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Armenia tries to influence talks by truce violation - Azeri paper
Yeni Musavat, Baku
14 Mar 05
Text of Zahid report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 14 March
headlined "May the conflict inflame?" and subheaded "Tofiq Zulfuqarov
has clarified the concerns of the American mediator"
There has recently been a dramatic increase in the number of
cease-fire breaches on the front line. The USA which is one of the
countries mediating the conflict is concerned about the fact that the
cease-fire violations have become frequent and even regular. In an
interview with the press several days ago, Steven Mann, the US
co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, said that he is seriously
concerned about the current situation. The diplomat did not even rule
out that the cease-fire violations might inflame the conflict.
Are there grounds for concern? Could the Armenian or the Azerbaijani
leaderships be interested in violating the truce in order to distract
public attention?
While commenting on the issue, the former foreign minister, Tofiq
Zulfuqarov, pointed out the seasonal factor saying that there used to
be similar cases in the past as well.
"This usually happens in May and June but it started a little earlier
this year. In my view, the main reason is that Armenia does not agree
to the stage-by-stage settlement of resolving the conflict, accepted
by Azerbaijan. However, the mediators have been working on this option
for a long time. Back last summer, they proposed that a point on a
referendum be added to the stage-by-stage settlement in order to turn
it [the stage-by-stage option] into the package option. Talks
discussing this issue had been held in Astana and other places until
the end of 2004. Azerbaijan did not accept this option. Therefore,
Armenia is trying to drastically divert the course of the negotiations
by breaching the truce because in this case Armenia might gain an
opportunity to begin the talks discussing the issue from a different
angle," Zulfuqarov said.
The pundit thinks that this approach could suit Armenia and especially
[Armenian President Robert] Kocharyan. "Because he came to power by
speculating about the package option. This is why, I think the
situation is not favourable for Armenia. Incidentally, there were
reports last year that Yerevan had a special plan to provoke
Azerbaijan into taking a retaliatory move. According to the plan,
there was supposed to be a joint session held by the self-proclaimed
[Karabakh] parliament and the Armenian parliament which would adopt a
decision on unification. A plan like this is still possible in the
future," Zulfuqarov said.
Taking into account the political situation in Azerbaijan, could some
political circles be interested in the cease-fire violation or in
temporary tension on the frontline?
Zulfuqarov does not reckon that the Azerbaijani authorities could be
interested in the recent truce violations. "The death of a journalist
has caused serious reaction abroad. The international community has
increased interest in Azerbaijan. If the cease-fire is broken, there
will pay more attention to Azerbaijan. I do not think that this
attention would suit the current authorities because accusations would
mainly be leveled against them," Zulfuqarov said.
Zulfuqarov also noted that all this happens this year, on the
threshold of the [parliamentary] elections. "All political forces,
including the authorities, opposition and international organizations
are busy preparing for the elections. According to my information,
even ambassadors (of the Western countries) to Baku are paying great
attention to the elections and have various plans to participate in
the elections, supporting democratic processes. From this point of
view, this idea does not seem to be real. In any case, I believe that
Azerbaijan will do its best to make sure that truce is not broken from
its side on the threshold of the elections," he said.
Yeni Musavat, Baku
14 Mar 05
Text of Zahid report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 14 March
headlined "May the conflict inflame?" and subheaded "Tofiq Zulfuqarov
has clarified the concerns of the American mediator"
There has recently been a dramatic increase in the number of
cease-fire breaches on the front line. The USA which is one of the
countries mediating the conflict is concerned about the fact that the
cease-fire violations have become frequent and even regular. In an
interview with the press several days ago, Steven Mann, the US
co-chairman of the OSCE Minsk Group, said that he is seriously
concerned about the current situation. The diplomat did not even rule
out that the cease-fire violations might inflame the conflict.
Are there grounds for concern? Could the Armenian or the Azerbaijani
leaderships be interested in violating the truce in order to distract
public attention?
While commenting on the issue, the former foreign minister, Tofiq
Zulfuqarov, pointed out the seasonal factor saying that there used to
be similar cases in the past as well.
"This usually happens in May and June but it started a little earlier
this year. In my view, the main reason is that Armenia does not agree
to the stage-by-stage settlement of resolving the conflict, accepted
by Azerbaijan. However, the mediators have been working on this option
for a long time. Back last summer, they proposed that a point on a
referendum be added to the stage-by-stage settlement in order to turn
it [the stage-by-stage option] into the package option. Talks
discussing this issue had been held in Astana and other places until
the end of 2004. Azerbaijan did not accept this option. Therefore,
Armenia is trying to drastically divert the course of the negotiations
by breaching the truce because in this case Armenia might gain an
opportunity to begin the talks discussing the issue from a different
angle," Zulfuqarov said.
The pundit thinks that this approach could suit Armenia and especially
[Armenian President Robert] Kocharyan. "Because he came to power by
speculating about the package option. This is why, I think the
situation is not favourable for Armenia. Incidentally, there were
reports last year that Yerevan had a special plan to provoke
Azerbaijan into taking a retaliatory move. According to the plan,
there was supposed to be a joint session held by the self-proclaimed
[Karabakh] parliament and the Armenian parliament which would adopt a
decision on unification. A plan like this is still possible in the
future," Zulfuqarov said.
Taking into account the political situation in Azerbaijan, could some
political circles be interested in the cease-fire violation or in
temporary tension on the frontline?
Zulfuqarov does not reckon that the Azerbaijani authorities could be
interested in the recent truce violations. "The death of a journalist
has caused serious reaction abroad. The international community has
increased interest in Azerbaijan. If the cease-fire is broken, there
will pay more attention to Azerbaijan. I do not think that this
attention would suit the current authorities because accusations would
mainly be leveled against them," Zulfuqarov said.
Zulfuqarov also noted that all this happens this year, on the
threshold of the [parliamentary] elections. "All political forces,
including the authorities, opposition and international organizations
are busy preparing for the elections. According to my information,
even ambassadors (of the Western countries) to Baku are paying great
attention to the elections and have various plans to participate in
the elections, supporting democratic processes. From this point of
view, this idea does not seem to be real. In any case, I believe that
Azerbaijan will do its best to make sure that truce is not broken from
its side on the threshold of the elections," he said.