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Withdrawal of Russian bases from Georgia: Concession or regularity?

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  • Withdrawal of Russian bases from Georgia: Concession or regularity?

    WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN BASES FROM GEORGIA: CONCESSION OR REGULARITY?

    RIA Novosti, Russia
    May 03, 2005

    MOSCOW. (Anatoly Belyayev, head of analysis, Center for Current
    Politics in Russia, for RIA Novosti) - The foreign ministers of Russia
    and Georgia have announced that their countries might soon agree on
    the timeframe for the withdrawal of Russian troops and equipment from
    Georgia, to begin this year and end by January 1, 2008.

    This only looked like a sensation at first sight. In fact, this
    decision on the part of Russia corresponds to changes in its strategy
    with regard to the post-Soviet states. These changes are the logical
    element of the "curtailment" of Russia's geopolitical ambitions
    in the post-Soviet era, which were crowned with the symbolic and
    unconditional closure of Russian military bases in Cuba and Vietnam
    at the beginning of Putin's first term.

    That decision formalized the new reality: unlike the Soviet Union,
    Russia as a global power could not maintain foreign policy competition
    with the U.S. and had to limit its foreign policy activity and
    influence to the CIS countries.

    At the same time (though too late), Russia launched a policy of
    creating conditions for developing economic relations with the
    friendly CIS countries, designed to accelerate integration in the
    CIS under Russian auspices. This policy took the form of special
    economic relations with Belarus, the collection of VAT in the country
    of destination (for the countries of the Common Economic Space),
    and several other actions.

    But internal political developments in several neighboring states
    removed the elite groups on which Moscow relied in the advance of
    its integration projects. It appears that the Russian leadership
    has become wary of supporting the really and formally friendly elite
    groups in the other neighboring states.

    Unfortunately, Russia is not nurturing friendly elite groups in the
    other countries because it does not have a relevant strategy or a
    system of foreign policy and financial support for such a project.

    In this situation, Russia's only hope is a policy of differentiated
    foreign economic relations with the post-Soviet states, which calls
    for gradually eliminating the foreign policy legacy that prevents
    this new policy from being implemented consistently.

    The development of relations with Georgia could become a pilot project
    of the new Russian foreign policy in the post-Soviet countries. From
    the military-strategic viewpoint, bases in Batumi and Akhalkalaki
    do nothing more than mark Russian military presence in the Caucasus
    region. They could be an element of the system of support for the
    serious and politically important presence of Russia in Armenia
    but can hardly fulfill this function because they are located in
    unfriendly Georgia.

    An agreement with Georgia on the status of these bases during the
    withdrawal period and especially after it could give Russia a chance
    to establish more appropriate and equitable economic relations with
    Georgia. That country is financed by Russian energy supplied at prices
    that are several times lower than global rates.

    Georgia might threaten to establish an energy and foreign trade
    blockade of Armenia, which is friendly with Russia, if Russia refuses
    to deliver cheap energy to Georgia. But an attempt to turn this
    purely economic issue into a foreign policy problem would spotlight
    the anti-Russian nature of the policy.

    A consistent policy pursued by Russia, the weakening of the Saakashvili
    regime, and the presence of a hostile neighbor could create a situation
    where Georgia would be unable to develop without Russia. This would
    show that any Georgian government, if it wants to remain in power for
    a long time, should maintain good relations with its northern neighbor.

    The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and
    may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
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