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AzerNews, Azerbaijan
Jan 13 2005
Military mood escalates in Azerbaijan
The fact that Armenia has not withdrawn its armed forces from the
occupied Azerbaijani lands and fails to take a constructive position
in peace talks has generated public opinions in Azerbaijan that
liberation of territories is possible only through military action.
Director of the Center for Political Innovations and Technologies
Mubariz Ahmadoglu says liberation of Upper Garabagh through military
action is possible.
Commenting on the course of peace talks and President Ilham Aliyev's
recent statement calling 2005 "the year of Garabagh", Ahmadoglu said:
"If no diplomatic success is achieved in 2005 at settling the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper Garabagh, Azerbaijan will
choose the military action alternative".
"Aliyev is a pragmatic politician and due to his efforts, very
important processes in the conflict settlement came to the forefront
last year. Thus, Azerbaijan considerably stepped up its diplomacy in
2004 and launched an offensive".
Although early last year Armenia rejected the "from a scratch" and
"stage-by-stage" options of conflict resolution, as the year drew to
an end this country started to favor the latter alternative. It is
not by mere chance that Armenian expert on "stage-by-stage" conflict
settlement Baiburdyan, who earlier headed a department in this
country's Foreign Ministry, was appointed deputy foreign minister
late in 2004. This proves that in light of pressure from the
international community and Azerbaijan's active diplomacy, Armenia is
making changes to its position.
Ahmadoglu stated that the Azerbaijani President is considering not
only negotiations but also other ways of resolving the problem. In
2004, Azerbaijan had made major efforts to build its army and the
2005 state budget designates $250 million for the country's armed
forces, he said.
The political analyst continued that by taking this step, "the
President aims to bring the army to such a level that Armenia will
have to reckon with it. Considering that Armenia's economic situation
will not allow it to bring the level of its armed forces to that of
Azerbaijan, this country is likely to make concessions in peace
talks".
If the negotiating process slows down, Azerbaijan is capable of
applying military technologies and, if this does not bring the
aggressor to reason, will choose the option of open military action.
Call for military action
The Garabagh Liberation Organization (GLO) has developed a Common
Platform on liberating Azerbaijan's lands through military operations
and presented it to the authorities, political parties and public
organizations. Member of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party political
council Aydin Mirzazada says that the Azerbaijani government is
taking the necessary steps to free the occupied lands.
"The GLO calls on the authorities to abandon peace talks with
Armenia. This may lead to Azerbaijan's isolation from the
international arena. Today, the world is built on other principles
and I believe the Azeri government is on the right path."
Deputy chairman of opposition Musavat Party Gabil Huseynli says his
party backs a military-political alternative of the conflict
resolution. "Musavat believes that the potential for peace talks has
not been exhausted yet and hostilities should be resumed only if it
is impossible to achieve a peaceful settlement," he said.
MP, deputy chairman of pro-government Ana Vatan Party Zahid Oruj said
that the GLO proposals to resolve the Garabagh conflict through war
should be appreciated from the viewpoint of consolidating
Azerbaijan's positions.
"At this point the Azerbaijani government is keeping these processes
under control. But the protracted conflict compels the Azerbaijani
people to avail of all means. Therefore, some acquire weapons in
different ways and see a solution in launching a guerilla movement.
The fact that the GLO gives priority to military operations is
natural, as this organization is not a political party and its
activity is related to the Upper Garabagh conflict alone."
Military men back war
Former defense minister, retired General Zaur Rzayev supported the
GLO's proposal on military action and sees this as the only way to
resolve the Garabagh problem.
"Although Akif Naghi [GLO chairman] did not fight in Garabagh, the
organization he leads has good ideas on settling the conflict."
Ex-deputy defense minister, retired Colonel Telman Mehdiyev also said
that Azerbaijan's lands can be liberated only by means of military
action, as Azerbaijani citizens have grown tired of the peace talks
that have gone on for many years, he said.
"The GLO is a part of the Azerbaijani society and just like everyone,
its members are fed up with the negotiations that have been fruitless
so far. We must fight the enemy."
Mehdiyev also said that Azerbaijani army is capable of liberating the
territories and will defeat the enemy if military action resumes.
"The Azerbaijani army showed its power to Armenia by liberating a
part of the occupied lands in 1994."
Possible outcome
Azerbaijanis have always had a high spirit of fighting for their
native lands and liberating occupied territories. The Azerbaijani
people believe that the war has not come to an end yet and that for
certain reasons they have lost the battle, but not the war, which was
waged with Russia but not with Armenia...
Armenia, which is behind Azerbaijan in terms of its population,
fighting capability and financial resources, would not have won the
war without Russia's military and technical assistance and direct
involvement of this country's military forces. Military experts say
the Armenian army has 61,000 servicemen, 15,000 of whom used to live
in Azerbaijani lands currently under Armenian occupation. Presently,
the number of officers in the Azerbaijani army totals 155,000, which
is 2.5 times more than that in the Armenian army.
Being supplied with large quantities of Russian weapons, the Armenian
military was stronger than the Azerbaijan Army 7-8 years ago. But
today, Azerbaijan has created a balance of armament in the army, with
a strong aviation. Military experts claim that Azerbaijan possesses
100 warplanes and 50 helicopters.
Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian acknowledged earlier that
if a war is launched, Armenia will face considerable losses and the
country's present-day economic situation will not allow it to wage
long-term battles.
According to experts' estimates, besides human casualties, a day of
military action will result in financial loss worth $20-25 million
for each country. Thus, the figure will exceed $600 million within a
month.
When comparing the budgets of the two countries, it will clear that
Armenia can wage a war for a month and a half at the most using all
of its resources. Azerbaijan's state budget in 2005 makes up over $2
billion, while the figure in Armenia is $800 million. Moreover, when
comparing the two countries' human resources, which are a decisive
factor in a war, it becomes clear which side will be victorious (the
population of Azerbaijan is over 8 million, while that of Armenia
some 2 million). It should also be taken into consideration that
unlike Armenians, Azerbaijani soldiers would be fighting for their
native lands.
Jan 13 2005
Military mood escalates in Azerbaijan
The fact that Armenia has not withdrawn its armed forces from the
occupied Azerbaijani lands and fails to take a constructive position
in peace talks has generated public opinions in Azerbaijan that
liberation of territories is possible only through military action.
Director of the Center for Political Innovations and Technologies
Mubariz Ahmadoglu says liberation of Upper Garabagh through military
action is possible.
Commenting on the course of peace talks and President Ilham Aliyev's
recent statement calling 2005 "the year of Garabagh", Ahmadoglu said:
"If no diplomatic success is achieved in 2005 at settling the
Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Upper Garabagh, Azerbaijan will
choose the military action alternative".
"Aliyev is a pragmatic politician and due to his efforts, very
important processes in the conflict settlement came to the forefront
last year. Thus, Azerbaijan considerably stepped up its diplomacy in
2004 and launched an offensive".
Although early last year Armenia rejected the "from a scratch" and
"stage-by-stage" options of conflict resolution, as the year drew to
an end this country started to favor the latter alternative. It is
not by mere chance that Armenian expert on "stage-by-stage" conflict
settlement Baiburdyan, who earlier headed a department in this
country's Foreign Ministry, was appointed deputy foreign minister
late in 2004. This proves that in light of pressure from the
international community and Azerbaijan's active diplomacy, Armenia is
making changes to its position.
Ahmadoglu stated that the Azerbaijani President is considering not
only negotiations but also other ways of resolving the problem. In
2004, Azerbaijan had made major efforts to build its army and the
2005 state budget designates $250 million for the country's armed
forces, he said.
The political analyst continued that by taking this step, "the
President aims to bring the army to such a level that Armenia will
have to reckon with it. Considering that Armenia's economic situation
will not allow it to bring the level of its armed forces to that of
Azerbaijan, this country is likely to make concessions in peace
talks".
If the negotiating process slows down, Azerbaijan is capable of
applying military technologies and, if this does not bring the
aggressor to reason, will choose the option of open military action.
Call for military action
The Garabagh Liberation Organization (GLO) has developed a Common
Platform on liberating Azerbaijan's lands through military operations
and presented it to the authorities, political parties and public
organizations. Member of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party political
council Aydin Mirzazada says that the Azerbaijani government is
taking the necessary steps to free the occupied lands.
"The GLO calls on the authorities to abandon peace talks with
Armenia. This may lead to Azerbaijan's isolation from the
international arena. Today, the world is built on other principles
and I believe the Azeri government is on the right path."
Deputy chairman of opposition Musavat Party Gabil Huseynli says his
party backs a military-political alternative of the conflict
resolution. "Musavat believes that the potential for peace talks has
not been exhausted yet and hostilities should be resumed only if it
is impossible to achieve a peaceful settlement," he said.
MP, deputy chairman of pro-government Ana Vatan Party Zahid Oruj said
that the GLO proposals to resolve the Garabagh conflict through war
should be appreciated from the viewpoint of consolidating
Azerbaijan's positions.
"At this point the Azerbaijani government is keeping these processes
under control. But the protracted conflict compels the Azerbaijani
people to avail of all means. Therefore, some acquire weapons in
different ways and see a solution in launching a guerilla movement.
The fact that the GLO gives priority to military operations is
natural, as this organization is not a political party and its
activity is related to the Upper Garabagh conflict alone."
Military men back war
Former defense minister, retired General Zaur Rzayev supported the
GLO's proposal on military action and sees this as the only way to
resolve the Garabagh problem.
"Although Akif Naghi [GLO chairman] did not fight in Garabagh, the
organization he leads has good ideas on settling the conflict."
Ex-deputy defense minister, retired Colonel Telman Mehdiyev also said
that Azerbaijan's lands can be liberated only by means of military
action, as Azerbaijani citizens have grown tired of the peace talks
that have gone on for many years, he said.
"The GLO is a part of the Azerbaijani society and just like everyone,
its members are fed up with the negotiations that have been fruitless
so far. We must fight the enemy."
Mehdiyev also said that Azerbaijani army is capable of liberating the
territories and will defeat the enemy if military action resumes.
"The Azerbaijani army showed its power to Armenia by liberating a
part of the occupied lands in 1994."
Possible outcome
Azerbaijanis have always had a high spirit of fighting for their
native lands and liberating occupied territories. The Azerbaijani
people believe that the war has not come to an end yet and that for
certain reasons they have lost the battle, but not the war, which was
waged with Russia but not with Armenia...
Armenia, which is behind Azerbaijan in terms of its population,
fighting capability and financial resources, would not have won the
war without Russia's military and technical assistance and direct
involvement of this country's military forces. Military experts say
the Armenian army has 61,000 servicemen, 15,000 of whom used to live
in Azerbaijani lands currently under Armenian occupation. Presently,
the number of officers in the Azerbaijani army totals 155,000, which
is 2.5 times more than that in the Armenian army.
Being supplied with large quantities of Russian weapons, the Armenian
military was stronger than the Azerbaijan Army 7-8 years ago. But
today, Azerbaijan has created a balance of armament in the army, with
a strong aviation. Military experts claim that Azerbaijan possesses
100 warplanes and 50 helicopters.
Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisian acknowledged earlier that
if a war is launched, Armenia will face considerable losses and the
country's present-day economic situation will not allow it to wage
long-term battles.
According to experts' estimates, besides human casualties, a day of
military action will result in financial loss worth $20-25 million
for each country. Thus, the figure will exceed $600 million within a
month.
When comparing the budgets of the two countries, it will clear that
Armenia can wage a war for a month and a half at the most using all
of its resources. Azerbaijan's state budget in 2005 makes up over $2
billion, while the figure in Armenia is $800 million. Moreover, when
comparing the two countries' human resources, which are a decisive
factor in a war, it becomes clear which side will be victorious (the
population of Azerbaijan is over 8 million, while that of Armenia
some 2 million). It should also be taken into consideration that
unlike Armenians, Azerbaijani soldiers would be fighting for their
native lands.