Tweet
Iran Can Blow Up Azerbaijan From Within
By Asim Oku, AIA Turkish and Caucasian section
Axis Information and Analysis
30.06.2005
Despite the menacing statements by the confidant of the new Iranian
President, it is unlikely that Tehran will attack Baku. The veiled
influence on the political situation in Azerbaijan seems much more
promising from the point of view of Iran than a direct missile attack.
For this purpose religious and ethnic factors can be effectively used.
In the first case the idea is to bring into play the various groups
of Islamic fundamentalists. Though the Islamic factor as such in
some areas of Azerbaijan possesses a certain "explosive potential",
religious activists have no appreciable influence in the scales of the
Republic as a whole. Besides, most of them are connected not to Iran,
but to the Arab countries or Turkey. As a consequence, the ethnic
factor is much more useful for Tehran. Applying it, an appreciable
result may be achieved in really short terms.
Ethnic Azerbaijanians constitute a little more than 90 % of
Azerbaijan's 8.5 million population. At the same time, about 20
national minorities live in this country. The largest are Lezghin,
Talysh, Russian, Meskhetian Turks and Kurdish. Lezghins, Talyshs and
Kurds are the indigenous inhabitants of Azerbaijan. They compactly
live in areas of the historical dwelling, constituting majority of the
population in some of them. National movements of these peoples were
formed in the first half of the 1990s, but they have been oppressed
by the official Baku.
Lezghin population is concentrated in the northeast part of the
republic. The area of their dwelling adjoins to the border with the
Russian Caucasus, where the most part of Lezghin people live. The
number of this people in Azerbaijan, according to demographers,
reaches about 260 thousand (by the official data from 1999 -
178 thousand). The leaders of national Lezghin movement claim that
their number in Azerbaijan exceeds 800 thousand. Separatist moods of
the local Lezghins in many respects depend on their leaders in the
neighboring Dagestan. Lezghin movement is traditionally exploited
by Russia in its Caucasian policy.
Kurds are living in the western part of Azerbaijan along the border
with Armenia. According to demographers, their population reaches
about 60 thousand (by the official data from 1999 - 13 thousand;
such a huge gap is explained by the high level of assimilation). From
the end of the eighties, Armenia tries to use the "Kurdish factor" in
confrontation with Azerbaijan. Besides the Armenians, Abdullah Ocalan's
PKK has certain influence here, especially on the representatives of
the Kurdish youth.
Talysh people represent the indigenous Iranian population of Azerbaijan
that distinguishes itself from the majority of modern inhabitants of
the Republic having a Turkic origin, language and cultural attributes.
Talysh population is concentrated in the southeast of Azerbaijan near
the border with Iran, where the most of these people live.
In Azerbaijan according to official census of 1999 there was almost
77 thousand Talysh people. According to demographers, the real figure
reaches approximately 250 thousand. However, the leaders of Talysh
national movement in the republic state that there are about 1-1.5
million representatives of this nationality in Azerbaijan.
Because of the discriminative policy of Baku the majority of them
either have lost national consciousness, or are afraid to recognize
themselves openly as Talysh. In the summer of 1993, on the background
of destabilization of political situation in Azerbaijan, leaders
of national movement have declared the establishment of Talysh
Republic. It existed for only two months and has been "abolished"
with the help of Azeri power and security structures following the
instruction of President Aliev.
Ex-president of Talysh Republic Alikram Gummatov is still in prison.
Majority of the other national leaders, who managed to flee, settled
down in Russia, because the Talysh movement was Russian-oriented from
the beginning of the last century. However, receiving no support from
Moscow in 1993, a number of activists of Talysh movement have changed
their alliance to Iranian.
The separatist moods of the above listed peoples, at favorable
coincidence of circumstances can seriously destabilize the situation
in Azerbaijan. And the compact residing of the Lezghin, Kurds and
Talysh at the suburbs of the republic, near the borders with Russia,
Armenia and Iran will ease this plot. These peoples can potentially
be separated from Azerbaijan, enter the structure of the neighboring
states or create their own political formations under the protection
of Azeri neighbors.
Prospective
Results of Iranian presidential elections will inevitably lead to
further confrontation between Tehran and Washington. As a consequence,
Baku will find itself stuck between two smoldering flames. Wave of
"velvet revolutions" that swept over the former Soviet republics is
now threatening to sweep over Azerbaijan. Moreover, on the threshold
of the autumn parliamentary elections, the opposition in this country
has apparently reinforced its activity. A certain guarantor for saving
Ilham Aliev's regime could be his strengthening ties with the US. On
the other hand, the growing rapprochement between Baku and Washington,
particularly in the military sphere, is menacing Iran. To guarantee
its strategic interests, as Jamal Muhammedi has warned, Tehran is
ready to take some "preventive measures". In order not to incite an
open conflict with the Americans, the Iranians' actions won't be
of military but rather of disguised nature. Otherwise speaking, a
new splash of a secret war between the Azeri and the Iranian secret
services is to be expected. In this war Tehran can count on the
assistance of Erevan, and Baku - on the help of Washington.
Main task of the Iranian intelligence will be putting pressure upon
Aliev's regime in order to convince it that it will rather loose from
the strategic alliance with the US then benefit. Azeri Ministry of
National Security (that had undergone a number of important personnel
replacements last April) in its turn will have two tasks. The first one
is tactic: to neutralize opponent's activity, including by operating
on its territory. The second one is strategic: raising the value
of Aliev's regime in the eyes of Washington, in the context of a
potential American-Iranian conflict.
According to the confidant of the new president, Tehran plans first
of all to use the ethnic factor, namely: to provoke the activation
of Talysh national movement. Baku, as it seems, will bet on inflaming
the separatist moods in the Iranian Azerbaijan.
Such clandestine games can turn to be a catastrophe for the whole
of the Caucasus, the Central Asia, and the Middle East. The national
minorities that inhabit Azerbaijan and Iran, are as well present in
considerable numbers in the countries of all these regions.
Caucasus: Destabilization of situation in Azerbaijan, through the
Talysh factor, at the background f the parliamentary elections, can
provoke the Lezghin unrest in the North-East of the Republic. This will
lead to activation of Lezghin national movement in the neighboring
Dagestan. The situation there now is so tense that one match will be
enough to explode the whole of the Russian Caucasus. From there the
flame will inevitably stretch to Georgia. The Osetian problem and
the unity of Vainakh peoples of the Caucasus will favor this process.
Central Asia: Splash of separatism in the Iranian Azerbaijan can
incite the unrest of the Kurds and the Turkmen, who in the beginning
of the 1980s still fiercely opposed the Islamic regime. Turkmen
riots may impact the situation in the neighboring Turkmenistan,
where the popular discontent from Niyazov's dictatorship is at the
rise. Destabilization in this country will be followed by a chain
reaction in the whole of the Central Asia. This region already is at
the edge of the overall explosion, because of the recent aggravation
in the situation in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. From here the flame
of revolutions and ethnic conflicts will threaten the neighbors: the
Chinese Xinjiang (Uighur separatism), and the Northern Afghanistan
(Tajik-Uzbek conflict).
Middle East: Revival of Kurdish national movement in Iran will
inevitably have impact on Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. In all of these
countries the Kurdish problem persists. Its aggravation in Iraq will
favor the raise of confrontation between the Kurds, the Shiites,
and the Sunnites. Tension between the authorities and the Kurdish
minority has been growing in Syria from the last year. A new push
for it was the mysterious death of the Kurdish leader, at the end of
May. In such conditions the unrest in the Iranian Kurdistan may provoke
Kurdish revolt in the North-East of Syria. In the light of worsening
economic crisis, and Damascus' loss of its positions in Lebanon, the
antigovernment acts of Kurds may provoke mass manifestations of the
Sunnite population against the regime of the Allawi minority. Such
a scenario will inevitably have impact on the situation in the
neighboring countries, in particular in Lebanon, and probably - in
Jordan. Such dramatic events in the region cannot possibly pass by
the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. On the one hand, there are large
Shiite communities here that are discriminated. On the other hand,
the radical Islamic opposition reinforces its activity. The Saudi
Arabia is in particular danger.
It is unreasonable to describe the further course of events. Only
taking in account the obligatory in such a case jump of the oil prices,
it is clear that the consequences of this scenario will be felt at
a global scale.
Strange as it is, but trying to hold Baku back from rapprochement
with Washington, Tehran representatives by their threats simply
push Aliev further into the embrace of his only protectors - the
Americans. Thus, either willingly or not, the new Iranian leadership
draws the Apocalypses day nearer and nearer~E
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=201
By Asim Oku, AIA Turkish and Caucasian section
Axis Information and Analysis
30.06.2005
Despite the menacing statements by the confidant of the new Iranian
President, it is unlikely that Tehran will attack Baku. The veiled
influence on the political situation in Azerbaijan seems much more
promising from the point of view of Iran than a direct missile attack.
For this purpose religious and ethnic factors can be effectively used.
In the first case the idea is to bring into play the various groups
of Islamic fundamentalists. Though the Islamic factor as such in
some areas of Azerbaijan possesses a certain "explosive potential",
religious activists have no appreciable influence in the scales of the
Republic as a whole. Besides, most of them are connected not to Iran,
but to the Arab countries or Turkey. As a consequence, the ethnic
factor is much more useful for Tehran. Applying it, an appreciable
result may be achieved in really short terms.
Ethnic Azerbaijanians constitute a little more than 90 % of
Azerbaijan's 8.5 million population. At the same time, about 20
national minorities live in this country. The largest are Lezghin,
Talysh, Russian, Meskhetian Turks and Kurdish. Lezghins, Talyshs and
Kurds are the indigenous inhabitants of Azerbaijan. They compactly
live in areas of the historical dwelling, constituting majority of the
population in some of them. National movements of these peoples were
formed in the first half of the 1990s, but they have been oppressed
by the official Baku.
Lezghin population is concentrated in the northeast part of the
republic. The area of their dwelling adjoins to the border with the
Russian Caucasus, where the most part of Lezghin people live. The
number of this people in Azerbaijan, according to demographers,
reaches about 260 thousand (by the official data from 1999 -
178 thousand). The leaders of national Lezghin movement claim that
their number in Azerbaijan exceeds 800 thousand. Separatist moods of
the local Lezghins in many respects depend on their leaders in the
neighboring Dagestan. Lezghin movement is traditionally exploited
by Russia in its Caucasian policy.
Kurds are living in the western part of Azerbaijan along the border
with Armenia. According to demographers, their population reaches
about 60 thousand (by the official data from 1999 - 13 thousand;
such a huge gap is explained by the high level of assimilation). From
the end of the eighties, Armenia tries to use the "Kurdish factor" in
confrontation with Azerbaijan. Besides the Armenians, Abdullah Ocalan's
PKK has certain influence here, especially on the representatives of
the Kurdish youth.
Talysh people represent the indigenous Iranian population of Azerbaijan
that distinguishes itself from the majority of modern inhabitants of
the Republic having a Turkic origin, language and cultural attributes.
Talysh population is concentrated in the southeast of Azerbaijan near
the border with Iran, where the most of these people live.
In Azerbaijan according to official census of 1999 there was almost
77 thousand Talysh people. According to demographers, the real figure
reaches approximately 250 thousand. However, the leaders of Talysh
national movement in the republic state that there are about 1-1.5
million representatives of this nationality in Azerbaijan.
Because of the discriminative policy of Baku the majority of them
either have lost national consciousness, or are afraid to recognize
themselves openly as Talysh. In the summer of 1993, on the background
of destabilization of political situation in Azerbaijan, leaders
of national movement have declared the establishment of Talysh
Republic. It existed for only two months and has been "abolished"
with the help of Azeri power and security structures following the
instruction of President Aliev.
Ex-president of Talysh Republic Alikram Gummatov is still in prison.
Majority of the other national leaders, who managed to flee, settled
down in Russia, because the Talysh movement was Russian-oriented from
the beginning of the last century. However, receiving no support from
Moscow in 1993, a number of activists of Talysh movement have changed
their alliance to Iranian.
The separatist moods of the above listed peoples, at favorable
coincidence of circumstances can seriously destabilize the situation
in Azerbaijan. And the compact residing of the Lezghin, Kurds and
Talysh at the suburbs of the republic, near the borders with Russia,
Armenia and Iran will ease this plot. These peoples can potentially
be separated from Azerbaijan, enter the structure of the neighboring
states or create their own political formations under the protection
of Azeri neighbors.
Prospective
Results of Iranian presidential elections will inevitably lead to
further confrontation between Tehran and Washington. As a consequence,
Baku will find itself stuck between two smoldering flames. Wave of
"velvet revolutions" that swept over the former Soviet republics is
now threatening to sweep over Azerbaijan. Moreover, on the threshold
of the autumn parliamentary elections, the opposition in this country
has apparently reinforced its activity. A certain guarantor for saving
Ilham Aliev's regime could be his strengthening ties with the US. On
the other hand, the growing rapprochement between Baku and Washington,
particularly in the military sphere, is menacing Iran. To guarantee
its strategic interests, as Jamal Muhammedi has warned, Tehran is
ready to take some "preventive measures". In order not to incite an
open conflict with the Americans, the Iranians' actions won't be
of military but rather of disguised nature. Otherwise speaking, a
new splash of a secret war between the Azeri and the Iranian secret
services is to be expected. In this war Tehran can count on the
assistance of Erevan, and Baku - on the help of Washington.
Main task of the Iranian intelligence will be putting pressure upon
Aliev's regime in order to convince it that it will rather loose from
the strategic alliance with the US then benefit. Azeri Ministry of
National Security (that had undergone a number of important personnel
replacements last April) in its turn will have two tasks. The first one
is tactic: to neutralize opponent's activity, including by operating
on its territory. The second one is strategic: raising the value
of Aliev's regime in the eyes of Washington, in the context of a
potential American-Iranian conflict.
According to the confidant of the new president, Tehran plans first
of all to use the ethnic factor, namely: to provoke the activation
of Talysh national movement. Baku, as it seems, will bet on inflaming
the separatist moods in the Iranian Azerbaijan.
Such clandestine games can turn to be a catastrophe for the whole
of the Caucasus, the Central Asia, and the Middle East. The national
minorities that inhabit Azerbaijan and Iran, are as well present in
considerable numbers in the countries of all these regions.
Caucasus: Destabilization of situation in Azerbaijan, through the
Talysh factor, at the background f the parliamentary elections, can
provoke the Lezghin unrest in the North-East of the Republic. This will
lead to activation of Lezghin national movement in the neighboring
Dagestan. The situation there now is so tense that one match will be
enough to explode the whole of the Russian Caucasus. From there the
flame will inevitably stretch to Georgia. The Osetian problem and
the unity of Vainakh peoples of the Caucasus will favor this process.
Central Asia: Splash of separatism in the Iranian Azerbaijan can
incite the unrest of the Kurds and the Turkmen, who in the beginning
of the 1980s still fiercely opposed the Islamic regime. Turkmen
riots may impact the situation in the neighboring Turkmenistan,
where the popular discontent from Niyazov's dictatorship is at the
rise. Destabilization in this country will be followed by a chain
reaction in the whole of the Central Asia. This region already is at
the edge of the overall explosion, because of the recent aggravation
in the situation in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. From here the flame
of revolutions and ethnic conflicts will threaten the neighbors: the
Chinese Xinjiang (Uighur separatism), and the Northern Afghanistan
(Tajik-Uzbek conflict).
Middle East: Revival of Kurdish national movement in Iran will
inevitably have impact on Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. In all of these
countries the Kurdish problem persists. Its aggravation in Iraq will
favor the raise of confrontation between the Kurds, the Shiites,
and the Sunnites. Tension between the authorities and the Kurdish
minority has been growing in Syria from the last year. A new push
for it was the mysterious death of the Kurdish leader, at the end of
May. In such conditions the unrest in the Iranian Kurdistan may provoke
Kurdish revolt in the North-East of Syria. In the light of worsening
economic crisis, and Damascus' loss of its positions in Lebanon, the
antigovernment acts of Kurds may provoke mass manifestations of the
Sunnite population against the regime of the Allawi minority. Such
a scenario will inevitably have impact on the situation in the
neighboring countries, in particular in Lebanon, and probably - in
Jordan. Such dramatic events in the region cannot possibly pass by
the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. On the one hand, there are large
Shiite communities here that are discriminated. On the other hand,
the radical Islamic opposition reinforces its activity. The Saudi
Arabia is in particular danger.
It is unreasonable to describe the further course of events. Only
taking in account the obligatory in such a case jump of the oil prices,
it is clear that the consequences of this scenario will be felt at
a global scale.
Strange as it is, but trying to hold Baku back from rapprochement
with Washington, Tehran representatives by their threats simply
push Aliev further into the embrace of his only protectors - the
Americans. Thus, either willingly or not, the new Iranian leadership
draws the Apocalypses day nearer and nearer~E
http://www.axisglobe.com/article.asp?article=201