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Azerbaijan's president about to be tested by challenges he inherited

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  • Azerbaijan's president about to be tested by challenges he inherited

    Azerbaijan's president about to be tested by challenges he inherited
    By Andrew Jack

    FT
    October 30 2004

    The hole from theearring that he wore in more carefree times is still
    visible in his left ear, but in the past year Ilham Aliev has taken
    on the more sober appearance befitting his new role as president
    of Azerbaijan.

    In his office a portrait of his father, the patriarch Heydar who ruled
    over the country in the South Cauc-asus for a decade until his death
    last year, looks out sternly, as it does in strategic points across
    the capital Baku and the rest of the country.

    The principal question today is how far Mr Aliev junior, a fluent
    English speaker, is able to assume and modify the legacy of his
    father, and how far he remains a captive to the previous powerful
    establishment, which remains largely in place.

    Like his counterparts in the region, he stresses the challenges he
    inherited. "From the time of independence, we had one of the most
    difficult situations among the states of the former Soviet Union,"
    he says. "The country was completely disintegrating. There was civil
    war, domestic problems, elements of chaos and crisis."

    Mr Aliev is operating today against the backdrop of an enlarging
    European Union and Nato, however, and his self-professed foreign policy
    priority to "integrate into European and euro-atlantic structures".

    Corruption, human rights abuses and democratic restrictions are all
    attracting increased international scrutiny as a result.

    "Of course there is a lot to be improved," he says.

    "Azerbaijan is a country in transition. Our objective is creating a
    normal, pluralistic, democratic country. But it's very difficult to
    create civil society. We need economic growth and education. We must
    not expect a miracle, but we have made a lot of positive steps."

    He brushes aside sugg-estions that the state is pressuring print media,
    while saying that his min-isters and government officials are within
    their rights to pursue publications for libel, in cases that have
    proved a powerful blow to local journalists.

    He also stresses that he has recently released a group of "so-called
    political prisoners", although last week seven other rival politicians
    were convicted. Mr Aliev accuses his opponents of being involved in
    violence - and of being those who imposed censorship and tension when
    in power at the start of the 1990s.

    "We need a normal, civilised relationship between different forces,
    but we will never tolerate violence," he says, adding that he easily
    won the election despite international criticism of voting.

    He has recently spent time with Russia's President Vladimir Putin,
    and the two men discussed the single most important issue confronting
    Mr Aliev: the unresolved conflict in Nagorno Karabakh, the mountain-ous
    western zone occupied by Armenia since a ceasefire in 1994.

    "Azerbaijan will never compromise its territorial integrity," he says.

    "We are ready to talk about compromises, but outside this issue. We
    will not give independence to Nagorno Karabakh or allow it to become
    part of Armenia."

    At least in public, he shows little sign of fresh concessions on the
    subject, demanding Armenian military withdrawal from the region and
    seven surrounding districts that they have occupied, and the return
    of almost 1m Azerbaijanis driven out by the conflict.

    In exchange, he says he is willing to offer "security guarantees"
    for the Armenians left in Nargono Karabakh and "the highest possible
    autonomy".

    Despite the challenges, geography has also handed Azerbaijan
    significant natural resources. With the strategic Baku-Ceyhan pipeline
    set to begin piping local oil for export next summer, and gas output
    soon to grow sharply, Mr Aliev faces the prospects of a substantial
    boost in government revenues soon.

    If he meets his pledge to use the money transparently and to help
    kickstart broader economic diversification and reform, he could yet
    live up to his father's legacy. If not, he risks being overshadowed
    by it.
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