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BAKU: Azeri expert downplays Russia's efforts to keep CIS alive

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  • BAKU: Azeri expert downplays Russia's efforts to keep CIS alive

    Azeri expert downplays Russia's efforts to keep CIS alive

    Yeni Musavat, Baku
    4 Feb 05

    Text of Kanan report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 4
    February headlined "Putin will not manage to resurrect the CIS" and
    "Rasim Musabayov: 'Azerbaijan's membership of the Collective Security
    Treaty Organization is impossible'"

    Putin's Russia is doing its best to keep the CIS, the only alliance of
    post-Soviet countries, alive. The only entity led by that country is
    the CIS. But experts predict that the CIS, which is getting weaker
    year by year, will no longer be used in the political language soon.

    It cannot but worry our northern neighbour. Putin's Russia is
    increasingly concerned, especially after the democratic changes in
    Ukraine and Georgia. The Putin administration is using every available
    resource to preserve his country's influence on the neighbouring
    states. Our northern neighbour's activity in the CIS has been
    especially intensive after it suffered a setback in Ukraine.

    Some observers are saying that Moscow is trying to use Azerbaijan to
    compensate for its failure in Ukraine. First, Putin is trying to
    incorporate the weak Azerbaijani authorities into his
    military-political bloc. The recent visits to Azerbaijan by Russian
    officials are said to be related to this fact. Incidentally, Russian
    Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov paid an official visit to Baku several
    days ago, and [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev is expected to
    visit Russia soon. At the same time, there are reports that Putin will
    visit Azerbaijan, too. Reports also say that discussions during
    Lavrov's visit were held on the CIS and the prospects of Azerbaijan's
    entry into the Collective Security Treaty Organization [CSTO].

    Commenting on these developments, political analyst Rasim Musabayov
    noted that Russia is doing its utmost to preserve the exhausted
    CIS. Our interviewee is confident that these efforts will be futile.

    "The CIS is an entity that Russia is using to save face in the
    post-Soviet countries, and therefore, it is trying to preserve it in
    any form in order to use it to control the neighbouring countries. But
    its efforts have been fruitless for the past five years."

    The analyst said that Azerbaijan's entry into the CSTO is made
    difficult by Armenia, which is waging a war against Azerbaijan. "On
    the other side, Azerbaijan has not benefited so far from its
    membership of the entity [CIS]. Third, "Azerbaijan's historic ally,
    Turkey, is not a member of the CSTO, and therefore, our membership of
    this organization is impossible".

    However, the expert does not believe that any of the member states
    will quit the CIS states at the moment, because formal membership of
    this "toothless" entity does not hamper the policy of any
    state. That's why, member states do not think it necessary to take
    this step.

    "The present activity of the CIS is not a burden for member states.
    Turkmenistan almost never takes part in CIS meetings. In other words,
    it does not matter to any of the republics whether they are members of
    this organization or not. At present, the Commonwealth has turned into
    an entity whose members meet once a year and talk about this and
    that."

    Musabayov believes that the CIS will continue its work for a certain
    period of time, but will never become a serious and sustainable
    organization. "Because neither Ukraine and Georgia, nor Moldova and
    Azerbaijan want the CIS to become a strong organization. Therefore,
    Russia cannot strengthen this entity. But it is possible to think up
    certain formats in which the CIS can be kept alive. For example,
    Great Britain unites several states in the Commonwealth of
    Nations. France and Spain also keep similar entities. They meet once a
    year and discuss certain issues. It cannot be ruled out that the CIS
    may be preserved in that form. But as I said, Georgia, Ukraine,
    Azerbaijan and Moldova will be against this. These countries see their
    future in integration into Europe and NATO. I do not believe that
    Russia will be able to change this reality."
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