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  • Talks about peace

    Agency WPS
    DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
    November 26, 2004, Friday

    TALKS ABOUT PEACE

    SOURCE: Voyenno-Promyshlenny Kuryer, No. 45, November 24-30, 2004, p. 5

    by Samvel Martirosyan

    Despite Yerevan's and Baku's statements about the necessity of
    solving the Karabakh problem peacefully, Armenia and Azerbaijan
    continue increasing expenditure on defense. The leading world powers
    interested in strengthening their influence in the Trans-Caucasian
    region support militarist trends in this region.

    Yerevan and Baku recently reported the increase of the budgets of the
    security structures in 2005. Pavel Safaryan, Armenian Deputy Finance
    and Economy Minister, stated that the Defense Ministry will receive
    around $91 million next year; this is by 10% more than in 2004
    (around $83 million). The national security service will receive
    $12.5 million ($11.2 million in 2004). Police will get $19.8 million
    ($18.5 million in 2004).

    Azerbaijan's expenses are more substantial. Finance Minister Avez
    Alekbberov said that it is intended to allocate around $240 million
    to the Defense Ministry from the 2005 draft budget. This is by a
    third more than this year.

    In other words, Azerbaijan's defense spending will be three times as
    big as Armenia's defense budget. However, there are some other
    factors. Firstly, in Baku and Yerevan the actual allocations to the
    military differ from official reports. As a rule, the military
    budgets of the republics are twice higher than official reports. In
    addition, no one knows how much Nagorny Karabakh spends on its
    defense. It should be noted that the number of armored combat
    vehicles, which Nagorny Karabakh has, can be compared with Armenia's
    arsenals.

    In addition, Yerevan and Baku can add $8.75 million to their military
    budgets. This money will be allocated by the US to its
    Trans-Caucasian partners in 2005. Judging from a project presented by
    George W. Bush's administration, it was intended to allocate over $2
    million to Armenia, and over $8 million to Azerbaijan. However, the
    Congress managed to convince the government to make military aid to
    the republics equal.

    In the meantime, Russia started selling weapons to member nations of
    the Organization of the collective security treaty at domestic
    prices. Armenia used this opportunity. Yerevan received two Il-76
    military-transport planes in late May. Russian Defense Minister
    Sergei Ivanov said: "The military-transport planes were sold at
    domestic prices - this scheme works. Armenia purchased two very good
    military-transport planes."

    Militarization of Azerbaijan and Armenia takes place against the
    background of the problem of Nagorny Karabakh. Ilkham Aliyev came to
    power a year ago. He promised to solve the Karabakh problem using
    force if Yerevan and Stepanakert refused to make concession. He
    announced plans to reform the Azerbijani Army in May 2004. The
    president of the republic stated at the opening of a military unit in
    Nakhichevan that "the defense budget will be increasing along with
    strengthening of Azerbaijan's economic potential".

    Baku tried to add the issue of the state of Azerbaijan's occupied
    territories to the agenda of the UN General Assembly. Azerbaijan
    considers Armenia as aggressor in this document. Nine members of the
    general committee, which compiles the agenda of the General Assembly,
    supported this document. The General Assembly decided to consider
    this issue (42 members voted for discussing this problem). No one
    voted against this topic.

    It should be noted that Kazakhstan, which is Yerevan's partner in the
    Organization of the collective security treaty, supported
    anti-Armenian feelings. Russia and the US did not vote against this
    topic despite the fact that this subject is "unconstructive". In the
    meantime, representatives of Moscow and Washington opposed the idea
    to consider the Karabakh conflict within the framework of the UN. The
    Russian Foreign Ministry expressed its opinion regarding Azerbaijan's
    move: "Russia abstained from voting, as well as other co-chairmen of
    the Minsk OSCE group. We think that the initiative to consider this
    issue at the UN General Assembly and the OSCE on parallel tracks will
    not contribute to the progress of negotiations. By the way, the
    results of voting show that the majority of members of the
    international community support this opinion."

    The US ambassador to Baku stated that the US does not approve of
    Azerbaijan's decision either. The diplomat stated: "Washington does
    not support the idea to discuss the issue of occupied territories at
    the UN General Assembly." He noted that the US the Karabakh problem
    can be solved by means of frequent peaceful negotiations between the
    conflicting sides.

    However, it's an advantage for Baku to discuss this problem in the UN
    because it distracts attention from a very important factor of the
    problem: participation of Nagorny Karabakh in negotiations. Yury
    Merzlyakov, co-chairman of the Minsk OSCE group, intended to invite
    representatives of Nagorny Karabakh to negotiations. Baku cannot put
    up with it.

    Azerbaijan's plan is obvious. If the General Assembly passes the
    clause on occupied territories Baku will be able to start a
    full-scale military operation against Nagorny Karabakh. The passage
    of this resolution will invalidate the results of negotiations held
    under the aegis of the Minsk OSCE group, and the problem will be
    solved by the military.

    Translated by Alexander Dubovoi
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