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Al-Jazeerah.info, GA
April 27 2005
Turkish Premier in Israel to Repair Damaged Relations
By K Gajendra Singh
Al-Jazeerah, April 25, 2005
In 1996, strategic dialogue between Israel and Turkey took their
relations almost to the level of allies with Ankara signing numerous
defence deals with Israeli arms industry and the two countries
carrying out joint military exercises. But the illegal US invasion of
Iraq in 2003 changed the regional strategic balance , with Israel
even interfering last year in Iraqi Kurdistan adjoining Turkey's
own turbulent Kurdish region.
Ankara withdrew its ambassador and barred El Al flights to Istanbul
and asked for an explanation. It publicly denounced Israel's policy
of `state terrorism' in Gaza led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. Bilateral relations plummeted . Satisfied, Ankara then took
steps to smoothen its relationship with Tel Aviv .After official
visits to iron out differences during the last 6 months, Erdogan
himself would now visit Israel for two days from 1 May. He had
publicly refused an Israeli invite last year .The visit would provide
an opportunity to repair the damaged bilateral relationship. Erdogan
would also visit Palestine to maintain the balance and Turkey's
self new role as a peace maker in the region.
Fearful of uncertain consequences from Iraq , which could go hay wire
, its own problems for entry into the Europe Union , open ended
position of north Cyprus , which it occupies and the international
outcry about the alleged Armenian genocide at the end of the Ottoman
Empire 90 years ago, Turkey also needs to normalise relations with
Israel .Ankara being its only friend in the region , Tel Aviv had
kept its cool last year. Close relationship between the two countries
in security and defence sectors has survived many vicissitudes over
decades.
Erdogan would be accompanied by Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul and
Trade and Industry Minister Ali Coskun. Gonul would hold talks with
Israeli military officials on the development of joint defense
projects, such as the co-production of Arrow II and Popeye II
missiles. Officials from both sides are scheduled to work out new
counter-terrorism intelligence systems. Nearly a hundred businessmen
would accompany Erdogan to Israel.
Turkey's relations with Israel involve billions of dollars in joint
projects and strategic cooperation. Israel is currently upgrading 170
Turkish M-60 tanks, 54 F-4 fighter planes, and 48 F-5s under a
multi-billion dollar agreement, which also includes exchange of
visits by defence personnel and joint military exercises .
Abdullah Gul, Turkeys`s suave and soft spoken Foreign Minister
visited Israel at the beginning of January to prepare for Erdogan's
visit . After his flare ups against Israel, which duly warned Israel
, Erdogan had sent a delegation of three close advisers to Tel Aviv
in September as a good will gesture.
But , at the same time, Turkey relations with its Nato ally USA
,Israel's umblically linked strategic partner , remain wobbly
.Despite USA's public disapproval , Turkish President Ahmet Necdet
Sezer recently visited Damascus . It was after the Turkish insistence
on the Damascus visit that Erdogan's visit was broken in the
Israeli media in the first week of April, to soothe Israel, which has
also not been happy with the visit.
The official announcement was made in Ankara on 18 April after
Erdogan had telephoned Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to
exchange ideas about the visit . Sharon reportedly told Erdogan, ''I
see many areas to strengthen our relations and cooperation. We
believe you and Turkey will play an important role in the region, and
will have important contribution to peace and stability in the Middle
East. Thus, we attach importance to Turkey's taking part in
developments in the Middle East.'' In return, Prime Minister Erdogan
said, ''I will be pleased if my country contributes to peace
process.''
Apart from Prime Minister Sharon, Erdogan is expected to meet with
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, President Moshe Katsav.
Turkey signed an agreement with Israel on 19 April to buy spy planes
(drones) costing $183 million. It will include three unmanned aerial
vehicle systems and 10 aircrafts, surveillance equipment and ground
control stations, with the Turkish companies providing sub-systems
and services worth 30 % of the cost
Annual trade between the two countries now amounts to over US$1.4
billion, excluding the defense sector. More than 300,000 Israeli
tourists (8% of the population) visit Turkey annually for vacations
to escape tensions at home as they find Turkey quite safe. There are
other important economic deals in the energy sector .Last year, the
two sides signed an agreement for Turkey to sell to Israel more than
50 million cubic meters of water annually for the next 20 years.
A few days before the visit , the Turkish Union of Chambers and
Commodities Exchanges (TOBB) will host Israeli as well as a
Palestinian businessmen delegations in Ankara. The Israeli delegation
would be headed by Israeli Union of Manufacturers chief Shraga Brosh,
while Ahmet Azzghayar, the head of the Federation of Agriculture,
Commerce and Industry Chambers, will lead the Palestinian delegation.
`As political efforts are continuing to seek a solution to the
region's problems, business circles must also get closer to each
other,' said TOBB Chairman Rifat Hisarciklioglu.
Deterioration in Turkish-Israeli relations
When asked by Israel's Haaretz newspaper in a May 2004 interview ,
shortly after Israel's assassination of Hamas' spiritual leader Ahmed
Yassin, if he would define Israel's actions against the Palestinians
as state terrorism. "How else can you interpret it?" Erdogan had
replied.
In his May 25 meeting with Israeli Infrastructure Minister Yousef
Paritzky, Erdogan asked the Israeli minister: "What is the difference
between terrorists who kill Israeli civilians and Israel, which also
kills civilians?" Erdogan had refused to meet with Israeli Deputy
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who was in Ankara in mid-July to mend
Israel's deteriorating relations with Turkey. This was the first
high-level contact after Erdogan repeatedly characterized Israel's
policy in Gaza as "state terrorism".
But it was an article in New Yorker magazine by veteran US journalist
Seymour Hersh about Israel providing training to peshmarga militias
in northern Iraq and running covert operations in neighboring
countries that revealed the brewing differences between Turkey and
Israel. Soon Kurds in Syria created problems for Damascus. The media
reports of interference were denied by both Israel and the Kurdish
leadership in north Iraq. But Turkey was far from convinced. Israel's
case was not helped by other reports that it was infiltrating agents
into Iran's clandestine nuclear-weapons program for information for
possible preemptive strikes by the Israeli air force, believing that
Tehran was about a year away from a breakthrough in that program.
Beirut's Daily Star wrote on July 17, "It appears that Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul, one of Erdogan's closest confidants, was
behind the leak on Israeli interference in Kurdistan, to demonstrate
Ankara's deepening anxiety that Kurdish aspirations of independence
will be fueled by Israeli interference. Indeed, the US debacle in
Iraq is driving neighbors Turkey, Syria and Iran into each other's
arms as all fear chaos in Iraq in the coming months." Israel would
like to have a weak Iraq and even an independent north Iraq.
It added: "Erdogan's government has embarked upon a high-profile
diplomatic effort to bolster relations with the Arab and Muslim
world, which were blighted by Israel's 1996 military agreements with
Turkey. Ankara has settled its disputes with Syria and is seeking to
normalize its often fraught relations with Iran."
Strained relations between Turkey and Israel caused serious concern
in the United States , which wee conveyed by President George W Bush
to Erdogan in Ankara prior to the June North Atlantic Treaty
Organization summit in Istanbul. But then US relations with Ankara
have been on a roller coaster with public airing of differences. The
differences came about after the illegal US invasion of Iraq , a
Muslim country generally friendly to Turkey ,which was opposed by a
massive majority of Turkish population. When Erdogan publicly
criticized Sharon's policies , members of his Justice and
Development party (AKP),which has Islamic roots , were even harsher,
lambasting US policies in Iraq as well. AKP must cater to its own
constituency at home.
The Turkish-Israeli relationship reached a low point when Erdogan
publicly turned down an invitation to visit Israel. Ankara
temporarily withdrew its ambassador and consul general from Israel.
Relations took a turn for the worse when the Israeli airline El Al
had to suspend for two weeks six weekly flights to Turkey from June
24 in a row over security at Istanbul airport.
Turkey's Kurdish problems;
Turkey has serious problems with its own Kurds, who form 20% of the
population. The Kurdish rebellion since 1984 against the Turkish
state, led by Abdullah Ocalan of the Marxist Kurdistan Workers Party
(PKK), has cost more than 37,000 lives, including 5,000 soldiers. The
economy of the Kurdish region in south east was shattered. The cost
of countering the insurgency at its height amounted to between $6
billion and $8 billion a year. Whenever there has been chaos and
instability in north Iraq, as during the Iraq-Iran War in the 1980s
or after the 1991 Gulf War, PKK activity has perked up in Turkey.
The rebellion died down after the arrest and trial of Ocalan in 1999,
when a ceasefire was declared by the PKK and a Turkish court commuted
to life imprisonment the death sentence passed on Ocalan. The Turkish
Parliament also granted rights for the use of the Kurdish language
and took other steps ,thus removing some of the root causes of the
Kurdish rebellion. But the PKK shifted most of its 4,000 cadres to
northern Iraq where they stay put . The United States has not
disarmed them despite promises to Turkey . US wants to reward Iraqi
Kurds, who have remained loyal and peaceful. Iraqi Kurds have been
ambivalent toward the PKK, often helping them . They remain a card to
be used in the region.
US Turkish Relationship ;
Turkish Foreign Ministry Deputy Undersecretary Ali Tuygan went to
Washington to discuss US Turkish relations to discuss bilateral and
other matters including President Sezer's visit to Damascus . In
his speech at Washington's Near East Institute, Tuygan expressed
Turkey's hopes for better relations. It is hoped that Washington
would finalise a date for Erdogan's visit soon .Turkey believes that
to improve Turkish-U.S. relations and counter increasing
anti-American sentiment in Turkey a summit in Washington is necessary
.Turkey is a major power in the region. Ankara remains worried about
US plans to have Iraqi Kurds as new "strategic partner" in the
region.
Turkey has been quite helpful on Afghanistan , where the current ISAF
Commander is Gen. Ethem Karadagli ,a Turk . Hikmet Cetin , a former
Turkish Foreign Minister and Speaker, is NATO `s Senior Civilian
Representative .Erdogan made a second visit to Kabul a few days ago
.He expressed satisfaction at the Turkish military's success in the
face of difficult conditions and investments by Turkish businessmen
in Afghanistan. He added that the country still needed significant
international help for its reconstruction.
Problem of Armenian Genocide;
The alleged killing of between three quarters to one and half million
Armenians in eastern Turkey at the time of the firstworld war between
1915 and 1920 by Turks has become a major international embarrassment
and even a problem for Ankara. It has adversely affected its
relations with many countries and used by some as a lever against
Turkey.
Many Turks feel that `If Turkey accepts the Armenian allegations,
Diaspora Armenians will benefit from this, but Republic of Armenia
will pay for it.' First they expect legal compensation with some
Diaspora organizations expecting billions of dollars. They also
expect right of resettlement in Eastern Turkey. But more than that it
keeps the Diaspora united in its hate of Turkey and revenge .The
author knew many Turkish diplomats who were assassinated by secret
Armenian organizations over decades .
Turks and Turkish historians maintain that more than 500,000 Muslims
were also killed around 1915 by the Armenian armed groups , who had
joined with the invading Russian forces during the first world war.
While accepting it as a tragedy, for which Turkish politicians have
said that they were sorry, they add that many Ottoman officers were
sentenced for their mistakes during the 1915 Resettlement ; some of
them were even executed. They feel that the number of Armenians
killed is intentionally exaggerated by the Armenian Diaspora. Many
died due to the diseases and famine. Many were attacked by the armed
bandits. The Ottoman Government could be criticized for its
Resettlement decision but not accused of genocide.
One example of the affect is that the Turkish Government's gave a
year's extension on the use of Incirlik Airbase by allied forces
under a United Nations resolution on the eve of April 24, the
so-called `Armenian genocide day.' The Armenian lobby in USA
recently stepped up pressure on President Bush on a proposed
congressional resolution urging him to use the term `genocide' in
his remarks on that day. But Ankara believes that despite the
Armenian lobby Congress would not pass a resolution recognizing the
alleged genocide. Gul said that the US Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice had told him said that the US stood with Ankara on the alleged
genocide question.
This agreement grants the US a number of restricted rights for using
the airbase. Ankara has thus side stepped US demand for use of
greater facilities at the base. Gul said that this decision was not a
new development, but just `regulating' the matter. He added that
the military would work with US officials on technical aspects of the
issue.
The discussions in the Parliament for long pending US request for
greater use of the base could have aroused anti-US statements. The
Parliament had rejected on 1 March, 2003 a government motion to allow
USA use of Turkish territory in south east to open a second front
against Iraq .Since then there has been a roller coaster decline in
bilateral relations.
Despite Turkish efforts the Polish Parliament has recognized the
alleged Armenian genocide .Gul expressed his disappointment but added
that Polish Foreign Minister Rotfield had informed him that the
decision was a result of the political stance of some deputies and
that the Parliament was caught unprepared. He assured Gul that the
Polish government `didn't share the same view concerning the
genocide and that that it always supported Ankara.'
The Russian state Duma (Parliament ) passed a resolution on 22 April
denouncing the 1915 genocide following a unanimous vote just ahead of
the start of the 90th anniversary of the massacres in Turkey and
western Armenia on 24 April , when the alleged massacres began.
`The deputies of the State Duma fully denounce the act genocide and
believe that the entire international community should commemorate
the 90th anniversary,' the Interfax news agency quoted from the
resolution.
The deputies described it one the most `tragic' and `cruel'
events of the 20th century. Russia was among the first to recognize
the genocide and remains among a handful of countries that do so .
In 2001 , Parliament in France ,which has an Armenian community of
nearly four hundred thousand , officially recognized the killings as
genocide .It strained ties between Paris and Ankara. Last year,
President Jacque Chirac asked Turkey to recognize the mass killings
otherwise French would keep Turkey out of EU in a referendum. On 22
April the French and Armenian Presidents laid a wreath at a Paris
monument commemorating the genocide.
Erdogan has offered to establish a joint commission consisting of
historians from Turkey and Armenia to look into the question of the
genocide. Armenian President Robert Kocharian welcomed Erdogan's
offer but added that `if Turkey wants to discuss the issue,
Armenia prefers that it be done at the highest level and in the
largest scope possible.' Landlocked Armenia wants to have normal
trade and other relations with Turkey but Ankara is not keen because
of its close relations with Azerbaijan. Armenia occupies Azeri
enclave Nagorno Karabakh and some of its territory .
The United States does not recognize the genocide, although the
Congress has pressed for recognition several times. USA and many
other countries, such as Israel, are reluctant to do so because it
would strain relations with Turkey, which is a NATO member and
influential player in the region.
Conclusion
Erdogan's Justice and Development party (AKP) emerged from the ashes
of four Islamic parties, banned earlier by the secular establishment
led by the armed forces, but it now feels more secure. The AKP
unexpectedly won 2/3 seats in the November 2002 Parliamentary
elections but with only 34% of votes cast. It has consolidated its
hold further based on clean government compared with bribe ridden
asymmetrical coalition governments earlier.
Taking advantage of the European Union requirement to harmonize
Turkey's system to Copenhagen criteria, the AKP has successfully
sidelined the military, which had exercised power through its
domination of the top policy making body, the National Security
Council (NSC ), now reduced to an advisory role. The reduction of
Military role saw clear erosion in the strategic relationship between
Turkey and Israel. Turkish negotiations to enter EU have overall
strengthened Erdogan and his party
Turkey's geographical location gives it many advantages but also
brings in many problems .It has succeeded in reaching an accord with
EU to begin final talks in October , but the problem of north Cyprus
under Turkish military control remains , with Cyprus (Greek) having
been admitted to EU last year . The latter is now creating obstacles
for Turkey's entry into EU .Last year in an April referendum it
rejected a US sponsored solution , which the Turkish side accepted .
Turkey is trying to seek the support of Israel, Russia and the U.S.
to bring north Cyprus out of the limbo like situation in which it
remains isolated .Erdogan had obtained some support from Russian
President Vladimir Putin during the Ankara visit and his own visit
to Moscow later. In his scheduled visit to Moscow on May 10, Erdogan
would solicit further support from Russia even though Putin considers
Cyprus an "internal matter of the EU."
Many times when Turkey expressed desire to buy arms from Europe , it
was denied because of its Kurdish problem or human rights violations
.So Ankara depends on US arms for its major military needs. With
twists and turns and US unpredictability, Turkey wants to continue
its close defence cooperation with Israel , which can often overlook
US pressure.
After 1996, when a strategic dialogue between Israel and Turkey began
and relations reached almost to the level of allies , Ankara signed
numerous deals with the Israeli arms industry . Turkey also looks at
Israel as its partner in this part of the world and, therefore, where
security and economic interests are concerned, the cooperation would
continue.
Yes, the Iraq war and the chaos in and around Iraq have brought about
a rapprochement between Turkey and Iran and Turkey and Syria, in
spite of US opposition. Turkey also pursues a strategy of
strengthening its ties with countries in the east.
But the developments in Iraq would be determined by the growing
insurgency now blossoming into full-fledged resistance against US
occupation .The incipient civil war between Shiites and Sunnis ,
with new President of Iraq Jalal Talbani offering to use Kurdish
peshmargas against mainly Sunni resistance bodes ill for Iraq .Its
breakup would have unforeseen consequences, even beyond the region.
Pepe Escobar wrote on 21 April in Asia Times ; 'The White
House/Pentagon/Green Zone axis wants "shock therapy", deregulation,
wide-ranging privatization, control of Iraqi natural resources, Iraq
reduced to a deregulated capitalist colony with all or most
government properties and services controlled by American
multinationals and all assets held by the foreign lending
institutions that own the majority shares of the Iraqi National Bank.
People who disagree may hit the streets and scream. So much for Iraqi
"democracy". Long live the shadow Iraqi government.'
The quisling Iraqi government will keep on pushing for full
privatization of the Iraqi oil industry , the reason why US invaded
Iraq. Washington also wants 14 military bases to control the region
and its resources .Some fear that SCIRI of Prime Minster designate
Jaafri might have agreed with Washington to give full control of oil
industry to USA in exchange for political power in Iraq. In any case
Bremer laws , which have already done so need ¾ votes in the
Parliament to be undone .The Shiite masses voted for US with drawl
from Iraq ,but its leaders are now soft pedaling on that electoral
promise. But there is Moqtda As- Sadr on the sidelines calling for
exit of US troops. The situation does not look pretty.
But with a stock of nuclear bombs, Egypt shackled and thus
neutralized, Israel a major player in the region would like to have
Turkey on its side. Chaos suits it . Despite universal and legal
opinion against its `Berlin wall - which is taking in more of
the Palestinian territory , it is going ahead with the project .
During his recent visit to Washington , Sharon coolly ignored George
W.Bush's advice against expanding the settlements on Palestinian
land , which have never really ceased .Sharon will make a great show
of evacuating the Gaza strip , which in any case is proving costly
to hold on to. Then it would hang on to as much of West Bank
territory as possible .
(K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and
Azerbaijan in1992 -96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to
Jordan (during the1990 - 91Gulf war), Romania and Senegal. He is
currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. The
views expressed here are his own.- [email protected])
April 27 2005
Turkish Premier in Israel to Repair Damaged Relations
By K Gajendra Singh
Al-Jazeerah, April 25, 2005
In 1996, strategic dialogue between Israel and Turkey took their
relations almost to the level of allies with Ankara signing numerous
defence deals with Israeli arms industry and the two countries
carrying out joint military exercises. But the illegal US invasion of
Iraq in 2003 changed the regional strategic balance , with Israel
even interfering last year in Iraqi Kurdistan adjoining Turkey's
own turbulent Kurdish region.
Ankara withdrew its ambassador and barred El Al flights to Istanbul
and asked for an explanation. It publicly denounced Israel's policy
of `state terrorism' in Gaza led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan. Bilateral relations plummeted . Satisfied, Ankara then took
steps to smoothen its relationship with Tel Aviv .After official
visits to iron out differences during the last 6 months, Erdogan
himself would now visit Israel for two days from 1 May. He had
publicly refused an Israeli invite last year .The visit would provide
an opportunity to repair the damaged bilateral relationship. Erdogan
would also visit Palestine to maintain the balance and Turkey's
self new role as a peace maker in the region.
Fearful of uncertain consequences from Iraq , which could go hay wire
, its own problems for entry into the Europe Union , open ended
position of north Cyprus , which it occupies and the international
outcry about the alleged Armenian genocide at the end of the Ottoman
Empire 90 years ago, Turkey also needs to normalise relations with
Israel .Ankara being its only friend in the region , Tel Aviv had
kept its cool last year. Close relationship between the two countries
in security and defence sectors has survived many vicissitudes over
decades.
Erdogan would be accompanied by Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul and
Trade and Industry Minister Ali Coskun. Gonul would hold talks with
Israeli military officials on the development of joint defense
projects, such as the co-production of Arrow II and Popeye II
missiles. Officials from both sides are scheduled to work out new
counter-terrorism intelligence systems. Nearly a hundred businessmen
would accompany Erdogan to Israel.
Turkey's relations with Israel involve billions of dollars in joint
projects and strategic cooperation. Israel is currently upgrading 170
Turkish M-60 tanks, 54 F-4 fighter planes, and 48 F-5s under a
multi-billion dollar agreement, which also includes exchange of
visits by defence personnel and joint military exercises .
Abdullah Gul, Turkeys`s suave and soft spoken Foreign Minister
visited Israel at the beginning of January to prepare for Erdogan's
visit . After his flare ups against Israel, which duly warned Israel
, Erdogan had sent a delegation of three close advisers to Tel Aviv
in September as a good will gesture.
But , at the same time, Turkey relations with its Nato ally USA
,Israel's umblically linked strategic partner , remain wobbly
.Despite USA's public disapproval , Turkish President Ahmet Necdet
Sezer recently visited Damascus . It was after the Turkish insistence
on the Damascus visit that Erdogan's visit was broken in the
Israeli media in the first week of April, to soothe Israel, which has
also not been happy with the visit.
The official announcement was made in Ankara on 18 April after
Erdogan had telephoned Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to
exchange ideas about the visit . Sharon reportedly told Erdogan, ''I
see many areas to strengthen our relations and cooperation. We
believe you and Turkey will play an important role in the region, and
will have important contribution to peace and stability in the Middle
East. Thus, we attach importance to Turkey's taking part in
developments in the Middle East.'' In return, Prime Minister Erdogan
said, ''I will be pleased if my country contributes to peace
process.''
Apart from Prime Minister Sharon, Erdogan is expected to meet with
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, President Moshe Katsav.
Turkey signed an agreement with Israel on 19 April to buy spy planes
(drones) costing $183 million. It will include three unmanned aerial
vehicle systems and 10 aircrafts, surveillance equipment and ground
control stations, with the Turkish companies providing sub-systems
and services worth 30 % of the cost
Annual trade between the two countries now amounts to over US$1.4
billion, excluding the defense sector. More than 300,000 Israeli
tourists (8% of the population) visit Turkey annually for vacations
to escape tensions at home as they find Turkey quite safe. There are
other important economic deals in the energy sector .Last year, the
two sides signed an agreement for Turkey to sell to Israel more than
50 million cubic meters of water annually for the next 20 years.
A few days before the visit , the Turkish Union of Chambers and
Commodities Exchanges (TOBB) will host Israeli as well as a
Palestinian businessmen delegations in Ankara. The Israeli delegation
would be headed by Israeli Union of Manufacturers chief Shraga Brosh,
while Ahmet Azzghayar, the head of the Federation of Agriculture,
Commerce and Industry Chambers, will lead the Palestinian delegation.
`As political efforts are continuing to seek a solution to the
region's problems, business circles must also get closer to each
other,' said TOBB Chairman Rifat Hisarciklioglu.
Deterioration in Turkish-Israeli relations
When asked by Israel's Haaretz newspaper in a May 2004 interview ,
shortly after Israel's assassination of Hamas' spiritual leader Ahmed
Yassin, if he would define Israel's actions against the Palestinians
as state terrorism. "How else can you interpret it?" Erdogan had
replied.
In his May 25 meeting with Israeli Infrastructure Minister Yousef
Paritzky, Erdogan asked the Israeli minister: "What is the difference
between terrorists who kill Israeli civilians and Israel, which also
kills civilians?" Erdogan had refused to meet with Israeli Deputy
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who was in Ankara in mid-July to mend
Israel's deteriorating relations with Turkey. This was the first
high-level contact after Erdogan repeatedly characterized Israel's
policy in Gaza as "state terrorism".
But it was an article in New Yorker magazine by veteran US journalist
Seymour Hersh about Israel providing training to peshmarga militias
in northern Iraq and running covert operations in neighboring
countries that revealed the brewing differences between Turkey and
Israel. Soon Kurds in Syria created problems for Damascus. The media
reports of interference were denied by both Israel and the Kurdish
leadership in north Iraq. But Turkey was far from convinced. Israel's
case was not helped by other reports that it was infiltrating agents
into Iran's clandestine nuclear-weapons program for information for
possible preemptive strikes by the Israeli air force, believing that
Tehran was about a year away from a breakthrough in that program.
Beirut's Daily Star wrote on July 17, "It appears that Foreign
Minister Abdullah Gul, one of Erdogan's closest confidants, was
behind the leak on Israeli interference in Kurdistan, to demonstrate
Ankara's deepening anxiety that Kurdish aspirations of independence
will be fueled by Israeli interference. Indeed, the US debacle in
Iraq is driving neighbors Turkey, Syria and Iran into each other's
arms as all fear chaos in Iraq in the coming months." Israel would
like to have a weak Iraq and even an independent north Iraq.
It added: "Erdogan's government has embarked upon a high-profile
diplomatic effort to bolster relations with the Arab and Muslim
world, which were blighted by Israel's 1996 military agreements with
Turkey. Ankara has settled its disputes with Syria and is seeking to
normalize its often fraught relations with Iran."
Strained relations between Turkey and Israel caused serious concern
in the United States , which wee conveyed by President George W Bush
to Erdogan in Ankara prior to the June North Atlantic Treaty
Organization summit in Istanbul. But then US relations with Ankara
have been on a roller coaster with public airing of differences. The
differences came about after the illegal US invasion of Iraq , a
Muslim country generally friendly to Turkey ,which was opposed by a
massive majority of Turkish population. When Erdogan publicly
criticized Sharon's policies , members of his Justice and
Development party (AKP),which has Islamic roots , were even harsher,
lambasting US policies in Iraq as well. AKP must cater to its own
constituency at home.
The Turkish-Israeli relationship reached a low point when Erdogan
publicly turned down an invitation to visit Israel. Ankara
temporarily withdrew its ambassador and consul general from Israel.
Relations took a turn for the worse when the Israeli airline El Al
had to suspend for two weeks six weekly flights to Turkey from June
24 in a row over security at Istanbul airport.
Turkey's Kurdish problems;
Turkey has serious problems with its own Kurds, who form 20% of the
population. The Kurdish rebellion since 1984 against the Turkish
state, led by Abdullah Ocalan of the Marxist Kurdistan Workers Party
(PKK), has cost more than 37,000 lives, including 5,000 soldiers. The
economy of the Kurdish region in south east was shattered. The cost
of countering the insurgency at its height amounted to between $6
billion and $8 billion a year. Whenever there has been chaos and
instability in north Iraq, as during the Iraq-Iran War in the 1980s
or after the 1991 Gulf War, PKK activity has perked up in Turkey.
The rebellion died down after the arrest and trial of Ocalan in 1999,
when a ceasefire was declared by the PKK and a Turkish court commuted
to life imprisonment the death sentence passed on Ocalan. The Turkish
Parliament also granted rights for the use of the Kurdish language
and took other steps ,thus removing some of the root causes of the
Kurdish rebellion. But the PKK shifted most of its 4,000 cadres to
northern Iraq where they stay put . The United States has not
disarmed them despite promises to Turkey . US wants to reward Iraqi
Kurds, who have remained loyal and peaceful. Iraqi Kurds have been
ambivalent toward the PKK, often helping them . They remain a card to
be used in the region.
US Turkish Relationship ;
Turkish Foreign Ministry Deputy Undersecretary Ali Tuygan went to
Washington to discuss US Turkish relations to discuss bilateral and
other matters including President Sezer's visit to Damascus . In
his speech at Washington's Near East Institute, Tuygan expressed
Turkey's hopes for better relations. It is hoped that Washington
would finalise a date for Erdogan's visit soon .Turkey believes that
to improve Turkish-U.S. relations and counter increasing
anti-American sentiment in Turkey a summit in Washington is necessary
.Turkey is a major power in the region. Ankara remains worried about
US plans to have Iraqi Kurds as new "strategic partner" in the
region.
Turkey has been quite helpful on Afghanistan , where the current ISAF
Commander is Gen. Ethem Karadagli ,a Turk . Hikmet Cetin , a former
Turkish Foreign Minister and Speaker, is NATO `s Senior Civilian
Representative .Erdogan made a second visit to Kabul a few days ago
.He expressed satisfaction at the Turkish military's success in the
face of difficult conditions and investments by Turkish businessmen
in Afghanistan. He added that the country still needed significant
international help for its reconstruction.
Problem of Armenian Genocide;
The alleged killing of between three quarters to one and half million
Armenians in eastern Turkey at the time of the firstworld war between
1915 and 1920 by Turks has become a major international embarrassment
and even a problem for Ankara. It has adversely affected its
relations with many countries and used by some as a lever against
Turkey.
Many Turks feel that `If Turkey accepts the Armenian allegations,
Diaspora Armenians will benefit from this, but Republic of Armenia
will pay for it.' First they expect legal compensation with some
Diaspora organizations expecting billions of dollars. They also
expect right of resettlement in Eastern Turkey. But more than that it
keeps the Diaspora united in its hate of Turkey and revenge .The
author knew many Turkish diplomats who were assassinated by secret
Armenian organizations over decades .
Turks and Turkish historians maintain that more than 500,000 Muslims
were also killed around 1915 by the Armenian armed groups , who had
joined with the invading Russian forces during the first world war.
While accepting it as a tragedy, for which Turkish politicians have
said that they were sorry, they add that many Ottoman officers were
sentenced for their mistakes during the 1915 Resettlement ; some of
them were even executed. They feel that the number of Armenians
killed is intentionally exaggerated by the Armenian Diaspora. Many
died due to the diseases and famine. Many were attacked by the armed
bandits. The Ottoman Government could be criticized for its
Resettlement decision but not accused of genocide.
One example of the affect is that the Turkish Government's gave a
year's extension on the use of Incirlik Airbase by allied forces
under a United Nations resolution on the eve of April 24, the
so-called `Armenian genocide day.' The Armenian lobby in USA
recently stepped up pressure on President Bush on a proposed
congressional resolution urging him to use the term `genocide' in
his remarks on that day. But Ankara believes that despite the
Armenian lobby Congress would not pass a resolution recognizing the
alleged genocide. Gul said that the US Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice had told him said that the US stood with Ankara on the alleged
genocide question.
This agreement grants the US a number of restricted rights for using
the airbase. Ankara has thus side stepped US demand for use of
greater facilities at the base. Gul said that this decision was not a
new development, but just `regulating' the matter. He added that
the military would work with US officials on technical aspects of the
issue.
The discussions in the Parliament for long pending US request for
greater use of the base could have aroused anti-US statements. The
Parliament had rejected on 1 March, 2003 a government motion to allow
USA use of Turkish territory in south east to open a second front
against Iraq .Since then there has been a roller coaster decline in
bilateral relations.
Despite Turkish efforts the Polish Parliament has recognized the
alleged Armenian genocide .Gul expressed his disappointment but added
that Polish Foreign Minister Rotfield had informed him that the
decision was a result of the political stance of some deputies and
that the Parliament was caught unprepared. He assured Gul that the
Polish government `didn't share the same view concerning the
genocide and that that it always supported Ankara.'
The Russian state Duma (Parliament ) passed a resolution on 22 April
denouncing the 1915 genocide following a unanimous vote just ahead of
the start of the 90th anniversary of the massacres in Turkey and
western Armenia on 24 April , when the alleged massacres began.
`The deputies of the State Duma fully denounce the act genocide and
believe that the entire international community should commemorate
the 90th anniversary,' the Interfax news agency quoted from the
resolution.
The deputies described it one the most `tragic' and `cruel'
events of the 20th century. Russia was among the first to recognize
the genocide and remains among a handful of countries that do so .
In 2001 , Parliament in France ,which has an Armenian community of
nearly four hundred thousand , officially recognized the killings as
genocide .It strained ties between Paris and Ankara. Last year,
President Jacque Chirac asked Turkey to recognize the mass killings
otherwise French would keep Turkey out of EU in a referendum. On 22
April the French and Armenian Presidents laid a wreath at a Paris
monument commemorating the genocide.
Erdogan has offered to establish a joint commission consisting of
historians from Turkey and Armenia to look into the question of the
genocide. Armenian President Robert Kocharian welcomed Erdogan's
offer but added that `if Turkey wants to discuss the issue,
Armenia prefers that it be done at the highest level and in the
largest scope possible.' Landlocked Armenia wants to have normal
trade and other relations with Turkey but Ankara is not keen because
of its close relations with Azerbaijan. Armenia occupies Azeri
enclave Nagorno Karabakh and some of its territory .
The United States does not recognize the genocide, although the
Congress has pressed for recognition several times. USA and many
other countries, such as Israel, are reluctant to do so because it
would strain relations with Turkey, which is a NATO member and
influential player in the region.
Conclusion
Erdogan's Justice and Development party (AKP) emerged from the ashes
of four Islamic parties, banned earlier by the secular establishment
led by the armed forces, but it now feels more secure. The AKP
unexpectedly won 2/3 seats in the November 2002 Parliamentary
elections but with only 34% of votes cast. It has consolidated its
hold further based on clean government compared with bribe ridden
asymmetrical coalition governments earlier.
Taking advantage of the European Union requirement to harmonize
Turkey's system to Copenhagen criteria, the AKP has successfully
sidelined the military, which had exercised power through its
domination of the top policy making body, the National Security
Council (NSC ), now reduced to an advisory role. The reduction of
Military role saw clear erosion in the strategic relationship between
Turkey and Israel. Turkish negotiations to enter EU have overall
strengthened Erdogan and his party
Turkey's geographical location gives it many advantages but also
brings in many problems .It has succeeded in reaching an accord with
EU to begin final talks in October , but the problem of north Cyprus
under Turkish military control remains , with Cyprus (Greek) having
been admitted to EU last year . The latter is now creating obstacles
for Turkey's entry into EU .Last year in an April referendum it
rejected a US sponsored solution , which the Turkish side accepted .
Turkey is trying to seek the support of Israel, Russia and the U.S.
to bring north Cyprus out of the limbo like situation in which it
remains isolated .Erdogan had obtained some support from Russian
President Vladimir Putin during the Ankara visit and his own visit
to Moscow later. In his scheduled visit to Moscow on May 10, Erdogan
would solicit further support from Russia even though Putin considers
Cyprus an "internal matter of the EU."
Many times when Turkey expressed desire to buy arms from Europe , it
was denied because of its Kurdish problem or human rights violations
.So Ankara depends on US arms for its major military needs. With
twists and turns and US unpredictability, Turkey wants to continue
its close defence cooperation with Israel , which can often overlook
US pressure.
After 1996, when a strategic dialogue between Israel and Turkey began
and relations reached almost to the level of allies , Ankara signed
numerous deals with the Israeli arms industry . Turkey also looks at
Israel as its partner in this part of the world and, therefore, where
security and economic interests are concerned, the cooperation would
continue.
Yes, the Iraq war and the chaos in and around Iraq have brought about
a rapprochement between Turkey and Iran and Turkey and Syria, in
spite of US opposition. Turkey also pursues a strategy of
strengthening its ties with countries in the east.
But the developments in Iraq would be determined by the growing
insurgency now blossoming into full-fledged resistance against US
occupation .The incipient civil war between Shiites and Sunnis ,
with new President of Iraq Jalal Talbani offering to use Kurdish
peshmargas against mainly Sunni resistance bodes ill for Iraq .Its
breakup would have unforeseen consequences, even beyond the region.
Pepe Escobar wrote on 21 April in Asia Times ; 'The White
House/Pentagon/Green Zone axis wants "shock therapy", deregulation,
wide-ranging privatization, control of Iraqi natural resources, Iraq
reduced to a deregulated capitalist colony with all or most
government properties and services controlled by American
multinationals and all assets held by the foreign lending
institutions that own the majority shares of the Iraqi National Bank.
People who disagree may hit the streets and scream. So much for Iraqi
"democracy". Long live the shadow Iraqi government.'
The quisling Iraqi government will keep on pushing for full
privatization of the Iraqi oil industry , the reason why US invaded
Iraq. Washington also wants 14 military bases to control the region
and its resources .Some fear that SCIRI of Prime Minster designate
Jaafri might have agreed with Washington to give full control of oil
industry to USA in exchange for political power in Iraq. In any case
Bremer laws , which have already done so need ¾ votes in the
Parliament to be undone .The Shiite masses voted for US with drawl
from Iraq ,but its leaders are now soft pedaling on that electoral
promise. But there is Moqtda As- Sadr on the sidelines calling for
exit of US troops. The situation does not look pretty.
But with a stock of nuclear bombs, Egypt shackled and thus
neutralized, Israel a major player in the region would like to have
Turkey on its side. Chaos suits it . Despite universal and legal
opinion against its `Berlin wall - which is taking in more of
the Palestinian territory , it is going ahead with the project .
During his recent visit to Washington , Sharon coolly ignored George
W.Bush's advice against expanding the settlements on Palestinian
land , which have never really ceased .Sharon will make a great show
of evacuating the Gaza strip , which in any case is proving costly
to hold on to. Then it would hang on to as much of West Bank
territory as possible .
(K Gajendra Singh, served as Indian Ambassador to Turkey and
Azerbaijan in1992 -96. Prior to that, he served as ambassador to
Jordan (during the1990 - 91Gulf war), Romania and Senegal. He is
currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies. The
views expressed here are his own.- [email protected])