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ANKARA: German realism vs. Turkish naivete

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  • ANKARA: German realism vs. Turkish naivete

    The New Anatolian, Turkey
    June 21 2005


    German realism vs. Turkish naivete
    View: Huseyin Bagci

    Yes, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan is very disappointed with the
    decision of the German Parliament concerning the so-called Armenian
    genocide. Yes, the Turkish public is very disappointed also. But does
    this change anything? The German Parliament was giving the signal
    three months ago when European Union members from Eastern Europe
    accepted the "genocide" in their parliaments, as some German
    opposition Christian Democrat politicians were using the opportunity
    to carry it also to the German Parliament. Indeed, German Chancellor
    Gerhard Schroeder was successful in diverting the debate to other
    directions before he came to Ankara just at the beginning of May with
    a greatbusiness army of 600 investors. Germany was the last
    stronghold in this respect that Turkey should not lose. However,
    first the early elections decision and now the ever-stronger
    Christian Democrats applied such pressure that neither Schroeder nor
    Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer could defend Turkey anymore. In
    other words, German realpolitik made it imperative that the
    Parliament accept the decision without even debating it! So
    naturally!

    The Turkish disappointment does not count for very much. Germany is
    aware that Turks need Germany, and Germany can decide what is right
    for Germany, but not what is right for Turkey. Understandable. What
    is not understandable is how Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan could fall
    into the German trap! Erdogan was really hit very badly by this
    decision. It will have a huge domestic political impact. Than, after
    Cyprus, now also the Armenian issue became a political defeat for
    him. His good brother and friend Schroeder, as the German press
    called it "man-to-man on the Bosphorus," is damaged. Everyone knew
    that Prime Minister Erdogan was so sure that Germany would protect
    him against the other EU countries, and Germany is the advocate for
    the Turkish cause in EU matters. Such a naivete by Erdogan? Yes,
    Erdogan was naive. But politics is no place for naivete. For this you
    should know European history and the European mind. How it is
    functioning and how it is responding requires another expertise. The
    accusation of Erdogan's that this decision of Germany is ethically
    not right, this is true, but who cares about ethics in international
    politics since September 11?

    The public reactions towards the German decision last Friday, like
    the protest in front of the German Embassy in Ankara or the
    demonstration in Berlin, as experience shows will not change
    anything. The reason for that is that Germany is in trouble and
    French and German politics must go hand in hand. Even French
    President Chirac turned his back on Turkey, Germany's shift is just a
    normal one. What is at stake is the future of Europe, not Turkey. The
    summit in Brussels last week showed how Turkey will be gradually
    excluded. It is understandable that the EU will not do anything until
    2013 and the negotiations will start formally this October.

    Why has Germany taken this decision, and what does it means for the
    future? First of all, this decision is damaging Turkish-German
    relations. The trust in German politicians will be questionable.
    After the Christian Democrats come to power, it is expected that
    relations will be further determined not in political terms but in
    political and defense terms. Turkish politics is in a "exclusion
    period" from now on, and the Armenian diaspora will score more
    victories in other EU and non-EU countries. The German decision will
    certainly encourage some other countries. Germany is changing history
    with this decision. At least that they are partly responsible for the
    events of 1915-16 is nothing new. The German word "Volkermord" is
    something which is difficult to translate and understand for Turks.
    Yes, Germany is finishing the legend of "Turkish-German brothers in
    arms" from World War 1. It was never truly accepted by the Germans,
    but accepted one-sidedly by the Turks.

    Yes, there is an ignorance by the EU countries of Turkish history,
    and once again the Turks are "guilty" in the eyes of many EU
    countries.

    Many will not accept it but with this decision of Germany, Turkish-EU
    relations will be never be healthy again. The reason is, one can
    foresee it, that the so-called "Armenian genocide" will become a
    political sine quo non when the day comes that Turkey should join the
    EU. The Cyprus issue is the best example. The EU is acting unjustly
    towards Turkey on the Cyprus issue and will continue to do so, and
    the Turks only blame the EU for having double standards. As our
    saying goes, "Good morning after supper!" (Why did this take you so
    long?)

    Turkish political parties are losing their enthusiasm for the EU.
    They will get more and more anti-EU tendencies. The opposition
    Republican People's Party (CHP) is the latest example of this, and
    definitely others will follow. Who is the loser? Surely the Justice
    and Development (AK) Party government. Both the prime minister and
    foreign minister find it very difficult to tell winner here. The
    second step will be a privileged partnership debate. Turkish-German
    relations will move into a much tenser period. This is Germany's
    decision, not Turkey's. They know what is realpolitik, while the
    Turks on the other side still try to convince the world that ethics
    is important in politics. Again, only Turks can be so naive
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