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RFE/RL Georgia: Zhvania's Death Likely To Affect Balance Of Forces In
Government
Friday, 04 February 2005
By Jean-Christophe Peuch
Zurab Zhvania, the Georgian prime minister who died yesterday in an
apparent gas poisoning accident, was generally viewed as a stabilizing
element in the youthful team that took the reins of power 15 months ago.
Some analysts believe his sudden death is likely to alter the balance of
forces in the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili in favor of
its more radical elements. But would that also affect Georgia's policy
toward its separatist republics?
Prague, 4 February 2005 (RFE/RL) -- In the hours that followed the news
of Zhvania's death, Georgian officials worked hard to dismiss concerns
the sudden loss of the government head would affect the work of the
country's leadership.
Speaking to reporters at the end of a second emergency government
meeting yesterday, Interior Minister Ivane Merabishvili attempted to
project an air of calm.
"The Interior Ministry is continuing work at its usual pace," he said.
"The situation in the country is under our control, and I would not
advise criminal groups to grow bolder. Just today, 14 criminals were
arrested in Tbilisi alone."
Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili, State Minister for Economic
Affairs Kakha Bendukidze, and Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili
conveyed a similar message: Everything is business as usual.
But at an earlier emergency cabinet meeting, Saakashvili hinted at
potential discord, as he solemnly called upon his ministers to remain
united and "support each other."
Later in the day, at a memorial ceremony in Tbilisi's Holy Trinity
Cathedral, Saakashvili said he would temporarily assume the leadership
of the government and sent his team a strongly worded warning.
"It is very important that we stick to the normal pace of life and
normal working practices, that we do not allow any breaches of
discipline to occur," he said. "I want to state categorically that
everyone who will be found in breach of discipline will be held
accountable in accordance with the existing regulations."
Georgian and foreign experts generally agree that Zhvania's death is
likely to create a void in the Georgian leadership and that the absence
of the prime minister may have far-reaching consequences for the
cohesiveness of the ruling team.
Both Zhvania and Saakashvili had repeatedly said their team remained as
closely knit as it had been at the time of President Eduard
Shevardnadze's ouster 15 months ago.
But tensions arose last month (4 January), when Okruashvili publicly
accused several Defense Ministry officials of embezzlement and demanded
their immediate arrest.
The controversy was swiftly glossed over. But some of the officials
targeted by Okruashvili had been appointed by Gela Bezhuashvili and
Giorgi Baramidze, his two predecessors at the head of the Defense
Ministry -- who were also proteges of Zhvania. This sparked speculation
that there was infighting between so-called "radical" and "moderate"
elements in the government.
Okruashvili -- an established hard-liner who belongs to Saakashvili's
inner circle of friends -- took over the Defense Ministry from Baramidze
as a result of last December's security shakeup that saw Merabishvili --
another close ally of the president -- obtain the Interior Ministry post.
A number of analysts suggest Okruashvili has set his sights on the
premiership. Georgia's "Rezonansi" newspaper today included the defense
minister in its list of potential successors to Zhvania.
Saakashvili's choice for Georgia's new head of government will be known
within a week. "Rezonansi" suggested the president may nominate a person
close to the late prime minister -- a choice that would reassure
Georgia's neighbors and foreign partners that political continuity will
be maintained. The daily added, however, that Zhvania's successor could
prove little more than a transitional figure and that he -- or she --
could be replaced after a few months.
Ghia Nodia chairs the Tbilisi-based Caucasian Institute for Peace,
Democracy and Development. In an interview with RFE/RL's Tbilisi bureau
chief Tamar Chikovani, Nodia yesterday said Zhvania's death could upset
the current, healthy balance between the government's two main groups.
"It is true that this is what is generally expected," Nodia says. "And
maybe this is what will happen. In any case, for those people that were
considered close to Zhvania, their influence is likely to decrease.
However, that does not mean that Zhvania's cadres will be purged. Those
two teams used to be a single team before, and the fact that they
eventually became two distinct groups is due to the fact that Zhvania
was acting as a center of attraction. Now that this center of attraction
is gone, members of this group will exist as mere individuals because I
don't think there is among them a single figure capable of maintaining
the unity of the team.'
Zhvania's death has sparked concerns among South Ossetian and Abkhaz
leaders, who suspect Saakashvili may resort to military force in order
to restore Georgia's territorial integrity.
There are particular worries in South Ossetia about Okruashvili, whom
separatists blame for triggering a series of armed clashes last summer
while he was interior minister.
Concerns about the consequences of Zhvania's death have also been heard
in Russia, which supports both secessionist governments.
The chairman of the Russian Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, Konstantin
Kosachev, yesterday said he feared a possible resumption of the Abkhaz
and South Ossetian separatist wars of the early 1990s.
"I met with President Saakashvili last week in Strasbourg, and in the
course of the private meeting we had together, he once again assured me
he was determined to solve these conflicts through political, and not
military, means," Kosachev said. "But how autonomous he is in his
intentions, or to what extent he is under the influence of the hawks
that we know for sure exist in his entourage -- we know them all --
remains to be seen.'
But Nodia says Zhvania's death is unlikely to substantially affect
Georgia's approach in solving its separatist conflicts -- especially
that with South Ossetia.
"I don't think there will be any particular problems on this issue
because both sides have always been aware of this kind of traditional
game between the 'good cop' and the 'bad cop' in which Saakashvili would
issue radical statements and Zhvania follow up with some conciliatory
steps," Nodia says. "This is how it worked with [Ajar leader] Aslan
Abashidze, and this is the way it's working now with [South Ossetian
leader Eduard] Kokoity."
Nodia says in this way, too, Zhvania's death is likely to create a void
that will be difficult to fill.
"It will be relatively hard for Saakashvili to find a political figure
with whom he can have the same distribution of tasks as he had with
Zhvania," Nodia concludes.
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/02/34a12db6-f8b6-4520-a0d6-d21bd4977c32.html
Government
Friday, 04 February 2005
By Jean-Christophe Peuch
Zurab Zhvania, the Georgian prime minister who died yesterday in an
apparent gas poisoning accident, was generally viewed as a stabilizing
element in the youthful team that took the reins of power 15 months ago.
Some analysts believe his sudden death is likely to alter the balance of
forces in the government of President Mikheil Saakashvili in favor of
its more radical elements. But would that also affect Georgia's policy
toward its separatist republics?
Prague, 4 February 2005 (RFE/RL) -- In the hours that followed the news
of Zhvania's death, Georgian officials worked hard to dismiss concerns
the sudden loss of the government head would affect the work of the
country's leadership.
Speaking to reporters at the end of a second emergency government
meeting yesterday, Interior Minister Ivane Merabishvili attempted to
project an air of calm.
"The Interior Ministry is continuing work at its usual pace," he said.
"The situation in the country is under our control, and I would not
advise criminal groups to grow bolder. Just today, 14 criminals were
arrested in Tbilisi alone."
Foreign Minister Salome Zurabishvili, State Minister for Economic
Affairs Kakha Bendukidze, and Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili
conveyed a similar message: Everything is business as usual.
But at an earlier emergency cabinet meeting, Saakashvili hinted at
potential discord, as he solemnly called upon his ministers to remain
united and "support each other."
Later in the day, at a memorial ceremony in Tbilisi's Holy Trinity
Cathedral, Saakashvili said he would temporarily assume the leadership
of the government and sent his team a strongly worded warning.
"It is very important that we stick to the normal pace of life and
normal working practices, that we do not allow any breaches of
discipline to occur," he said. "I want to state categorically that
everyone who will be found in breach of discipline will be held
accountable in accordance with the existing regulations."
Georgian and foreign experts generally agree that Zhvania's death is
likely to create a void in the Georgian leadership and that the absence
of the prime minister may have far-reaching consequences for the
cohesiveness of the ruling team.
Both Zhvania and Saakashvili had repeatedly said their team remained as
closely knit as it had been at the time of President Eduard
Shevardnadze's ouster 15 months ago.
But tensions arose last month (4 January), when Okruashvili publicly
accused several Defense Ministry officials of embezzlement and demanded
their immediate arrest.
The controversy was swiftly glossed over. But some of the officials
targeted by Okruashvili had been appointed by Gela Bezhuashvili and
Giorgi Baramidze, his two predecessors at the head of the Defense
Ministry -- who were also proteges of Zhvania. This sparked speculation
that there was infighting between so-called "radical" and "moderate"
elements in the government.
Okruashvili -- an established hard-liner who belongs to Saakashvili's
inner circle of friends -- took over the Defense Ministry from Baramidze
as a result of last December's security shakeup that saw Merabishvili --
another close ally of the president -- obtain the Interior Ministry post.
A number of analysts suggest Okruashvili has set his sights on the
premiership. Georgia's "Rezonansi" newspaper today included the defense
minister in its list of potential successors to Zhvania.
Saakashvili's choice for Georgia's new head of government will be known
within a week. "Rezonansi" suggested the president may nominate a person
close to the late prime minister -- a choice that would reassure
Georgia's neighbors and foreign partners that political continuity will
be maintained. The daily added, however, that Zhvania's successor could
prove little more than a transitional figure and that he -- or she --
could be replaced after a few months.
Ghia Nodia chairs the Tbilisi-based Caucasian Institute for Peace,
Democracy and Development. In an interview with RFE/RL's Tbilisi bureau
chief Tamar Chikovani, Nodia yesterday said Zhvania's death could upset
the current, healthy balance between the government's two main groups.
"It is true that this is what is generally expected," Nodia says. "And
maybe this is what will happen. In any case, for those people that were
considered close to Zhvania, their influence is likely to decrease.
However, that does not mean that Zhvania's cadres will be purged. Those
two teams used to be a single team before, and the fact that they
eventually became two distinct groups is due to the fact that Zhvania
was acting as a center of attraction. Now that this center of attraction
is gone, members of this group will exist as mere individuals because I
don't think there is among them a single figure capable of maintaining
the unity of the team.'
Zhvania's death has sparked concerns among South Ossetian and Abkhaz
leaders, who suspect Saakashvili may resort to military force in order
to restore Georgia's territorial integrity.
There are particular worries in South Ossetia about Okruashvili, whom
separatists blame for triggering a series of armed clashes last summer
while he was interior minister.
Concerns about the consequences of Zhvania's death have also been heard
in Russia, which supports both secessionist governments.
The chairman of the Russian Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, Konstantin
Kosachev, yesterday said he feared a possible resumption of the Abkhaz
and South Ossetian separatist wars of the early 1990s.
"I met with President Saakashvili last week in Strasbourg, and in the
course of the private meeting we had together, he once again assured me
he was determined to solve these conflicts through political, and not
military, means," Kosachev said. "But how autonomous he is in his
intentions, or to what extent he is under the influence of the hawks
that we know for sure exist in his entourage -- we know them all --
remains to be seen.'
But Nodia says Zhvania's death is unlikely to substantially affect
Georgia's approach in solving its separatist conflicts -- especially
that with South Ossetia.
"I don't think there will be any particular problems on this issue
because both sides have always been aware of this kind of traditional
game between the 'good cop' and the 'bad cop' in which Saakashvili would
issue radical statements and Zhvania follow up with some conciliatory
steps," Nodia says. "This is how it worked with [Ajar leader] Aslan
Abashidze, and this is the way it's working now with [South Ossetian
leader Eduard] Kokoity."
Nodia says in this way, too, Zhvania's death is likely to create a void
that will be difficult to fill.
"It will be relatively hard for Saakashvili to find a political figure
with whom he can have the same distribution of tasks as he had with
Zhvania," Nodia concludes.
http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/02/34a12db6-f8b6-4520-a0d6-d21bd4977c32.html