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ANKARA: The U.S. Elections And Turkey

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  • ANKARA: The U.S. Elections And Turkey

    Turkish Press
    25 Oct. 2004

    The U.S. Elections And Turkey
    BYEGM: 10/25/2004
    BY YASEMIN CONGAR

    MILLIYET- My personal views coincide with Turkey's official preference,
    a high-level Turkish bureaucrat told me during a recent chat. His words
    implied that both he and Ankara want US President George W. Bush to win
    the elections. Ankara of course cannot adopt an 'official' stance on
    this issue. However, the observations of a high-level official familiar
    with both countries are noteworthy.

    I don't think his stance coincides with the Turkish public's
    preferences. In fact, the majority of the world seems to favor Democrat
    Senator John Kerry winning, along with our people. I don't believe it
    is mistaken to argue that there is a strong anti-Bush feeling behind
    this wish, rather than a pro-Kerry stance. But how can we explain why
    Ankara is close to the Bush administration while the Turkish nation
    wants him to get his walking papers? I believe that there are three
    main reasons: First of all, Ankara fears that a Kerry administration
    might support the idea of partitioning Iraq. In addition, Kerry is
    likely to back the Armenian lobbies, advocating that Turkey be punished
    over the so-called Armenian genocide. Finally, bureaucrats see ties
    between Ankara and Washington improving over Bush's term, despite a
    number of problems of late.

    Personally, I do believe that a Kerry administration would see through
    significant economic and social changes domestically and give
    Washington a chance to repair its image internationally. However, no
    matter who is elected, the next president will face a host of problems
    concerning Iraq and terrorism. Both candidates have underlined that the
    US mission in Iraq must be completed, clearly expressing that American
    troops leaving the country immediately is a non-starter. However, Kerry
    wants to transform the Iraqi issue into an international one by
    organizing an international summit to discuss it as the world's common
    problem.

    As a matter of fact, there are no major differences of opinion between
    Bush and Kerry on the issues of Iraq's territorial integrity. We know
    that neither Bush nor Kerry favor the establishment of a Kurdish state
    in the region. However, I know that some people from both US Republican
    and Democratic circles believe that Iraq's territorial integrity cannot
    be protected and so a Kurdish state will be formed sooner or later.

    Kerry and Bush have agreed that any possible Iraqi scenario should be
    realized under conditions which would ease Turkey's concerns on the
    issue. Both Republicans and Democrats believe that Turkey cannot be
    allowed to hold unilateral military operations in northern Iraq no
    matter what happens there.

    In brief, I believe that Washington will adopt a similar stance in the
    future no matter who wins. Both candidates are expected to favor a
    Turkey establishing close relations with the Baghdad administration or
    any other possible federal formation in the north.

    We'll discuss other points later.
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