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BAKU: Aliyev-Kocharian meeting was doomed to failure - Armenian anal

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  • BAKU: Aliyev-Kocharian meeting was doomed to failure - Armenian anal

    ALIYEV-KOCHARIAN MEETING WAS DOOMED TO FAILURE - ARMENIAN ANALYST

    Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
    Aug 30 2005

    Baku, August 29, AssA-Irada

    The meeting of the Azeri and Armenian presidents Ilham Aliyev
    and Robert Kocharian held last Saturday was 'doomed to failure', a
    well-known Armenian political analyst said. "The meeting, held within
    the CIS summit in Kazan, Russia certainly means some progress. But
    both Aliyev and Kocharian understood well that it would be extremely
    difficult to agree upon anything on the eve of the parliament
    election in Azerbaijan", Andranik Migranian told Russian media.
    "The pre-election situation has heated up in Azerbaijan so much that
    any talk of compromises is harshly disapproved there. The meeting
    was therefore doomed to fail beforehand." Asked what Azerbaijan and
    Armenia should do to achieve success in the conflict settlement,
    Migranian said that 'the conflicting sides themselves cannot do
    anything on their own'. "In this case, the decision may be imposed by
    the international community or the status quo in the current situation
    will remain. This may continue until one of the sides decides that
    it is strong enough to solve the problem through military action."
    The analyst said that certain progress in the conflict resolution
    could be achieved if superpowers 'imposed a compromise solution on
    the conflicting sides'. "Without this decision, it is difficult for
    the authorities of Azerbaijan and Armenia to explain to their own
    electorate why they would accept such unfavorable concessions."
    Asked if Russia may step up its mediating role in the conflict
    settlement, Migranian said this country is involved in the process
    anyway. "However, Russia's current potential does not allow doing
    more that it is doing now." "Russia has limited financial, economic
    and military-political potential, not to mention the fact that it has
    almost lost its influence in Georgia and Azerbaijan...Many do not see
    Russia as a country that has a key to the resolution of the Garabagh
    problem any more. Azerbaijan binds greater hopes for Washington or
    Brussels rather than Moscow in this respect." The analyst said that
    the increase of Azerbaijan's military spending stated by President
    Ilham Aliyev earlier is a 'move aimed at pressuring Armenia'.
    Migranian did not rule out that the Azeri government is 'tempted to
    make a decision to fight back'. "When they build up certain military
    potential, they may resort to fighting back", he said.*
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