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IAGS Energy Security
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
Nov. 5, 2004
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline: not yet finished and already threatened
The long-delayed 1000-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to
transport 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Caspian to the
Turkish port of Ceyhan is progressing toward completion as early as
2005. But even before the construction is finished, terrorist elements
may already be planning attacks on this high quality target.
According to Azerbaijan's National Security Minister, Namiq Abbasov,
the country's special services had obtained information that regional
insurgents and members of al Qaeda are planning acts of sabotage
designed to derail construction of the pipeline. If true, this means
that the BTC, which traverses some of the world's most unstable
regions, could be a target of a new terrorist campaign to disrupt the
flow of much needed oil from the Caspian Sea to Western markets. The
pipeline could provide livelihood for many people in Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia as well as stimulate economic activity in eastern
Turkey, and it will make a contribution to enhancing world energy
security by developing a non-OPEC oil source. Therefore, failure of the
countries involved to ensure the security of the project will have
severe implications on the future of the region as well as global
energy markets at large.
Who has an interest in damaging the pipeline? Of all the countries in
the region Iran is perhaps the state actor with the strongest
motivation to impede the BTC project. Engulfed by U.S. forces in both
its neighbors Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran is agitated by growing U.S.
military presence in Central Asia and views the U.S. led war on terror
as an American pretext to penetrate the region and seize control over
Caspian oil. To disrupt the flow of oil in the BTC pipeline Iran could
use its web of proxies and the terrorist groups it sponsors. Iran is
not only a major oil producing country but also a stepping stone
between the Caspian region and the Persian Gulf. As such, it would like
to see Caspian oil flowing through its territory rather than through
Turkey. It is therefore offering an alternative route which runs from
Kashagan and Tengiz oil fields in Kazakhstan along the eastern Caspian
shore, through Turkmenistan and on to the Iranian border. From there
the pipeline would run across the eastern part of Iran to the Persian
Gulf terminal at Bandar Abbas. If the construction of the BTC pipeline
is completed and the pipeline operates well, it will make very little
sense for Iran to carry out its plan. However, if the flow of oil in
the BTC pipeline is interrupted due to sabotage, there will be strong
incentive for major oil companies to seek an alternative route.
Other players who would like to see the project fail are terrorist
groups operating along the pipeline route. Such groups strive to weaken
the governments they oppose by denying them revenue from the pipeline.
The Turks, for example, are a long way away from reaching a settlement
with the Kurds and are involved in fighting with the Kurdish Workers'
Party (PKK). Until the Kurdish issue is resolved, Kurdish groups might
want to derail the project. The PKK has already attacked pipelines as
recently as last month. Turkish television reported that on October 24
a remote controled device was detonated on a pipeline in the Garzan
region. Two days later the PKK bombed an oil pipeline in southeastern
Turkey. In addition there is increasing threat by Islamist groups
operating in the Caucasus such as the Islamic Party of Eastern
Turkestan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Chechen
separatists and Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami. The later group seeks to
seize power and supplant existing governments with Sharia-based
Caliphate for the purpose of jihad against the west. The head of the
Kazakh National Security Committee Nartai Dutbayev said that the Hizb
has recently increased its clandestine activities in Kazakhstan and
poses "a real threat to Kazakhstan's security." In early September,
Kazakhstan's President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, publicly admitted that
Hizb-ut-Tahrir is making significant inroads in his country.
In the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh the conflict between
Armenian and Azeris still goes on. Armenian nationalists might decide
to attack the BTC in order to hurt Azerbaijan, which derives most of
its income from oil sales.
Much of the stability along the BTC corridor would depend on Russia.
Russia is not supportive of BTC. It sees it as a U.S. plot to gain
control over the Caucasus and cut all links between Moscow of the
former Soviet states, building an economic infrastructure that would
prevent the former Soviet states to ever reunite with Russia. Moscow
also views BTC as a way to weaken its position as major supplier of oil
to the European markets. In a recent article at Asia Times Online, John
Helmer refers to the BTC project as an effort `to redraw the geography
of the Caucasus on an anti-Russian map.'
Another problem BTC poses Russia has to do with its tense relations
with Georgia. As it is, the Georgia suffers from many domestic
problems: it is emerging from a civil war and is rife with corruption,
but perhaps its most serious problem is the growing likelihood of war
with Russia over the two breakaway territories of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. The August 8 Moscow News quotes Georgian leader Mikheil
Saakashvili: `If war begins it will be a war between Georgia and
Russia, not between the Georgians and Ossetians. ... We are very close to
a war [with Russia], the population must be prepared.'
As a result of the above Russia will not shed tears if BTC is
sabotaged. It might even clandestinely lend its hand to groups that
might do just that. Russia might also team up with Iran in an effort to
promote the alternative route southward out of the Caspian to the
Persian Gulf.
If Russia decides to undermine the project, this will surely have
implications on its relations with the U.S. BTC is the linchpin of the
shift in U.S. energy policy away from the Middle East and it is in
America's best interest that the project succeeds. Secretary of Energy
Spencer Abraham called the project `one of the most important energy
undertakings from America's point of view.' U.S. Special Forces are
already training 1,500-2,000 Georgian soldiers in `anti-terrorism'
techniques under a $64 million program initiated in May 2002. In
addition, the U.S. provided the Georgian army with new combat
helicopters and other weapons. The 17,000 strong Georgian military has
many tasks related to the defense of the country from external enemies
such as Russia and Armenia but if attacks against the Georgian section
of the BTC pipeline are mounted the Georgian military will have to take
on the role of protecting the pipeline against saboteurs.
Azerbaijan is another country along the pipeline route which stands in
the center of U.S. diplomacy in Central Asia. In early August, U.S.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Azerbaijan, where he
concluded an agreement on the deployment of American forces to the
former Soviet republic. This despite a recently adopted law which
forbids foreign military forces on Azeri soil. U.S. military
specialists have already conducted preliminary examinations of
airfields in Kyurdamir, Nasosny, and Gala, and have commenced the
installation of long-range mobile radars in Sanchagal, near the
pipeline. General Charles Ward, the Deputy Commander of the U.S.
European Command, revealed in a Senate hearing that `provisionally
deployed mobile forces' will soon patrol the BTC.
The BTC pipeline could be as strong as its weakest link. An attack on
the pipeline in any place along its route will hurt not only the
country where the attack took place but also the other countries which
benefit from it. This is why multinational cooperation to secure the
pipeline is of particular importance. On August 21, the armed forces of
Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia embarked on a series of joint military
exercises in the Azeri capital of Baku. The goal of the six-day
maneuvers was to strengthen coordination and cooperation among the land
forces of the three nations in preparation for defending the BTC from a
terror attack. According to Natig Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan's
State Oil Company, $170 million have already been spent on safeguarding
the pipeline. In addition, unlike many other pipelines around the
world, BTC will be fully buried and its pumping stations will be
surrounded by walls and fences.
But as the sabotage campaign in Iraq, in which to date oil and gas
pipelines have been attacked more than 150 times, shows, investment in
physical security is not enough to secure oil infrastructure. Pipelines
are long and vulnerable and a determined terrorist would always succeed
in blowing it up somewhere along its route. If BTC were to succeed this
would be mainly due to active diplomacy to resolve the lingering
conflicts in the region and address the grievances of those who want to
see this significant project failing.
Gal Luft is Executive Director of the Institute for the Analysis of
Global Security.
Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
Nov. 5, 2004
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline: not yet finished and already threatened
The long-delayed 1000-mile Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to
transport 1 million barrels of oil a day from the Caspian to the
Turkish port of Ceyhan is progressing toward completion as early as
2005. But even before the construction is finished, terrorist elements
may already be planning attacks on this high quality target.
According to Azerbaijan's National Security Minister, Namiq Abbasov,
the country's special services had obtained information that regional
insurgents and members of al Qaeda are planning acts of sabotage
designed to derail construction of the pipeline. If true, this means
that the BTC, which traverses some of the world's most unstable
regions, could be a target of a new terrorist campaign to disrupt the
flow of much needed oil from the Caspian Sea to Western markets. The
pipeline could provide livelihood for many people in Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Armenia as well as stimulate economic activity in eastern
Turkey, and it will make a contribution to enhancing world energy
security by developing a non-OPEC oil source. Therefore, failure of the
countries involved to ensure the security of the project will have
severe implications on the future of the region as well as global
energy markets at large.
Who has an interest in damaging the pipeline? Of all the countries in
the region Iran is perhaps the state actor with the strongest
motivation to impede the BTC project. Engulfed by U.S. forces in both
its neighbors Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran is agitated by growing U.S.
military presence in Central Asia and views the U.S. led war on terror
as an American pretext to penetrate the region and seize control over
Caspian oil. To disrupt the flow of oil in the BTC pipeline Iran could
use its web of proxies and the terrorist groups it sponsors. Iran is
not only a major oil producing country but also a stepping stone
between the Caspian region and the Persian Gulf. As such, it would like
to see Caspian oil flowing through its territory rather than through
Turkey. It is therefore offering an alternative route which runs from
Kashagan and Tengiz oil fields in Kazakhstan along the eastern Caspian
shore, through Turkmenistan and on to the Iranian border. From there
the pipeline would run across the eastern part of Iran to the Persian
Gulf terminal at Bandar Abbas. If the construction of the BTC pipeline
is completed and the pipeline operates well, it will make very little
sense for Iran to carry out its plan. However, if the flow of oil in
the BTC pipeline is interrupted due to sabotage, there will be strong
incentive for major oil companies to seek an alternative route.
Other players who would like to see the project fail are terrorist
groups operating along the pipeline route. Such groups strive to weaken
the governments they oppose by denying them revenue from the pipeline.
The Turks, for example, are a long way away from reaching a settlement
with the Kurds and are involved in fighting with the Kurdish Workers'
Party (PKK). Until the Kurdish issue is resolved, Kurdish groups might
want to derail the project. The PKK has already attacked pipelines as
recently as last month. Turkish television reported that on October 24
a remote controled device was detonated on a pipeline in the Garzan
region. Two days later the PKK bombed an oil pipeline in southeastern
Turkey. In addition there is increasing threat by Islamist groups
operating in the Caucasus such as the Islamic Party of Eastern
Turkestan, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Chechen
separatists and Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami. The later group seeks to
seize power and supplant existing governments with Sharia-based
Caliphate for the purpose of jihad against the west. The head of the
Kazakh National Security Committee Nartai Dutbayev said that the Hizb
has recently increased its clandestine activities in Kazakhstan and
poses "a real threat to Kazakhstan's security." In early September,
Kazakhstan's President, Nursultan Nazarbayev, publicly admitted that
Hizb-ut-Tahrir is making significant inroads in his country.
In the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh the conflict between
Armenian and Azeris still goes on. Armenian nationalists might decide
to attack the BTC in order to hurt Azerbaijan, which derives most of
its income from oil sales.
Much of the stability along the BTC corridor would depend on Russia.
Russia is not supportive of BTC. It sees it as a U.S. plot to gain
control over the Caucasus and cut all links between Moscow of the
former Soviet states, building an economic infrastructure that would
prevent the former Soviet states to ever reunite with Russia. Moscow
also views BTC as a way to weaken its position as major supplier of oil
to the European markets. In a recent article at Asia Times Online, John
Helmer refers to the BTC project as an effort `to redraw the geography
of the Caucasus on an anti-Russian map.'
Another problem BTC poses Russia has to do with its tense relations
with Georgia. As it is, the Georgia suffers from many domestic
problems: it is emerging from a civil war and is rife with corruption,
but perhaps its most serious problem is the growing likelihood of war
with Russia over the two breakaway territories of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia. The August 8 Moscow News quotes Georgian leader Mikheil
Saakashvili: `If war begins it will be a war between Georgia and
Russia, not between the Georgians and Ossetians. ... We are very close to
a war [with Russia], the population must be prepared.'
As a result of the above Russia will not shed tears if BTC is
sabotaged. It might even clandestinely lend its hand to groups that
might do just that. Russia might also team up with Iran in an effort to
promote the alternative route southward out of the Caspian to the
Persian Gulf.
If Russia decides to undermine the project, this will surely have
implications on its relations with the U.S. BTC is the linchpin of the
shift in U.S. energy policy away from the Middle East and it is in
America's best interest that the project succeeds. Secretary of Energy
Spencer Abraham called the project `one of the most important energy
undertakings from America's point of view.' U.S. Special Forces are
already training 1,500-2,000 Georgian soldiers in `anti-terrorism'
techniques under a $64 million program initiated in May 2002. In
addition, the U.S. provided the Georgian army with new combat
helicopters and other weapons. The 17,000 strong Georgian military has
many tasks related to the defense of the country from external enemies
such as Russia and Armenia but if attacks against the Georgian section
of the BTC pipeline are mounted the Georgian military will have to take
on the role of protecting the pipeline against saboteurs.
Azerbaijan is another country along the pipeline route which stands in
the center of U.S. diplomacy in Central Asia. In early August, U.S.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Azerbaijan, where he
concluded an agreement on the deployment of American forces to the
former Soviet republic. This despite a recently adopted law which
forbids foreign military forces on Azeri soil. U.S. military
specialists have already conducted preliminary examinations of
airfields in Kyurdamir, Nasosny, and Gala, and have commenced the
installation of long-range mobile radars in Sanchagal, near the
pipeline. General Charles Ward, the Deputy Commander of the U.S.
European Command, revealed in a Senate hearing that `provisionally
deployed mobile forces' will soon patrol the BTC.
The BTC pipeline could be as strong as its weakest link. An attack on
the pipeline in any place along its route will hurt not only the
country where the attack took place but also the other countries which
benefit from it. This is why multinational cooperation to secure the
pipeline is of particular importance. On August 21, the armed forces of
Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Georgia embarked on a series of joint military
exercises in the Azeri capital of Baku. The goal of the six-day
maneuvers was to strengthen coordination and cooperation among the land
forces of the three nations in preparation for defending the BTC from a
terror attack. According to Natig Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan's
State Oil Company, $170 million have already been spent on safeguarding
the pipeline. In addition, unlike many other pipelines around the
world, BTC will be fully buried and its pumping stations will be
surrounded by walls and fences.
But as the sabotage campaign in Iraq, in which to date oil and gas
pipelines have been attacked more than 150 times, shows, investment in
physical security is not enough to secure oil infrastructure. Pipelines
are long and vulnerable and a determined terrorist would always succeed
in blowing it up somewhere along its route. If BTC were to succeed this
would be mainly due to active diplomacy to resolve the lingering
conflicts in the region and address the grievances of those who want to
see this significant project failing.
Gal Luft is Executive Director of the Institute for the Analysis of
Global Security.