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  • Military Conflicts Losing Steam

    Zenit News Agency, Italy
    July 2 2005

    Military Conflicts Losing Steam

    New Report Gives Some Grounds for Optimism

    COLLEGE PARK, Maryland, JULY 2, 2005 (Zenit.org).- In spite of fears
    about global insecurity, the number of armed conflicts continues to
    decline. An overview of the world situation was published June 1 by
    the University of Maryland's Center for International Development and
    Conflict Management.

    Authored by Monty Marshall and Ted Robert Gurr, the report, "Peace
    and Conflict 2005: A Global Survey of Armed Conflicts,
    Self-Determination Movements, and Democracy," notes a number of
    positive trends. Among them:

    -- A decline in the global magnitude of armed conflict, following a
    peak in the early 1990s. Major wars are down from 12 at the end of
    2002 to eight in early 2005. And, according to the report's
    calculations, the general magnitude of global warfare has decreased
    by more than 60% since peaking in the mid-1980s, falling by the end
    of 2004 to its lowest level since the late 1950s. In early 2005 there
    were 18 countries with ongoing major armed conflicts, and in two of
    these there were two ongoing wars, for a total of 20 major armed
    conflicts in the world.

    -- Most democratic regimes established during the 1980s and 1990s
    have endured despite political and economic crises. Moreover, there
    has been an increase in action by popular forces, such as Bolivia,
    Georgia, the Philippines and Ukraine, to promote democratic
    principles and hold leaders accountable.

    -- In the Middle East, democracies in Afghanistan and Iraq have
    gained support, and small steps have been taken toward political
    reform in other Arab autocracies.

    -- Ethnic-based wars for independence, a significant threat to civil
    peace in the 1990s, have continued to decline to their lowest level
    since 1960. In the 2001-2004 period, 13 major self-determination
    conflicts were settled or contained, offset by a half-dozen new or
    renewed campaigns.

    -- Repression and political discrimination against ethnic minorities
    have declined significantly, coinciding with the dramatic decline in
    autocratic regimes since the late 1980s. Since 1950, the number of
    minorities benefiting from policies aimed at remedying past political
    discrimination has increased fivefold.

    The report warned: "These positive trends are no warrant for
    unqualified optimism about the future of world peace." For example,
    there is no guarantee that the strategies that have brought about the
    recent improvements will work in the future, the report said.
    Moreover, there are difficulties in achieving the level of
    international cooperation needed to overcome the challenges to peace.


    Regional trends

    The report uses a system of red and yellow flags to draw attention to
    areas of potential conflict. The 2005 edition gives a red flag to 31
    out of 161 countries surveyed, down from 34 in the 2003 report.
    Seventeen African countries draw a red flag. Other danger spots are
    Armenia, Cambodia, Haiti, Iran, Lebanon and Pakistan.

    Another 51 countries are yellow-flagged, of which 19 are in Africa
    south of the Sahara, 10 in North Africa and the Middle East, and 12
    in the Asia-Pacific region. In short, the report observes, "half the
    world's countries have serious weaknesses that call for international
    scrutiny and engagement."

    One region that is particularly worrying is Africa. "African
    countries have generally low capacity for conflict management and
    continue to face serious and complex challenges to peace and
    stability in 2005," the report said. Yet, it noted that progress has
    been made in increasing regional cooperation. As well, there are
    important differences within the region.

    Moreover, the one thing distinguishing Africa from other regions of
    the world is the newness of its state system, the report said. All
    but four of the 50 African countries gained their independence in the
    latter half of the 20th century. "State building is no simple task,"
    the report observed, "and the building of modern, viable states has
    everywhere, and in all times, been fraught with enormous
    difficulties."

    Muslim countries, meanwhile, were seen as having a profile comparable
    to that of the African countries, with a large number marked out as
    sources of potential conflict. Unlike in Africa, however, armed
    conflict in Muslim regions has declined by more than 60% since 1991,
    a trend similar to the overall global reduction.

    Asia is also a trouble spot. Along with Africa it accounts for most
    of the world's major armed conflicts since the end of the Cold War.

    In South America, several countries have been rocked by economic and
    financial crises leading to mass demonstrations and the resignations
    of elected leaders. In a change with the past, this time the military
    forces have generally stood aside, the report noted.

    Terrorism

    The report noted that terrorism, though it receives a lot of media
    attention, causes relatively few deaths compared to other conflicts.
    There have been 10 incidents in the last seven years that have caused
    more than 100 deaths. During the 1990s there were about 300 deaths
    per year by international terrorism and 3,000 deaths per annum by
    acts of local terrorism.

    In contrast, there were more than 300,000 deaths per annum in warfare
    in the 1990s. Most of the victims were noncombatants. The report does
    acknowledge the potential for danger if terrorists obtain weapons of
    mass destruction, but the probability of this happening remains hard
    to evaluate.

    Overall, the report concluded, even though terrorism causes much
    fear, "our greatest fears can be realized when the state becomes the
    terrorist, or when the powerful weapons created by the state fall
    into the hands of the evildoer."

    Challenges ahead

    The report also outlined a number of challenges that lie ahead. These
    include:

    -- the legacy of wounded societies and failing states as they emerge
    from years of destructive conflict.

    - the unleashed surplus of war personnel and materiel that is
    flooding the global market. This not only fuels organized crime, but
    in general creates security problems.

    -- the ghettoization of large areas of the world where deepening
    poverty and deteriorating social conditions marginalize entire
    populations and severely limit their access to the benefits of the
    global economy.

    -- the severe inequality in the distribution of wealth and resources
    that contributes to the maintenance of autocratic regimes and the
    rise of terrorism and insurgencies throughout the Muslim world.

    -- the accountability and transparency of postwar regimes and the
    implementation of peace accords and integration of disenfranchised
    populations.

    Benedict XVI, in his address May 12 to the diplomatic corps
    accredited to the Holy See, noted his own origins in having lived in
    a country burdened by war. He stated: "I am particularly sensitive to
    dialogue between all human beings in order to overcome every kind of
    conflict and tension and to make our earth an earth of peace and
    brotherhood."

    He urged Christians and political leaders to combine their efforts
    "to achieve a peaceful society, to overcome the temptation of
    confrontation between cultures, races and worlds that are different."


    The Pope noted that the Church continues to proclaim and to defend
    fundamental human rights, which too often continue to be violated in
    many regions. And he pledged: "Rest assured that the Catholic Church
    will continue to offer to cooperate, in her own province and with her
    own means, to safeguard the dignity of every person and to serve the
    common good."
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