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Which electoral law will the new Cabinet choose?
By Nada Raad, Special to The Daily Star
The Daily Star, Lebanon
April 22 2005
BEIRUT: Barring any surprises, the new Cabinet is widely expected to
announce in its Ministerial Statement next week an electoral law that
will shape parliamentary elections to be held this spring.
Currently, there are three possible draft laws for Prime
Minister-designate Najib Mikati's government to choose from.
The first option would be to approve the draft electoral law
presently before Parliament; it proposes the division of Lebanon
into small electoral districts known as qadas paired with a majority
representation system.
Such a law was implemented during the 2000 elections and included
redrawing some electoral districts, particularly in Baabda-Aley
and Beirut.
The 2000 law divided the country into 14 electoral districts, ranging
in size from governorates to qadas.
The current draft law is being championed by members of the
opposition, particularly Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir
and the Christian Qornet Shehwan Gathering, because they feel it will
guarantee their candidates a victory at the next polls.
It is understood that opposition candidates, particularly Christians
and Druze - who possess a slight majority in their respective
strongholds - can form a majority in Parliament if smaller districts
are designated.
But, this may not be the case if electoral districts are enlarged,
as the opposition risks losing considerable support by having to
forge alliances to guarantee victory.
However, the current draft law is opposed by several loyalist members,
particularly the two Shiite blocs in Parliament, Hizbullah and the
Amal Movement, despite their acceptance of the similar law in 2000.
The second option, which both Hizbullah and Amal have called for, is
the designation of an electoral law of proportional representation in
larger districts known as mohafazat or governorates. (For an example
of how to calculate the appointment of seats in a proportional
representation system, see box on left).
But such a system has never existed in Lebanon and would require
a thorough count of the country's population to accurately divide
the electoral districts, particularly considering the sectarian
requirements for the 128 seats in Parliament.
According to the 1989 Taif Accord, Parliament's 128 seats must be
split 50-50 between Christians and Muslims, with each half required
to include representation of the country's 18 recognized confessions.
Considering the monumental undertaking this system would entail,
observers have said calls for its implementation can only serve to
delay polls.
If the system is implemented in Lebanon, it is expected to be designed
in a way that respects the sectarian division of parliamentary
seats. Several suggestions have been put forward by electoral experts
on how to implement the system, but none has yet been approved.
Proportional representation asks voters to elect one entire list
of candidates as opposed to individual names. It could be applied
on a national level drawing the whole country as a single electoral
district or in large regions known as governorates.
The third option is a possible compromise between the two previous
electoral systems that some observers have said Mikati may suggest.
It considers the implementation of a mixed system, including both
majority and proportional representation.
This system was first implemented in Germany and stipulates the
election of half of Parliament based on a majority system and the
other half based on proportional representation.
Voters would simultaneously elect a candidate that represents
their electoral district and a list that represents their political
affiliations.
But this system has also never been implemented in Lebanon and
would require preparations to explain it to voters and candidates.
Therefore, it could also be seen as a means to delay elections.
Another complication for Mikati's new Cabinet is the fact there is
no clear-cut preference for an electoral law among the loyalists as
a group or among the opposition.
As it now stands, the sectarian division of Parliament is as follows:
Maronite 34, Sunni 27, Shiites 27, Greek Orthodox 14, Greek Catholic
8, Druze 8, Armenian Orthodox 5, Alawite 2, Armenian Catholic 1,
Protestant 1 and Christian Minority 1.
By Nada Raad, Special to The Daily Star
The Daily Star, Lebanon
April 22 2005
BEIRUT: Barring any surprises, the new Cabinet is widely expected to
announce in its Ministerial Statement next week an electoral law that
will shape parliamentary elections to be held this spring.
Currently, there are three possible draft laws for Prime
Minister-designate Najib Mikati's government to choose from.
The first option would be to approve the draft electoral law
presently before Parliament; it proposes the division of Lebanon
into small electoral districts known as qadas paired with a majority
representation system.
Such a law was implemented during the 2000 elections and included
redrawing some electoral districts, particularly in Baabda-Aley
and Beirut.
The 2000 law divided the country into 14 electoral districts, ranging
in size from governorates to qadas.
The current draft law is being championed by members of the
opposition, particularly Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Butros Sfeir
and the Christian Qornet Shehwan Gathering, because they feel it will
guarantee their candidates a victory at the next polls.
It is understood that opposition candidates, particularly Christians
and Druze - who possess a slight majority in their respective
strongholds - can form a majority in Parliament if smaller districts
are designated.
But, this may not be the case if electoral districts are enlarged,
as the opposition risks losing considerable support by having to
forge alliances to guarantee victory.
However, the current draft law is opposed by several loyalist members,
particularly the two Shiite blocs in Parliament, Hizbullah and the
Amal Movement, despite their acceptance of the similar law in 2000.
The second option, which both Hizbullah and Amal have called for, is
the designation of an electoral law of proportional representation in
larger districts known as mohafazat or governorates. (For an example
of how to calculate the appointment of seats in a proportional
representation system, see box on left).
But such a system has never existed in Lebanon and would require
a thorough count of the country's population to accurately divide
the electoral districts, particularly considering the sectarian
requirements for the 128 seats in Parliament.
According to the 1989 Taif Accord, Parliament's 128 seats must be
split 50-50 between Christians and Muslims, with each half required
to include representation of the country's 18 recognized confessions.
Considering the monumental undertaking this system would entail,
observers have said calls for its implementation can only serve to
delay polls.
If the system is implemented in Lebanon, it is expected to be designed
in a way that respects the sectarian division of parliamentary
seats. Several suggestions have been put forward by electoral experts
on how to implement the system, but none has yet been approved.
Proportional representation asks voters to elect one entire list
of candidates as opposed to individual names. It could be applied
on a national level drawing the whole country as a single electoral
district or in large regions known as governorates.
The third option is a possible compromise between the two previous
electoral systems that some observers have said Mikati may suggest.
It considers the implementation of a mixed system, including both
majority and proportional representation.
This system was first implemented in Germany and stipulates the
election of half of Parliament based on a majority system and the
other half based on proportional representation.
Voters would simultaneously elect a candidate that represents
their electoral district and a list that represents their political
affiliations.
But this system has also never been implemented in Lebanon and
would require preparations to explain it to voters and candidates.
Therefore, it could also be seen as a means to delay elections.
Another complication for Mikati's new Cabinet is the fact there is
no clear-cut preference for an electoral law among the loyalists as
a group or among the opposition.
As it now stands, the sectarian division of Parliament is as follows:
Maronite 34, Sunni 27, Shiites 27, Greek Orthodox 14, Greek Catholic
8, Druze 8, Armenian Orthodox 5, Alawite 2, Armenian Catholic 1,
Protestant 1 and Christian Minority 1.