely pursues the aim to remind the USA
    of the promises made five years ago. On the other hand, a question
    emerges - how far-sighted is the Yerevan government when it puts its
    relations with Turkey and NATO on the same scale?

    Armenia does not ignore NATO summit

    It is no secret that NATO's policy in the South Caucasus will be one
    of the central themes at the alliance's summit in Istanbul.

    [Passage omitted: Armenia signed several accords with NATO recently]

    There is no doubt that certain forces both inside Armenia and outside
    it are trying to present Robert Kocharyan's non-participation in the
    NATO summit in Istanbul as "Moscow's private order". However, such
    hints have already been voiced - one of Yerevan's opposition newspapers
    wrote that Robert Kocharyan made the decision not to go to Istanbul
    after the recent meeting with Vladimir Putin, though the statement by
    the president's press secretary about not taking part in the summit
    was made three days before Kocharyan's working trip to Moscow.

    On the other hand, Yerevan is not going to ignore the NATO summit -
    the Armenian delegation in Istanbul will be headed by Foreign Minister
    Vardan Oskanyan. The only problem is that the Armenian president's
    absence and the Georgian and Azerbaijani leaders' presence at the
    summit may create a certain political background, which is not
    desirable for Armenia at all today when it has taken a number of
    steps which ought to prove that Armenia presents its own interests
    in the region and not those of Russia.

    There is another aspect too, which casts doubts upon the efficiency
    of the Armenian leader's decision, the main aim of which is to draw
    NATO's attention to the problem of Armenian-Turkish relations. The
    alliance's leaders have repeatedly stated during the last few years
    that they do not intend to act as mediators between Yerevan and Ankara.

    [Passage omitted: quotes NATO chief George Robertson's 2001 interview]

    Thus, the Armenian president's absence at the summit in Istanbul might
    not only fail to contribute to the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
    relations, but it will also deprive Yerevan of an opportunity to make
    another step to get close to NATO.

    New tactics

    Three or four years ago, Armenian diplomats said in private talks that
    they were intentionally using the "Turkish factor" as a lever at talks
    with NATO, making emphasis on the fact that the absence of diplomatic
    relations with Turkey negatively affected the alliance's image in
    Armenia. It is difficult to say what results could be achieved by such
    policy but it is obvious that Yerevan has recently adhered to different
    tactics the essence of which is to demonstrate its readiness to take
    part in all NATO-led events which are in one way or another connected
    with Turkey or Azerbaijan, thus pushing forward the idea about the
    necessity to start regional cooperation in the South Caucasus.

    [Passage omitted: on Armenian army chief's visit to Brussels in
    May 2004]

    It is unlikely that the Armenian president's refusal to take part in
    NATO's Istanbul summit can be considered as the rejection of this new
    tactics, during the realization of which Yerevan, unlike the policy of
    the past years, uses NATO as a "bridge" for establishing at least some
    kind of contacts between Armenia and Turkey. But, on the other hand,
    Armenia's adversaries can interpret Robert Kocharyan's refusal to
    arrive in Istanbul as the refusal to adhere to regional partnership,
    including within the PfP [NATO's Partnership for Peace programme]
    framework.

    Armenian-Turkish ties might hinder cooperation with NATO

    Finally, we would like to directly touch upon Armenian-Turkish
    relations. While in 2003, both sides made optimistic statements about
    the possibility to achieve some progress, the first five months of
    2004 buried all the hopes.

    Last year, the Armenian and Turkish foreign ministers, Vardan Oskanyan
    and Abdullah Gul, held three meetings. Commenting on the results of
    his latest meeting with Gul in Brussels on 5 December 2003, Vardan
    Oskanyan said it "differed qualitatively from the two previous
    ones. We are about to make the first step. Although it is still
    early to make definite statements, I should say that this meeting
    has become an important stage, and I think that within the next few
    months we will get the first positive result concerning the issue of
    the Turkish-Armenian border," the Armenian foreign minister said.

    Late in April 2004, Vardan Oskanyan said in an interview with German
    Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: "The start of our relations with the
    new Turkish government was good. Since last year, I have had three
    meetings with Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul. The first meeting
    was good, the second less good, and the third one was bad. First,
    we concentrated on bilateral issues. During the second meeting,
    we discussed the Nagornyy Karabakh issue as well, and during the
    third one the Karabakh issue became a precondition for normalizing
    relations. Thus, we remained on the same positions we were during
    the former Turkish government."

    One thing remains quite unintelligible - why did the Armenian minister
    give a different assessment of his latest meeting with Abdullah Gul
    only half a year later? No matter what the problem is the situation
    will not change - Armenia deprives itself of an opportunity to be
    represented at a high level at an extremely important NATO summit
    in Istanbul because of the absence of relations with Turkey. If
    in the next years events develop according to the same scenario,
    the Armenian-Turkish border will become that very separation line
    between Armenia and NATO, which is so feared by Yerevan.
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