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ANKARA: The GUUAM Code: Will Azerbaijan be Next?

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  • ANKARA: The GUUAM Code: Will Azerbaijan be Next?

    The GUUAM Code: Will Azerbaijan be Next?

    Zeynep Gürcanli


    The New Anatolian,
    18 May 2005

    http://www.thenewanatolian.com/htm/subs/opinions/006-2.htm

    The GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova)
    Group was formally founded in the 1990s as a political, economic
    and strategic alliance designed to strengthen the independence and
    sovereignty of these former Soviet Union republics.

    In looking for a name, the officials of the founding countries probably
    thought only about finding one that would be easy to remember. They
    chose the first letters of the names of their countries.

    But in a coincidence, revolutions or insurgencies in the founding
    countries occurred in the same order as the name of the GUUAM
    organization.

    After Georgia and Ukraine, insurgencies shook Uzbekistan last week.
    Uzbek President Islam Kerimov suppressed the events with very harsh
    methods. But despite this "slap on Kerimov's iron hand" against
    the demonstrators, stability in the country has yet to be fully
    established.

    The fourth letter of GUUAM is the "A," which stands for
    Azerbaijan. Interestingly, the earliest scheduled elections of the
    group will also take place in Azerbaijan. Parliamentary elections in
    that country will be held in November.

    Remembering that demonstrations that led to the change
    of administration in Georgia and Ukraine began just after their
    respective elections, the eyes of the international community have
    turned to Azerbaijan.

    The most sensitive problem in Azerbaijan that could ruin its stability
    is apparently the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. So attempts to find a
    solution to the problem have been stepped up.

    Due to the sensitive domestic situation in Azerbaijan on the eve
    of the elections, the international pressure seems mostly targeting
    Armenia to make some concessions on the way to a solution.

    And the first signals from the Armenian side began to come. During a
    short visit to Ankara last week, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Araz
    Azimov conveyed critical information to Turkish authorities about
    these signals coming from Yerevan.

    Under the proposed formula to solve the problem, Armenian would
    withdraw from seven regions of Nagorno-Karabakh. Under the formula,
    Armenia has agreed to withdraw from five regions immediately but wants
    to negotiate further on the withdrawal from the Kelbece region which
    surrounds Karabakh, and the Lachin region, located between Azerbaijan
    and Nakhchivan.

    If fully agreed to by Yerevan, a declaration about implementation
    of this formula would strengthen the hands of Azeri President Ilham
    Aliyev on the eve of the elections.

    In Armenia there will be no scheduled elections until the beginning
    of 2008. From this perspective, the key of Aliyev's fate seems to be
    in the hands of his main enemy, Armenian President Robert Kocharian.

    Certainly, if Kocharian could show enough courage to take steps, it
    would be Aliyev's turn to ease Kocharian's domestic problems before
    the elections in Armenia scheduled for the beginning of 2008.

    Both Aliyev and the Minsk Group, which was formed under the leadership
    of France, Russia and the U.S. within the Organization for Security
    and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) framework, are trying to break up this
    "GUUAM code" by pressing upon Armenia.

    And the signals coming from Armenia show that Yerevan officials have
    begun to understand that any instability in Azerbaijan would directly
    affect their country.

    There is a saying in Turkish; "The enemy you know is always better
    than the one you don't ..."

    --Boundary_(ID_IPLR64Wl86BvsaZVYd4cfw)--
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