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SABER RATTLING GROWS LOUDER AROUND ABKHAZIA
--Zaal Anjaparidze
Eurasia Daily Monitor
Monday, May 2, 2005 -- Volume 2, Issue 85
The leadership of Georgia's separatist region Abkhazia is beefing up
its military potential, while the Georgian armed forces are continuing
their military exercise. Televised reports about the Georgian exercises
began with title cards reading "Sukhumi" (capital of Abkhazia) and
"Tskhinvali" (capital of breakaway South Ossetia). Images of military
demonstrations were accompanied by interviews with Georgia's hawkish
defense minister, Irakli Okruashvili, who told the Week's Palette
(April 25-May 1) that his main goal is the restoration of Georgian
territorial integrity "as soon as possible."
Sukhumi responded by announcing its readiness to conduct additional
military exercises that would be "unprecedented in Abkhazian
history." Anatoly Zaitsev, a retired Russian general recruited
as deputy defense minister of Abkhazia, said that the upcoming
military exercise would be far larger-scale than those held April
18-21. However, he did not specify the reasons for or the dates of
the next maneuvers (Caucasus Press, Inter-Press, April 28).
The move from peaceful discussions to saber rattling is undermining
the fragile progress reportedly achieved at the Georgian-Abkhaz
talks in Geneva on April 7-8 under the auspices of the UN
Secretary-General's Group of Friends of Georgia (Russia, United
States, France, Great Britain, and Germany). The final document
produced at those talks again emphasized the need to avoid military
force, activate confidence-building measures, and work toward refugee
return and economic cooperation between Tbilisi and Sukhumi. Sergei
Shamba, Abkhaz minister of foreign affairs and head of the Abkhaz
delegation in Geneva, even traveled to Italy's autonomous South
Tyrol region together with the Georgians to consider using that
region as a possible model for future Georgian-Abkhaz relations. "The
opportunity to start a serious dialogue has appeared. We have not had
a better chance to come to an agreement since the war," said Irakli
Alasania, head of the Tbilisi-based Abkhaz government in-exile and
a participant in the talks. According to him, Georgia has already
prepared a package of proposals for developing trans-border economic
cooperation with Abkhazia, including micro-credit projects allowing
joint Georgian-Abkhaz ventures as a first step for building trust
(Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 11).
Prior to the Geneva talks, Sergei Bagapsh, president of Abkhazia, had
expressed his readiness to meet Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili,
but he later changed his mind and said such a meeting would only be
possible outside of Georgia. Saakashvili, in turn, stated that he would
meet Bagapsh only in Tbilisi (Imedi TV, April 14; gazeta.ru March 30;
Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 11).
Following sharp criticism by Abkhaz Security Council secretary
Stanislav Lakoba, Shamba was forced to explain his participation
in the trip to South Tyrol. Lakoba argued that South Tyrol couldn't
be an example for Sukhumi, because Abkhazia is an independent state
(Regnum.ru, April 18; Resonance, April 19).
Meanwhile, the United States has turned its attention toward Abkhazia,
as U.S. President George W. Bush plans to visit Georgia on May 10. On
April 11, a U.S. delegation that included the State Department's Senior
Advisor for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy, Ambassador Steven Mann,
and U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Richard Miles visited Sukhumi. Yet
after talks with the U.S. delegation, Bagapsh continued to insist
that Abkhazia would not give up its independence. Bagapsh denied
that the U.S. diplomats had invited him to Tbilisi to hold talks with
Saakashvili during Bush's visit (Regnum, Rosbalt, April 11-12). He
also stressed that Russia remains a major mediator in the conflict.
After the talks Bagapsh promptly visited Moscow April 12-13, and on
April 18-21 the Abkhaz army, likely at Moscow's suggestion, conducted
large-scale military exercises as if responding to the visit by the
U.S. diplomats. The military exercise aimed at repelling an imaginary
invasion by Georgian troops. The exercise deployed Abkhaz troops
backed by modern jetfighters, with Russian personnel training the
Abkhaz pilots.
Simultaneously Abkhaz separatists are actively courting Russian and
Turkish investment in hopes of improving the economic situation in
the region. More than 50 Russian construction companies participated
in an April 10-11 exhibition in Sukhumi, and 13 more Turkish firms
have joined Abkhazia's Chamber of Industry and Commerce. However,
heavy crime hinders the inflow of investments. On April 26, Bagapsh
expressed concern about the dire criminal situation in Abkhazia
and took direct control over the investigation into an assault on
a busload of Russian tourists on April 23 (Caucasus Press, April
28; Rosbalt, April 11; Interfax, April 26). On May 28, the foreign
ministers of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Karabakh, and Transnistria
gathered in Sukhumi to prepare for a "presidential summit" in May.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Kodori Valley, a Georgia-controlled
section of Abkhaz territory, is becoming tenser. The Georgian defense
ministry has announced plans to disarm the 400-man local paramilitary
detachment "Monadire" (Hunter). While the ministry considers the unit
to be "ineffective," it has successfully defended the Valley from
multiple Abkhaz attacks since 1994. The detachment refuses to disarm
(Resonance, April 27).
The latest round of Georgian policy swings towards Abkhazia suggest
that while Tbilisi is seeking to regain Abkhazia by political means,
the government has not completely ruled out a military solution.
--Zaal Anjaparidze
Eurasia Daily Monitor
Monday, May 2, 2005 -- Volume 2, Issue 85
The leadership of Georgia's separatist region Abkhazia is beefing up
its military potential, while the Georgian armed forces are continuing
their military exercise. Televised reports about the Georgian exercises
began with title cards reading "Sukhumi" (capital of Abkhazia) and
"Tskhinvali" (capital of breakaway South Ossetia). Images of military
demonstrations were accompanied by interviews with Georgia's hawkish
defense minister, Irakli Okruashvili, who told the Week's Palette
(April 25-May 1) that his main goal is the restoration of Georgian
territorial integrity "as soon as possible."
Sukhumi responded by announcing its readiness to conduct additional
military exercises that would be "unprecedented in Abkhazian
history." Anatoly Zaitsev, a retired Russian general recruited
as deputy defense minister of Abkhazia, said that the upcoming
military exercise would be far larger-scale than those held April
18-21. However, he did not specify the reasons for or the dates of
the next maneuvers (Caucasus Press, Inter-Press, April 28).
The move from peaceful discussions to saber rattling is undermining
the fragile progress reportedly achieved at the Georgian-Abkhaz
talks in Geneva on April 7-8 under the auspices of the UN
Secretary-General's Group of Friends of Georgia (Russia, United
States, France, Great Britain, and Germany). The final document
produced at those talks again emphasized the need to avoid military
force, activate confidence-building measures, and work toward refugee
return and economic cooperation between Tbilisi and Sukhumi. Sergei
Shamba, Abkhaz minister of foreign affairs and head of the Abkhaz
delegation in Geneva, even traveled to Italy's autonomous South
Tyrol region together with the Georgians to consider using that
region as a possible model for future Georgian-Abkhaz relations. "The
opportunity to start a serious dialogue has appeared. We have not had
a better chance to come to an agreement since the war," said Irakli
Alasania, head of the Tbilisi-based Abkhaz government in-exile and
a participant in the talks. According to him, Georgia has already
prepared a package of proposals for developing trans-border economic
cooperation with Abkhazia, including micro-credit projects allowing
joint Georgian-Abkhaz ventures as a first step for building trust
(Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 11).
Prior to the Geneva talks, Sergei Bagapsh, president of Abkhazia, had
expressed his readiness to meet Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili,
but he later changed his mind and said such a meeting would only be
possible outside of Georgia. Saakashvili, in turn, stated that he would
meet Bagapsh only in Tbilisi (Imedi TV, April 14; gazeta.ru March 30;
Nezavisimaya gazeta, April 11).
Following sharp criticism by Abkhaz Security Council secretary
Stanislav Lakoba, Shamba was forced to explain his participation
in the trip to South Tyrol. Lakoba argued that South Tyrol couldn't
be an example for Sukhumi, because Abkhazia is an independent state
(Regnum.ru, April 18; Resonance, April 19).
Meanwhile, the United States has turned its attention toward Abkhazia,
as U.S. President George W. Bush plans to visit Georgia on May 10. On
April 11, a U.S. delegation that included the State Department's Senior
Advisor for Caspian Basin Energy Diplomacy, Ambassador Steven Mann,
and U.S. Ambassador to Georgia Richard Miles visited Sukhumi. Yet
after talks with the U.S. delegation, Bagapsh continued to insist
that Abkhazia would not give up its independence. Bagapsh denied
that the U.S. diplomats had invited him to Tbilisi to hold talks with
Saakashvili during Bush's visit (Regnum, Rosbalt, April 11-12). He
also stressed that Russia remains a major mediator in the conflict.
After the talks Bagapsh promptly visited Moscow April 12-13, and on
April 18-21 the Abkhaz army, likely at Moscow's suggestion, conducted
large-scale military exercises as if responding to the visit by the
U.S. diplomats. The military exercise aimed at repelling an imaginary
invasion by Georgian troops. The exercise deployed Abkhaz troops
backed by modern jetfighters, with Russian personnel training the
Abkhaz pilots.
Simultaneously Abkhaz separatists are actively courting Russian and
Turkish investment in hopes of improving the economic situation in
the region. More than 50 Russian construction companies participated
in an April 10-11 exhibition in Sukhumi, and 13 more Turkish firms
have joined Abkhazia's Chamber of Industry and Commerce. However,
heavy crime hinders the inflow of investments. On April 26, Bagapsh
expressed concern about the dire criminal situation in Abkhazia
and took direct control over the investigation into an assault on
a busload of Russian tourists on April 23 (Caucasus Press, April
28; Rosbalt, April 11; Interfax, April 26). On May 28, the foreign
ministers of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Karabakh, and Transnistria
gathered in Sukhumi to prepare for a "presidential summit" in May.
Meanwhile, the situation in the Kodori Valley, a Georgia-controlled
section of Abkhaz territory, is becoming tenser. The Georgian defense
ministry has announced plans to disarm the 400-man local paramilitary
detachment "Monadire" (Hunter). While the ministry considers the unit
to be "ineffective," it has successfully defended the Valley from
multiple Abkhaz attacks since 1994. The detachment refuses to disarm
(Resonance, April 27).
The latest round of Georgian policy swings towards Abkhazia suggest
that while Tbilisi is seeking to regain Abkhazia by political means,
the government has not completely ruled out a military solution.