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  • Kocharyan made concessions in vain

    KOCHARYAN MADE CONCESSIONS IN VAIN

    SOURCE: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, August 24, 2005, pp. 1, 5

    by Yury Simonyan, Sokhbet Mamedov

    GEORGIA DOESN'T CARE ABOUT THE INTERESTS OF NEIGHBORS IN THE SOUTH
    CAUCASUS

    The Georgian authorities once again deliberately demonstrated that
    they care little for the interests of their neighbors in the South
    Caucasus. This was made clear at the close of the Eternity 2005 staff
    command exercises, organized this week in Tbilisi on the basis of the
    National Military Academy of the Georgian Defense Ministry for Russia
    and its only military ally in the region Armenia. The exercises were
    dedicated to guarding the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline.
    Interestingly, this happened right after the two-day meeting of
    presidents Mikhail Saakashvili and Robert Kocharyan, which analysts
    took primarily as a demonstration of obvious establishment of closer
    relations between Yerevan and Tbilisi. However, reality is evidently
    a little bit different. Georgia seems to take into account Kocharyan
    but until a certain limit.

    The military exercises in Tbilisi that will last until the end of the
    week include 52 officers of the armed forces of Georgia, Azerbaijan
    and Turkey. Turkey finances the exercises. In the course of the
    exercises servicemen of the three countries the territories of which
    are crossed by the pipeline route are trained to act in emergency
    situations in case of appearance of a threat to the BTC. A special
    program makes provisions for their training to act efficiently in
    case of terrorist acts and subversions. It was planned that military
    specialists of the neighboring countries participating in the BTC
    project would take part in the exercises in Tbilisi at least as
    observers. In the special press release of the Georgian Defense
    Ministry it was reported that the relevant invitations would be sent
    to the military attaches of all diplomatic missions accredited in
    Tbilisi. However, it seemed that organizers of the exercises changed
    their mind at the very last moment.

    Moscow takes the fact of closing of these exercises for
    representatives of Russia as another unfriendly step of the Georgian
    authorities. Alexei Bogaturov, deputy general director of the
    International Security Institute at the Russian Academy of Sciences,
    told us, "Everything is clear at this point." Bogaturov added,
    "Overall, I don't know a single expert or analyst who has hoped that
    Georgian authorities may invite Russia party to such an event.
    Actions of Tbilisi fully correspond to the line pursued by Georgian
    President Mikhail Saakashvili. Georgian authorities want a halt to
    military relations with Russia, have achieved withdrawal of Russian
    bases from Georgian territory and its does not make sense for
    Saakashvili to invite Russia to any joint actions and even to inform
    Moscow about his plans. The German President has an absolutely
    different logic. He wants to show that political activeness of not
    only Georgia but also all Transcaucasian countries is quite possible
    and profitable (both in political and military aspects) even without
    participation of Russia. Saakashvili is permanently trying to create
    a kind of illusory anti-Russian "resistance front." Along with this,
    he himself does not quite understand to what he needs to resist and
    what is the prospect of such front. He simply wants very much to be a
    member of at least something and not a simple member but an initiator
    of a new coalition."

    Azerbaijan preferred not to notice the action of the Georgian party
    because the problem of security of the BTC was much more important.
    With regard to possible threats to the $3-billion project, Baku sees
    at least two such threats. First, these are possible subversions at
    the pipeline on the part of various terrorist organizations. Second,
    this is unregulated Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Incidentally,
    Steven Mann, advisor on energy resources to the US State Department,
    points to this conflict too. In a recent interview with us in Baku,
    Mann said directly that peaceful solution of the problem of
    Nagorno-Karabakh was the most important condition for provision of
    security of the BTC project.

    Taking into account these threats diseased President of Azerbaijan
    Geidar Aliev issued a special decree on April 20, 2002, on working
    out of measures for production of the BTC. At the same time
    responsibility for guarding of the BTC was laid on the State Security
    Service headed by General Vagif Akhundov.

    In any case, later Baku decided that the measures taken were
    insufficient for protection of the pipeline. Because shares of the
    company that has built the BTC belong primarily to Western
    corporations, especially American and British ones, defense
    ministries and special services of the West start taking an active
    part in provision of security of the pipeline. Frequent visits to
    Baku of US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, commander of NATO
    forces in Europe General James Jones and top-ranking officers of the
    Turkish Armed Forces are intended to lay the foundation for creation
    of Caspian Guard in Azerbaijan. These will be special forces to
    provide for security in the entire Caspian region. The role of the
    outpost of the European command of the US, whose zone of
    responsibility includes the Caspian region, is prepared for Caspian
    Guard. The US government plans to spend approximately $100 million on
    creation and functioning of this structure in the next ten years.
    According to available information, headquarters of Caspian Guard
    equipped with the most modern radar will be located in Baku.
    Azerbaijan also does not object to the plans of Pentagon to deploy
    American mobile rapid response groups in the territory of the country
    in the framework of this program. Analysts expect that very soon
    President of Azerbaijan Ilkham Aliev will make the relevant political
    decision. Now Baku prefers not to speak about Russia's interests in
    the region controlled by American soldiers.

    Translated by Pavel Pushkin
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