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BAKU: USA might lose Caspian oil if Russia gains supremacy in region

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  • BAKU: USA might lose Caspian oil if Russia gains supremacy in region

    USA might lose Caspian oil if Russia gains supremacy in region - Azeri
    analyst

    Yeni Musavat, Baku
    20 Sep 04


    An Azerbaijani political expert has said that Russia's mediation in
    the Karabakh talks is fraught with danger. In an interview with Yeni
    Musavat newspaper, Vafa Quluzada said that the Russian settlement
    option envisaged sending Russian troops to Nagornyy Karabakh since
    Moscow aimed to boost its political and military presence in the
    region. If Russia succeeds in dominating the region, the USA might
    lose Caspian oil, Quluzada said. The following is an excerpt from the
    report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 20 September headlined
    "The USA might lose Caspian oil and the Caucasus" and subheaded "If
    the Kremlin's mediation proves successful, Washington will have to
    withdraw from the region"; subheadings have been inserted editorially:

    The latest CIS summit in Astana was different from the previous ones
    for some parameters. First, it is noteworthy that Russia has never
    shown its claims to the former Soviet Union [FSU] so obviously
    before. [Russian] President Vladimir Putin is evidently displeased
    with Russia's position and influence on the abovementioned
    geopolitical region. Therefore, an initiative to set up the Security
    Council of the CIS, which was advanced at the summit, stems from this
    concern.

    Russia's mediation in Karabakh talks promises Azerbaijan no good

    Another direction which the Kremlin wants to follow in the FSU is to
    take advantage of ethnic and territorial conflicts in the area
    regarded as "near abroad" and strengthen its military and political
    presence there. It seems to us that Moscow has started to take actual
    steps towards this. The Astana discussions on Nagornyy Karabakh and
    Putin's active participation in them, and the circulated fresh news
    about a new solution model that envisages bringing Russian
    peacekeepers to the region promise Azerbaijan no good. Simply because
    practice shows that the real welfare and territorial integrity of the
    Azerbaijani people is linked not to Russia but to its integration into
    the West.

    >From this viewpoint, the former state adviser, Vafa Quluzada, sees as
    very dangerous the Astana discussions and the Russian solution model.
    The political analyst said that Russia mainly demanded that its troops
    be sent to Azerbaijan and recalled that this was the main precondition
    that the Kremlin set on 12 May 1994 during the signing of the
    cease-fire agreement.

    [Passage omitted: similar ideas]

    Astana talks very dangerous

    "I do not know the Azerbaijani leader's attitude to the Astana meetings.
    But those talks are in principle very important and dangerous,"
    Quluzada said.

    It is clear that the "Russian option" stipulates serious compromises
    to Armenia. One of them is a referendum in Nagornyy Karabakh. In this
    regard, the former state adviser said: "This will be even more terrible.
    God forbid, if this happens, Armenians [in Karabakh] will immediately
    say that Azerbaijan recognizes their independence since it allowed
    them to hold a referendum. Actually, Armenians have occupied our house
    and have been sitting there for many years. They just need an official
    confirmation of this. They will reach this through a referendum.
    Moreover, if we allow this to happen, then representatives from the
    OSCE, the UN and the European Union will come to the region and the
    illegal government will gain a completely legal status. This means
    giving away Nagornyy Karabakh."

    [Passage omitted: Russia might take resolute steps]

    Vafa Quluzada recalled another interesting detail about the subject.

    "After my resignation, [the late Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev
    and I were still in contact at his request. We would meet from time to
    time and he would ask for my advice. Meeting me after the Key West
    talks, he said that according to the agreement, no peacekeepers would
    be sent to the occupied lands after they were vacated. [Armenian
    President Robert] Kocharyan also agreed with this. It meant that there
    would be no possibility of troops clashing. It appears that the
    Key-West option was better than the Astana option."

    The fact that the issue has reached this point naturally has its own
    reasons. One of them is Russia's intention to strengthen its
    political and military presence in the region. Moscow has started to
    intensively draw up new plans and tactics in this sphere. As has
    already been mentioned, the plan to take advantage of ethnic and
    territorial conflicts in the CIS occupies a special place among them.

    USA might lose Caspian oil

    Quluzada, who shared our opinions, thinks that the USA might lose
    Caspian oil and the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline if the Kremlin's activity
    bears fruit.

    "Because the situation in Iraq is indefinite. If Russia wins in
    Azerbaijan, the USA will have to give up Caspian oil and the
    Baku-Ceyhan pipeline might be exploded. The USA will, in general, have
    to give up the region if the Kremlin gets mediation in its hands."

    Apparently, the fact that Moscow has intensified its efforts in the
    negotiations and its wish to take the initiative promise Azerbaijan,
    other regional states and democratic processes no good. Therefore, the
    West, as well as the USA, which have great geopolitical interests in
    the region, should seriously review the case. Or it might be late.
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