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The Messenger, Georgia
Aug 23 2005
Russian base withdrawal concerns Georgia's neighbors
Along with the withdrawal of Russian military bases from Georgia come
radical changes in the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.
This is why Georgia's Caucasian neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan,
are keeping a close eye on the potential consequences of the pullout.
Armenians are worried that the withdrawal of the base from
Akhalkalaki (in a primarily ethnic Armenian area) will further
impoverish the ethnic Armenians living there, while Azerbaijan is
frightened by the prospect of Russians shoring up their forces at
their base in Armenia. The Georgian government must pay heed to the
concerns of both its neighbors and attempt to ease their fears.
The transfer of part of the military equipment housed at the bases in
Georgia to Armenia forced Azerbaijani authorities to radically
increase defense spending. The Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta cites
official statistics that the country's military expenditures have
increased recently by USD 50 million and reached a total of USD 300
million.
According to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, at present, the
Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia, cannot receive all the
military equipment set to be withdrawn from Georgia. Therefore,
additional plots of land have been allocated for storage in the
districts of Tavush, Berd and Ijevan, which are located on the
Azerbaijani border. 24-Saati reports that all of this forces Baku to
not only increase its defense spending, but also strengthen military
cooperation with other countries, in particular the United States and
Turkey.
America, meanwhile, is paying close attention to Azerbaijan. Michael
Baranick, a senior fellow at the National Center for Security
Technologies and Policy at the United States National Defense
University has been reported by Azeri papers has saying, "Azerbaijan
is becoming a very important country for the United States." In his
opinion, if the U.S. must leave Uzbekistan, it could move its bases
to Azerbaijan. Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld is scheduled to visit
Baku later this month, and analysts speculate that Baku may agree to
host American troops during this visit.
The newspaper Rezonansi points out that such a decision would be
beneficial for Azerbaijan because it would kill two birds with one
stone - it would provide a counterweight to Russian forces in Armenia
and would achieve the loyal disposition of the United States prior to
the parliamentary elections scheduled for this November. If an
American base is located on Azerbaijani territory, it will help the
ruling party of President Ilham Aliev score a victory and avoid
opposition threats of a velvet revolution.
Armenian concerns, meanwhile, are the precise opposite of those of
Azerbaijan. Yerevan considers the withdrawal of the Akhalkalaki base
to be a great loss for the largely Armenian population of the
surrounding Javakheti region. The Georgian government has responded
to worries that the pullout of the base would plunge the region into
economic crisis by initiating a program to buy foodstuffs for the
Georgian army from local farmers. In theory, this should be
beneficial for both the local population and the defense ministry.
The structure also promises to employ all Georgian citizens currently
working at the Russian Akhalkalaki base.
As for Georgia's role in this, Tbilisi cannot tell Moscow where to
take its military equipment. So if part of the arms and vehicles
currently housed at the Akhalkalaki base make their way to Armenia,
Azerbaijan will have to take this issue up directly with Russia.
Georgian authorities are sympathetic to Azerbaijan's concerns. For
example, if the railway running through Abkhazia is reopened, many
Georgian experts state that Tbilisi must put forward a proposal for
strict control on the transit of arms to Armenia via this railway.
This is just one of many issues Georgia must deal with during the
withdrawal and it is hoped that the government can mount a
professional and diplomatic response.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
Aug 23 2005
Russian base withdrawal concerns Georgia's neighbors
Along with the withdrawal of Russian military bases from Georgia come
radical changes in the geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus.
This is why Georgia's Caucasian neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan,
are keeping a close eye on the potential consequences of the pullout.
Armenians are worried that the withdrawal of the base from
Akhalkalaki (in a primarily ethnic Armenian area) will further
impoverish the ethnic Armenians living there, while Azerbaijan is
frightened by the prospect of Russians shoring up their forces at
their base in Armenia. The Georgian government must pay heed to the
concerns of both its neighbors and attempt to ease their fears.
The transfer of part of the military equipment housed at the bases in
Georgia to Armenia forced Azerbaijani authorities to radically
increase defense spending. The Russian Nezavisimaya Gazeta cites
official statistics that the country's military expenditures have
increased recently by USD 50 million and reached a total of USD 300
million.
According to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, at present, the
Russian military base in Gyumri, Armenia, cannot receive all the
military equipment set to be withdrawn from Georgia. Therefore,
additional plots of land have been allocated for storage in the
districts of Tavush, Berd and Ijevan, which are located on the
Azerbaijani border. 24-Saati reports that all of this forces Baku to
not only increase its defense spending, but also strengthen military
cooperation with other countries, in particular the United States and
Turkey.
America, meanwhile, is paying close attention to Azerbaijan. Michael
Baranick, a senior fellow at the National Center for Security
Technologies and Policy at the United States National Defense
University has been reported by Azeri papers has saying, "Azerbaijan
is becoming a very important country for the United States." In his
opinion, if the U.S. must leave Uzbekistan, it could move its bases
to Azerbaijan. Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld is scheduled to visit
Baku later this month, and analysts speculate that Baku may agree to
host American troops during this visit.
The newspaper Rezonansi points out that such a decision would be
beneficial for Azerbaijan because it would kill two birds with one
stone - it would provide a counterweight to Russian forces in Armenia
and would achieve the loyal disposition of the United States prior to
the parliamentary elections scheduled for this November. If an
American base is located on Azerbaijani territory, it will help the
ruling party of President Ilham Aliev score a victory and avoid
opposition threats of a velvet revolution.
Armenian concerns, meanwhile, are the precise opposite of those of
Azerbaijan. Yerevan considers the withdrawal of the Akhalkalaki base
to be a great loss for the largely Armenian population of the
surrounding Javakheti region. The Georgian government has responded
to worries that the pullout of the base would plunge the region into
economic crisis by initiating a program to buy foodstuffs for the
Georgian army from local farmers. In theory, this should be
beneficial for both the local population and the defense ministry.
The structure also promises to employ all Georgian citizens currently
working at the Russian Akhalkalaki base.
As for Georgia's role in this, Tbilisi cannot tell Moscow where to
take its military equipment. So if part of the arms and vehicles
currently housed at the Akhalkalaki base make their way to Armenia,
Azerbaijan will have to take this issue up directly with Russia.
Georgian authorities are sympathetic to Azerbaijan's concerns. For
example, if the railway running through Abkhazia is reopened, many
Georgian experts state that Tbilisi must put forward a proposal for
strict control on the transit of arms to Armenia via this railway.
This is just one of many issues Georgia must deal with during the
withdrawal and it is hoped that the government can mount a
professional and diplomatic response.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress