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Turkey's lurch toward hawkish nationalism confounds EU
Irish Times
Mar 23, 2005
Turkey: An increasing tendency toward gesture politics has dismayed
many Turks, reports Nicholas Birch in Istanbul
When he returned from Brussels last December with a provisional date
to start negotiations with the European Union, many Turks hailed
prime minister Tayyip Erdogan as a miracle worker.
In the 40 years since first applying for membership, they had lurched
from crisis to crisis, from coup to coup. Here, finally, was a leader
whose pro-European sentiments seemed unimpeachable.
Less than a 100 days later, the festivities have been replaced by
general bafflement.
With a decision on Turkey's accession application due this October,
Erdogan and his colleagues haven't even got round to choosing a senior
negotiator yet. Last year they revolutionised Ankara's traditionally
inflexible policy on Cyprus. Now they appear petrified of signing a
customs protocol with the Greek Cypriots.
"Since December they have been treading water", said one EU diplomat.
But it is not just the government's lethargy that troubles observers.
They are equally alarmed by governing party AKP's increasing reliance
on the hawkish discourse and nationalist gesture politics Turks had
hoped were a thing of the past.
Faced with international condemnation when police beat female
protesters on March 6th, Erdogan responded by accusing the Turkish
press of pandering to the West. Down at the environment ministry,
meanwhile, his cabinet colleague raised smirks by removing references
to Armenia and Kurdistan from the scientific names of a local species
of fox and sheep. Vulpes vulpes kurdistanica and ovis armeniana,
Osman Pepe explained, were a threat to national unity.
Shaken by the recent resignations of half a dozen MPs and one cabinet
minister, AKP whips are tightening party discipline. With the leaks
drying up, analysts can only speculate on the reasons behind the
government's apparent change of direction.
For some, Cyprus is the key. Erdogan, they argue, had gone to Brussels
on December 17th hoping his support for pro-European Turkish Cypriots
had finally persuaded the international community that it was Greek
Cyprus, not Turkey, that was responsible for stalling reunification
of the island, divided since 1974.
To an outsider, EU insistence instead that he sign a customs union
with Cyprus seems a mere trifle. To many Turks, it means recognising
a state they believe once tried to wipe out the island's Muslims.
That is a major issue: just last week, Turkey's president cancelled
an official visit to Finland when he heard he would be sharing dinner
with a Greek Cypriot leader.
With almost two-thirds of the seats in parliament, AKP should have
little reason to fear this sort of nationalist backlash. But it is
less powerful than it looks.
Built from the wreckage of a string of traditional anti-western
Islamist parties, AKP owed its success in the 2002 elections to support
for its pro-European policies that extended far beyond its traditional
religious base. Now the demands of supporters - and cadres - seem to
be splitting.
"For many conservative supporters, AKP has done enough on Europe
for the time being", argues Cuneyt Ulsever, a columnist with the
mass-market daily Hurriyet.
"They want the party to concentrate on issues they consider important -
lifting the ban on headscarves in universities, and so on."
It is a current of opinion particularly strong among senior party
officials, around 70 per cent of whom have their political roots in
the unreconstructed political Islam of the 1970s and 1980s.
Political scientist Ihsan Dagi believes AKP's fundamental problem
lies in gauging even its traditional support base. "Opinion polls
regularly show AKP's conservative supporters to be more pro-European
than Turks as a whole", he says. "Yet at the same time, these are
the people more susceptible to nationalist rhetoric."
AKP's efforts to patch up such contradictions have so far been counter
-productive. Last year's aborted plans to criminalise adultery were
just the start of a progressive alienation of mainstream supporters.
"The government must realise that its strength is rooted in support for
its policy of change, not in the party itself", writes Ali Bayramoglu,
a columnist with the Islamist daily Zaman.
With parliamentary opposition in disarray, the government shouldn't
have to worry about its temporary loss of direction. But nature abhors
a vacuum, and in Turkey there is always someone to fill the gap.
Since last August, when Turkey's chief of staff told his men to shut
up, the generals have been unusually quiet. Last week, though, one
pointedly commemorated six Turkish policemen killed by the British
in the first World War. The ceremony had been dropped in the 1950s.
A couple of days later, to the anger of ministers, the general tipped
to take over the top post in a year's time also weighed in with a
criticism of government policy on Iraq.
It could be the start of a trend.
Irish Times
Mar 23, 2005
Turkey: An increasing tendency toward gesture politics has dismayed
many Turks, reports Nicholas Birch in Istanbul
When he returned from Brussels last December with a provisional date
to start negotiations with the European Union, many Turks hailed
prime minister Tayyip Erdogan as a miracle worker.
In the 40 years since first applying for membership, they had lurched
from crisis to crisis, from coup to coup. Here, finally, was a leader
whose pro-European sentiments seemed unimpeachable.
Less than a 100 days later, the festivities have been replaced by
general bafflement.
With a decision on Turkey's accession application due this October,
Erdogan and his colleagues haven't even got round to choosing a senior
negotiator yet. Last year they revolutionised Ankara's traditionally
inflexible policy on Cyprus. Now they appear petrified of signing a
customs protocol with the Greek Cypriots.
"Since December they have been treading water", said one EU diplomat.
But it is not just the government's lethargy that troubles observers.
They are equally alarmed by governing party AKP's increasing reliance
on the hawkish discourse and nationalist gesture politics Turks had
hoped were a thing of the past.
Faced with international condemnation when police beat female
protesters on March 6th, Erdogan responded by accusing the Turkish
press of pandering to the West. Down at the environment ministry,
meanwhile, his cabinet colleague raised smirks by removing references
to Armenia and Kurdistan from the scientific names of a local species
of fox and sheep. Vulpes vulpes kurdistanica and ovis armeniana,
Osman Pepe explained, were a threat to national unity.
Shaken by the recent resignations of half a dozen MPs and one cabinet
minister, AKP whips are tightening party discipline. With the leaks
drying up, analysts can only speculate on the reasons behind the
government's apparent change of direction.
For some, Cyprus is the key. Erdogan, they argue, had gone to Brussels
on December 17th hoping his support for pro-European Turkish Cypriots
had finally persuaded the international community that it was Greek
Cyprus, not Turkey, that was responsible for stalling reunification
of the island, divided since 1974.
To an outsider, EU insistence instead that he sign a customs union
with Cyprus seems a mere trifle. To many Turks, it means recognising
a state they believe once tried to wipe out the island's Muslims.
That is a major issue: just last week, Turkey's president cancelled
an official visit to Finland when he heard he would be sharing dinner
with a Greek Cypriot leader.
With almost two-thirds of the seats in parliament, AKP should have
little reason to fear this sort of nationalist backlash. But it is
less powerful than it looks.
Built from the wreckage of a string of traditional anti-western
Islamist parties, AKP owed its success in the 2002 elections to support
for its pro-European policies that extended far beyond its traditional
religious base. Now the demands of supporters - and cadres - seem to
be splitting.
"For many conservative supporters, AKP has done enough on Europe
for the time being", argues Cuneyt Ulsever, a columnist with the
mass-market daily Hurriyet.
"They want the party to concentrate on issues they consider important -
lifting the ban on headscarves in universities, and so on."
It is a current of opinion particularly strong among senior party
officials, around 70 per cent of whom have their political roots in
the unreconstructed political Islam of the 1970s and 1980s.
Political scientist Ihsan Dagi believes AKP's fundamental problem
lies in gauging even its traditional support base. "Opinion polls
regularly show AKP's conservative supporters to be more pro-European
than Turks as a whole", he says. "Yet at the same time, these are
the people more susceptible to nationalist rhetoric."
AKP's efforts to patch up such contradictions have so far been counter
-productive. Last year's aborted plans to criminalise adultery were
just the start of a progressive alienation of mainstream supporters.
"The government must realise that its strength is rooted in support for
its policy of change, not in the party itself", writes Ali Bayramoglu,
a columnist with the Islamist daily Zaman.
With parliamentary opposition in disarray, the government shouldn't
have to worry about its temporary loss of direction. But nature abhors
a vacuum, and in Turkey there is always someone to fill the gap.
Since last August, when Turkey's chief of staff told his men to shut
up, the generals have been unusually quiet. Last week, though, one
pointedly commemorated six Turkish policemen killed by the British
in the first World War. The ceremony had been dropped in the 1950s.
A couple of days later, to the anger of ministers, the general tipped
to take over the top post in a year's time also weighed in with a
criticism of government policy on Iraq.
It could be the start of a trend.