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New iron curtain divides Europe over Bush
Guardian, UK
28 Oct. 2004
In the run up to the US election EducationGuardian.co.uk will be asking
the UK's leading academic experts on US politics to deliver their
verdict on the repercussions across the world of defeat or victory for
George W Bush. First up, Donald MacLeod looks at Europe
Wednesday October 27, 2004
In Europe the impact of next week's presidential election will be felt
directly - the countries of "old" and "new" Europe will react very
differently to the result - and indirectly on the EU's relations with
the middle east, central Asia and Africa.
Emil Kirchner, professor of European studies at Essex University, sees
the possibility of a surprising amount of cooperation in a second Bush
term - but also the potential for even deeper splits, notably over
Iran.
Europe is divided over President George W Bush, with the "new Europe"
of former Soviet bloc countries like Poland and the Baltic states much
more favourably disposed towards him than France, Germany and (since
this year's election) Spain.
The European security strategy adopted at a summit last September is
clearly at odds with the Bush policy of pre-emptive force, Professor
Kirchner points out. Europe's recipe for dealing with conflict is
"pre-emptive engagement" - the use of diplomatic, economic and
political tools to head off conflict rather than getting your
retaliation in first. Iraq is the most glaring example of how the US
and its European allies - apart from Britain of course - have fallen
out over this. "Europeans would feel there would be continuous clashes
with Bush at the helm unless he learns from Iraq and changes policy."
He may learn something different from Iraq, of course. If, as expected,
Colin Powell steps down from the State Department, the influence of
Donald Rumsfeld and the vice-president, Dick Cheney, could grow and a
successful assault on Faluga might reinforce their belief that force is
working and could be applied to Iran, the other member of the "axis of
evil". The question of how to deal with Iran could strain relations
with Europe further. Even Tony Blair would find his loyalty stretched
if a future Bush administration opted for military measures there.
Professor Kirchner doubts whether president John Kerry would change
policy radically but he would be viewed more favourably. "At least
there would be a feeling that we have a fresh start and we're not
dealing with the same adversary."
In his view Kerry would try for a more multilateral approach but he
would be unlikely to back the Kyoto agreement on global warming or the
international criminal court. Professor Kirchner, who has lived and
taught in the US, adds: "I don't think the American character will
change. The 9/11 attacks have done something to their psyche that will
carry on for some time."
It's not clear whether the Poles and other east Europeans are pro-Bush
or simply pro-American, and in any case their involvement in Iraq could
have repercussions on the incumbent president's popularity there, he
says. Professor Kirchner does not see the fractured state of Europe
being healed by the new constitution, even if it is adopted, but by
growing prosperity.
"Europe has always delivered economically. If it can do that
sufficiently for the new countries they will come around much more to a
kind of shared understanding and similar values. The ethos of the EU is
peaceful coexistence."
When it comes to the admission of Turkey to the EU, the US has always
been strongly in favour because it fits with its policy in the middle
east; that won't change under Kerry. What is changing, argues Professor
Kirchner, is the attitude of Germany and France. Joschka Fischer, the
German foreign minister, has spoken strongly in favour of Turkey as a
secular state that could bridge Islam and Europe and Jacques Chirac has
been making similar noises. With the UK broadly in favour, Professor
Kirchner argues Italy will fall into line. Beyond Turkey, Europe's
attempts to build partnerships with the kingdoms of the middle east and
achieve a settlement in Palestine will become even more important - but
a potential source of argument with the US.
Europe's borders have shifted to the east and Turkey would bring it
into contact with the states of the Caucasus like Georgia and Armenia,
and with central Asia.
"The Americans understand there is a rough division of labour if the EU
gets involved in the Caucasus and central Asia - that's burden-sharing.
Take Afghanistan - the Europeans are running the peace-building
programme," notes Professor Kirchner, who concludes that Germany is
still anti-war but behind the scenes is prepared to work with the US.
"I think there will be more of a division of labour emerging in the
next four years, certainly under Kerry but even under Bush - but there
are still the risk of rupture points, especially Iran." In November the
issue of Iran's nuclear programme comes to the UN and if Bush is in
belligerent mood that would provoke a deeper split with Europe.
· The University of Essex is holding a one-day conference on the
European constitutional treaty next Wednesday November 3 at the Moot
Hall, Colchester. The public, including school and college students,
are welcome. Contact [email protected]
· Tomorrow: Polly Curtis looks at how the outcome of the US election
will impact in Asia.
--Boundary_(ID_mUJCHtzElZ0xYMFypje3Mg)--
Guardian, UK
28 Oct. 2004
In the run up to the US election EducationGuardian.co.uk will be asking
the UK's leading academic experts on US politics to deliver their
verdict on the repercussions across the world of defeat or victory for
George W Bush. First up, Donald MacLeod looks at Europe
Wednesday October 27, 2004
In Europe the impact of next week's presidential election will be felt
directly - the countries of "old" and "new" Europe will react very
differently to the result - and indirectly on the EU's relations with
the middle east, central Asia and Africa.
Emil Kirchner, professor of European studies at Essex University, sees
the possibility of a surprising amount of cooperation in a second Bush
term - but also the potential for even deeper splits, notably over
Iran.
Europe is divided over President George W Bush, with the "new Europe"
of former Soviet bloc countries like Poland and the Baltic states much
more favourably disposed towards him than France, Germany and (since
this year's election) Spain.
The European security strategy adopted at a summit last September is
clearly at odds with the Bush policy of pre-emptive force, Professor
Kirchner points out. Europe's recipe for dealing with conflict is
"pre-emptive engagement" - the use of diplomatic, economic and
political tools to head off conflict rather than getting your
retaliation in first. Iraq is the most glaring example of how the US
and its European allies - apart from Britain of course - have fallen
out over this. "Europeans would feel there would be continuous clashes
with Bush at the helm unless he learns from Iraq and changes policy."
He may learn something different from Iraq, of course. If, as expected,
Colin Powell steps down from the State Department, the influence of
Donald Rumsfeld and the vice-president, Dick Cheney, could grow and a
successful assault on Faluga might reinforce their belief that force is
working and could be applied to Iran, the other member of the "axis of
evil". The question of how to deal with Iran could strain relations
with Europe further. Even Tony Blair would find his loyalty stretched
if a future Bush administration opted for military measures there.
Professor Kirchner doubts whether president John Kerry would change
policy radically but he would be viewed more favourably. "At least
there would be a feeling that we have a fresh start and we're not
dealing with the same adversary."
In his view Kerry would try for a more multilateral approach but he
would be unlikely to back the Kyoto agreement on global warming or the
international criminal court. Professor Kirchner, who has lived and
taught in the US, adds: "I don't think the American character will
change. The 9/11 attacks have done something to their psyche that will
carry on for some time."
It's not clear whether the Poles and other east Europeans are pro-Bush
or simply pro-American, and in any case their involvement in Iraq could
have repercussions on the incumbent president's popularity there, he
says. Professor Kirchner does not see the fractured state of Europe
being healed by the new constitution, even if it is adopted, but by
growing prosperity.
"Europe has always delivered economically. If it can do that
sufficiently for the new countries they will come around much more to a
kind of shared understanding and similar values. The ethos of the EU is
peaceful coexistence."
When it comes to the admission of Turkey to the EU, the US has always
been strongly in favour because it fits with its policy in the middle
east; that won't change under Kerry. What is changing, argues Professor
Kirchner, is the attitude of Germany and France. Joschka Fischer, the
German foreign minister, has spoken strongly in favour of Turkey as a
secular state that could bridge Islam and Europe and Jacques Chirac has
been making similar noises. With the UK broadly in favour, Professor
Kirchner argues Italy will fall into line. Beyond Turkey, Europe's
attempts to build partnerships with the kingdoms of the middle east and
achieve a settlement in Palestine will become even more important - but
a potential source of argument with the US.
Europe's borders have shifted to the east and Turkey would bring it
into contact with the states of the Caucasus like Georgia and Armenia,
and with central Asia.
"The Americans understand there is a rough division of labour if the EU
gets involved in the Caucasus and central Asia - that's burden-sharing.
Take Afghanistan - the Europeans are running the peace-building
programme," notes Professor Kirchner, who concludes that Germany is
still anti-war but behind the scenes is prepared to work with the US.
"I think there will be more of a division of labour emerging in the
next four years, certainly under Kerry but even under Bush - but there
are still the risk of rupture points, especially Iran." In November the
issue of Iran's nuclear programme comes to the UN and if Bush is in
belligerent mood that would provoke a deeper split with Europe.
· The University of Essex is holding a one-day conference on the
European constitutional treaty next Wednesday November 3 at the Moot
Hall, Colchester. The public, including school and college students,
are welcome. Contact [email protected]
· Tomorrow: Polly Curtis looks at how the outcome of the US election
will impact in Asia.
--Boundary_(ID_mUJCHtzElZ0xYMFypje3Mg)--