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Zaman, Turkey
March 11 2005
29th of May, The Cursed Day: France's Referendum On The EU
Constitution
Selcuk Gultasli
By Selcuk Gultasli
The date for France's referendum on the European Union (EU)
Constitution, which not only the Turkish public opinion had been
anxiously awaiting but also that of Europe, at last has been
announced, and the date is: May 29. As soon as I heard the date,
"Lord help us," I said. "Now that those against [Jacques] Chirac have
got this date, they will make the best of it. For us, May 29 means
the date of the conquest of Istanbul, but at least for some European
conservatives, it still means the date of the fall of the Eastern
Roman Empire into the hands of "barbaric" Turks. According to this
ill reasoning, Europe will surrender to the Turks twice in history,
if the French say "yes" in the constitution referendum on May 29.
The opposition is working hard for a "no," telling a lie that if
"yes" is said to the constitution, that would also mean "yes" to
Turkey. "While it was being thought that they had also seized an
important historical symbol, one of the leaders of the French right,
Philippe de Villers, who always has his voice heard, all of a sudden
announced that "Constantinople" was conquered by the Turks on May 29.
The EU is holding its breath and awaiting France's referendum,
because a French "no" would derail the constitution project. We are
also closely watching what the referendum result is going to be,
because the most important station in Turkey's EU journey will be
France. It is quite possible that extreme rightists like [Jean-Marie]
Le Pen and Villers will maintain the relations, or the no relations,
they have established between Turkey and the constitution reform,
that they have kept on the agenda for three months. These debates
will become unpleasant as May 29 approaches. We must be prepared,
because the so-called "Armenian genocide" allegation will mingle in
the process, those known files will be opened in order to put Turkey
on the spot. The anti-Turkey side will then try to turn May 29 into a
referendum to be held 10-15 years later, after the negotiations have
been completed.
Taking a close look at France's referendum "test," Turkey's issue
becomes more fragile. Charles de Gaulle, the founder of the V.
Republic and was qualified as someone who reached the peak of French
politics after Napoleon III, resigned immediately after he could not
achieve what he wanted in the 1969 referendum. In that referendum, 47
percent, that is, 13 percent of the people, said 'yes' and 52.87
percent 'no' to de Gaulle's reform calls. The Maastricht Treaty which
transformed the European
Economic Community (ECC) into the EU, won a "yes" vote by a very slim
(51 percent) margin, and Europe was relieved.
The latest surveys in France show that even though it is not very
rapid, support for the referendum is dwindling. A former prime
minister like Laurent Fabius, one of the important political actors,
can change sides and move from the "yes" camp to the "no" camp. Right
now, it is being observed that support for the referendum has fallen
to around 50 percent.
On condition that a "no" emerges on May 29, and the EU project
suffers a big blow, Turkey's negotiation process would tumble into
turbulence. If the French say "no" or "yes" by the slightest of
margins, at least to a why did a "no" emerge question, the answer
obviously will be "Turkey." While we will be celebrating the conquest
of Istanbul on May 29, we will at the same time be closely watching
the French referendum.
March 11 2005
29th of May, The Cursed Day: France's Referendum On The EU
Constitution
Selcuk Gultasli
By Selcuk Gultasli
The date for France's referendum on the European Union (EU)
Constitution, which not only the Turkish public opinion had been
anxiously awaiting but also that of Europe, at last has been
announced, and the date is: May 29. As soon as I heard the date,
"Lord help us," I said. "Now that those against [Jacques] Chirac have
got this date, they will make the best of it. For us, May 29 means
the date of the conquest of Istanbul, but at least for some European
conservatives, it still means the date of the fall of the Eastern
Roman Empire into the hands of "barbaric" Turks. According to this
ill reasoning, Europe will surrender to the Turks twice in history,
if the French say "yes" in the constitution referendum on May 29.
The opposition is working hard for a "no," telling a lie that if
"yes" is said to the constitution, that would also mean "yes" to
Turkey. "While it was being thought that they had also seized an
important historical symbol, one of the leaders of the French right,
Philippe de Villers, who always has his voice heard, all of a sudden
announced that "Constantinople" was conquered by the Turks on May 29.
The EU is holding its breath and awaiting France's referendum,
because a French "no" would derail the constitution project. We are
also closely watching what the referendum result is going to be,
because the most important station in Turkey's EU journey will be
France. It is quite possible that extreme rightists like [Jean-Marie]
Le Pen and Villers will maintain the relations, or the no relations,
they have established between Turkey and the constitution reform,
that they have kept on the agenda for three months. These debates
will become unpleasant as May 29 approaches. We must be prepared,
because the so-called "Armenian genocide" allegation will mingle in
the process, those known files will be opened in order to put Turkey
on the spot. The anti-Turkey side will then try to turn May 29 into a
referendum to be held 10-15 years later, after the negotiations have
been completed.
Taking a close look at France's referendum "test," Turkey's issue
becomes more fragile. Charles de Gaulle, the founder of the V.
Republic and was qualified as someone who reached the peak of French
politics after Napoleon III, resigned immediately after he could not
achieve what he wanted in the 1969 referendum. In that referendum, 47
percent, that is, 13 percent of the people, said 'yes' and 52.87
percent 'no' to de Gaulle's reform calls. The Maastricht Treaty which
transformed the European
Economic Community (ECC) into the EU, won a "yes" vote by a very slim
(51 percent) margin, and Europe was relieved.
The latest surveys in France show that even though it is not very
rapid, support for the referendum is dwindling. A former prime
minister like Laurent Fabius, one of the important political actors,
can change sides and move from the "yes" camp to the "no" camp. Right
now, it is being observed that support for the referendum has fallen
to around 50 percent.
On condition that a "no" emerges on May 29, and the EU project
suffers a big blow, Turkey's negotiation process would tumble into
turbulence. If the French say "no" or "yes" by the slightest of
margins, at least to a why did a "no" emerge question, the answer
obviously will be "Turkey." While we will be celebrating the conquest
of Istanbul on May 29, we will at the same time be closely watching
the French referendum.