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The Independent Cling to the Unrecognized

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  • The Independent Cling to the Unrecognized

    Kommersant, Russia
    March 18 2005

    The Independent Cling to the Unrecognized


    Moscow wants to strengthen ties with the CIS at the expense of the CIS


    Georgian State Minister for Conflict Resolution Georgy Khaindrava
    expressed alarm on Thursday over the meeting of the leaders of
    Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorny Karabakh that took place in
    Moscow the day before, saying it `will not bring Russia and Georgia
    closer.' The meeting will have impact beyond Georgia. It indicates
    that the Kremlin is implementing its plan to defend its interests in
    the former Soviet Union. The main blow will be directed against
    GUUAM, an organization that, with Western help, seeks to be an
    alternative to the CIS, which is dominated by Russia.


    Khaindrava was in Moscow while the meting of the leaders of the
    unrecognized republics took place. He was taking part in a meeting of
    the cochairmen of the Mixed Control Commission. On Thursday, after
    two days of negotiations, Khaindrava was in high spirits and
    characterized Russia's role in settling the conflicts with the
    breakaway republics as `constructive.'

    Khaindrava even suggested that the long-awaited agreement on
    friendship and cooperation between Moscow and Tbilisi might be signed
    soon. He also mentions two impediments to the agreement that still
    remain: Moscow's support for North Ossetia and Abkhazia and the
    Russian military bases remaining in Georgia. Khaindrava's optimism is
    not misplaced, however. Russia has almost convinced Georgia that its
    bases will be gone by 2008. The foundation of a joint antiterrorism
    center will allow Russia to retain some military presence in Georgia.
    Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili's only complaint is that he
    wants the Russian withdrawal to be completed by 2007, before the 2008
    elections.

    Russia and Georgia are far from agreement on the issue of the
    breakaway republic, however. Georgia's cautious reaction to the
    meeting of the Abkhazian, South Ossetian and Nagorny Karabakh leaders
    suggests that Tbilisi does not yet suspect Moscow's plans.

    Settling the problem of the rebellious autonomies was one of the
    Saakashvili's main pre-election promises. So far, he has succeeded
    only in Ajaria, which had never declared its independence. In Moscow,
    as well as Tskhinvali and Sukhumi, they are concerned that he may
    sanction the use of force there. They say it may happen even this
    summer. It seems that Moscow has decided to take preventive measures.
    Sources in the breakaway republics their leaders may have a new plan,
    to set up a single government with Georgia on the principles of
    federalism and equality, such as exists in Serbia and Montenegro.
    Tbilisi has no such thing in mind, however. The timing for the plan
    is not good either. Montenegro announced it intentions to separate
    from Serbia a few weeks ago. Moscow seems to be counting on its
    success, however. It is important to it that the settlement process
    it is sponsoring be perceived as progressing. The proposal ideally
    should soften Tbilisi's tone in the negotiations.

    This is not the end of Kremlin's foreign policy plans.

    There have been ever growing doubts about Moscow's foreign policy in
    recent years. Moscow explains its setbacks in former Soviet countries
    as the result of increasing Western influence in an area that had
    been considered exclusively Moscow's sphere of influence and sees the
    goal of breaking up the CIS behind it all. The parliamentary
    elections in Moldova, where the side supported by Moscow again lost,
    showed that the tendency is becoming stronger. Meanwhile, Ukraine and
    Georgia have declared a strategic partnership and drawn Moldova into
    it as well.

    The leaders if the Tbilisi-Chisinau-Kiev axis will try to draw in
    still more CIS states. Even though Moscow managed to sow the seeds of
    dissent in the GUUAM organization, founded in the late 1990s with
    Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova, the idea of a
    bright future without Russia remains alive. So Russia is acting more
    decisively. The obvious weak spot in GUUAM is Uzbekistan. Its leader,
    Islam Karimov, although he plays up to the West, is authoritarian and
    not likely to become close to democratic revolutionaries Viktor
    Yushchenko and Saakashvili. Karimov will be reminded of that when he
    visits Moscow at the end of the month as well.

    Russia has ways of influencing the other GUUAM members too. The
    presence of Nogorny Karabakh President Arkady Gukasyan at the meeting
    of the leaders of the Georgian breakaway leaders is a message to
    Azerbaijan (Nagorny Karabakh is claimed by that country), where a
    united opposition is preparing for parliamentary elections this fall.
    Transdniestrian leader Igor Smirnov was unable to attend Wednesday's
    meeting, but he will be present at a similar meeting in April.

    by Alexander Reutov

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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