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  • Toward a normalization of Azerbaijan-Iran relations

    Caucaz.com, Georgia
    Feb 14 2005


    Toward a normalization of Azerbaijan-Iran relations

    Gilles Riaux's Column

    By Gilles RIAUX, PhD student at the French Geopolitics Institute -
    Paris 8 University in Paris
    On 14/02/2005


    The recent visit to Iran of Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev, from
    Janurary 24th to 26th 2005, confirms the rapprochement between Tehran
    and Baku. Not only did he meet with the Iranian president Mohammad
    Khatami whom the presidential term of office will be ending soon, but
    Ilham Aliyev also met with le Guide Ali Khameney and Ali Akhbar
    Hashemi Rafsandjani – two of the most influent men of the Islamic
    Republic of Iran.
    Among the topics discussed the major ones were the condemnation of
    the Armenian occupation in Nagorno-Karabagh, the strengthening of
    economic bonds and the cooperation for fight against terrorism, drug
    trafficking and organized crime.

    Furthermore, this visit was a follow up to the one of Khatami in Baku
    in August 2004. This visit ended up on the opening of a consulate of
    the Republic of Azerbaijan in Tabriz and the signing of agreements
    for the improvement of communication infrastructures and energetic
    cooperation between the two countries. Those two official meetings
    show, if not proove, the undeniable rapprochement between Baku and
    Tehran – rapprochement initiated by Heydar Aliyev's visit to Iran,
    early 2002.

    And yet over the 90's, there was an obvious distrust between the two
    capitals. This distrust was at its strongest point in July 2001 when
    an Iranian military ship demanded an oil prospecting ship coming form
    Azerbaijan to get away from the Iran territorial waters.

    At the beginning, Iran saw USSR's fall as a way to expand its
    influence in Central Asia and Caucasus, by taking advantage of their
    religious and cultural common history. Until it was conquered by the
    Russian Empire at the beginning of the 19th century, the current
    territory of the Azerbaijani republic was an integral part of Iran.
    There the major ethnic group of the population is Shiite (the
    Azeris), which is also the main minority in Iran.

    However, the new and weak republics of Central Asia and Caucasus
    choose to strongly assert their national indentity so as to prevent
    any foreign interference. The new president of the Republic of
    Azerbaijan, Abulfaz Elçibey, takes a nationalist stance, especially
    agressive toward Iran. He asks for an Iranian Azerbaijan to secede
    from Iran, and for the creation of a great Azerbaijan of which the
    capital would be Tabriz.

    It is then that Tehran decides to actively support Armenia for the
    Nagorno-Karabagh conflict, in order to defuse a possible secession of
    Iran's Azeris and to weaken the republic of Azerbaijan. Officially,
    Iran takes a neutral stance but as its Minister of Foreign Affairs,
    Mahmud Vae'zi, admitted it, Iran's support to Armenia is dictated by
    domestic issues (source www.durna.info/borders.htm). The Islamic
    Republic turns for good its revolutionary project into a strict
    realism regarding its Foreign policy.

    The coming of power of apparatchik Heydar Aliyev marks a turning
    point for Azerbaijan. He trades the hazardous nationalist policy of
    his predecessor for a realism inherited from a long experience of the
    Soviet system. From this point, he has to bring back on its feet a
    country which is then on its knees and weakened by a territorial
    conflict lost for good.

    So as to succeed in his project to turn Azerbaijan into « a new
    Kuwait », Heydar Aliyev has first to work on the issue of oil
    exportations, in order to provide a stable environment by improving
    its relations with the region's power. Once the difficult BTC oil
    pipeline project passed, Tehran gets that it would never become a
    mandatory partner for Azerbaijan. Indeed despite Iran's outstanding
    location, the USA would never have accepted that Caspian Sea oil
    transit through the territory of the Islamic republic.

    It may be difficult sometimes to understand the Iranian Foreign
    Policy, this one resulting from arrangements between the different
    factions in power. However, Iran being surrounded by the USA and
    ethnic minorities – primarily Azeris - developing cultural claims,
    Tehran is now inclined to improve its relations with Baku.

    This improvement is both following the domestic, and the foreign
    line. And for Iran taking part in stabilizing Caucasus, by the
    resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or the fight against the
    different smuggling that destabilize the region, has become necessary
    since this country wants to be a regional power. It is also a way to
    loosen the American grip.

    Ilham Aliyev's visit to Tabriz, the new Consulate of the Republic of
    Azerbaijan, as well as the mausoleum of Sharyar – key figure of the
    Azeri litterature in Iran, is also helping the domestic line. It gave
    the opportunity to bring to Iran's Azeris goodwill tokens for their
    cultural claims, and to limit the radicalization of Azeri
    nationlists.

    But this apparent normalization conceals still pretty poorly the
    difficulties met by two States which choose a realistic Foreign
    Policy. The position towards the United States and the legal status
    of the Caspian Sea are still the major disagreements which prevent a
    strong alliance between Azerbaijan and Iran.

    --Boundary_(ID_6dSEMU8kYe8EXY+zDO6D7A)--
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