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Bush surveys ex-Soviet terrain
FT.com site
May 10, 2005
The trip to Moscow by George W. Bush, the US president, will be
portrayed in Russia as an expression of support for his host,
president Vladimir Putin, write Stefan Wagstyl and Guy Dinmore. But
his itinerary may be seen as something of an insult.
Before arriving in Moscow, Mr Bush will visit Latvia and, after
attending Mr Putin's second world war commemorations, will fly to
Georgia. Washington sees both countries as fighters, both in the
global war for democracy and in the regional battle against Russian
reassertion in the former Soviet Union.
Latvia, along with neighbouring Estonia and Lithuania, led the way in
the revolts that precipitated the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991. In
Georgia, the 2003 Rose Revolution, which brought president Mikheil
Saakashvili to power, has launched a new wave of democratic protest in
the region. In particular, the Georgian demonstrators helped inspire
the crowds that this year brought president Viktor Yushchenko to
office in Ukraine's Orange Revolution. The Ukrainian precedent, in
turn, influenced protestors in Kyrgyzstan, who in March drove
president Askar Akayev from power.
Stephen Hadley, Mr Bush's national security adviser, has said the trip
was not intended to send any message to Moscow. Others see it
differently. "This visit is a clear message . . . for the Russians
that the cold war is over," says Gocha Tskitishvili, a Georgian
political analyst.
For Mr Bush, promoting the new order in the former Soviet Union
includes encouraging further democratic change. As Condoleezza Rice,
his secretary of state, made clear on her recent visit to eastern
Europe, top of Washington's list is Belarus. US officials see an
opportunity for the ousting of dictatorial president Alexander
Lukashenko in elections next year. The Kremlin has warned Washington
against interfering in Minsk but the US seems undeterred.
American officials see the democratic changes in the former Soviet
Union as the fruits, to some extent, of US labours to promote civil
society. A former senior official, saying one reason the military
refused to fire on demonstrators in Ukraine was US training, adds:
"The more you can develop a very firm foundation of responsibility and
right s of the individual in civil society, the more you can push
through the argument that free elections count."
However, the US administration balances the drive for democracy with
other priorities, notably its need for oil supplies and the fight
against Islamic terrorism. Criticis m of the authoritarian rulers of
oil-rich Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, where western companies are making
big investments, is muted. In the poor states of Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and, to some extent, Kyrgyzstan, concerns exist that
political unrest could open the way for Islamic fundamentalism. Also,
with Afghanistan lying close to the south, there are fears of
promoting regional instability and violence.
Robert Barry of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington says the US is not putting special emphasis on
democratising central Asia. "We have emphasised the geopolitical side
of this area more than democratisation."
For Moscow that is a crumb of comfort because it, too, worries about
Islamism and instability. But the Kremlin will be angered by Mr Bush's
efforts to promote democracy elsewhere. The US president may have
agreed to stand on the podium in Red Square on Monday but that will
not stop him marching about the former Soviet Union pretty much as he
wishes.
FT.com site
May 10, 2005
The trip to Moscow by George W. Bush, the US president, will be
portrayed in Russia as an expression of support for his host,
president Vladimir Putin, write Stefan Wagstyl and Guy Dinmore. But
his itinerary may be seen as something of an insult.
Before arriving in Moscow, Mr Bush will visit Latvia and, after
attending Mr Putin's second world war commemorations, will fly to
Georgia. Washington sees both countries as fighters, both in the
global war for democracy and in the regional battle against Russian
reassertion in the former Soviet Union.
Latvia, along with neighbouring Estonia and Lithuania, led the way in
the revolts that precipitated the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991. In
Georgia, the 2003 Rose Revolution, which brought president Mikheil
Saakashvili to power, has launched a new wave of democratic protest in
the region. In particular, the Georgian demonstrators helped inspire
the crowds that this year brought president Viktor Yushchenko to
office in Ukraine's Orange Revolution. The Ukrainian precedent, in
turn, influenced protestors in Kyrgyzstan, who in March drove
president Askar Akayev from power.
Stephen Hadley, Mr Bush's national security adviser, has said the trip
was not intended to send any message to Moscow. Others see it
differently. "This visit is a clear message . . . for the Russians
that the cold war is over," says Gocha Tskitishvili, a Georgian
political analyst.
For Mr Bush, promoting the new order in the former Soviet Union
includes encouraging further democratic change. As Condoleezza Rice,
his secretary of state, made clear on her recent visit to eastern
Europe, top of Washington's list is Belarus. US officials see an
opportunity for the ousting of dictatorial president Alexander
Lukashenko in elections next year. The Kremlin has warned Washington
against interfering in Minsk but the US seems undeterred.
American officials see the democratic changes in the former Soviet
Union as the fruits, to some extent, of US labours to promote civil
society. A former senior official, saying one reason the military
refused to fire on demonstrators in Ukraine was US training, adds:
"The more you can develop a very firm foundation of responsibility and
right s of the individual in civil society, the more you can push
through the argument that free elections count."
However, the US administration balances the drive for democracy with
other priorities, notably its need for oil supplies and the fight
against Islamic terrorism. Criticis m of the authoritarian rulers of
oil-rich Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, where western companies are making
big investments, is muted. In the poor states of Uzbekistan,
Tajikistan and, to some extent, Kyrgyzstan, concerns exist that
political unrest could open the way for Islamic fundamentalism. Also,
with Afghanistan lying close to the south, there are fears of
promoting regional instability and violence.
Robert Barry of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington says the US is not putting special emphasis on
democratising central Asia. "We have emphasised the geopolitical side
of this area more than democratisation."
For Moscow that is a crumb of comfort because it, too, worries about
Islamism and instability. But the Kremlin will be angered by Mr Bush's
efforts to promote democracy elsewhere. The US president may have
agreed to stand on the podium in Red Square on Monday but that will
not stop him marching about the former Soviet Union pretty much as he
wishes.