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  • Bush Foresees Changes in Caucasus, Central Asia

    Bush Foresees Changes in Caucasus, Central Asia
    By Anatoly Medetsky, Staff Writer

    The Moscow Times, Russia
    May 20 2005

    U.S. President George W. Bush predicted more democratic changes
    across the Caucasus and Central Asia -- areas that were once part of
    the Soviet Union -- and pledged Washington would help new democratic
    governments.

    Speaking at a Washington dinner on Wednesday evening given by the
    International Republican Institute, Bush recalled the arrival of
    democratic governments in the former Soviet republics of Georgia,
    Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan as well as in Iraq and Lebanon in the last 18
    months and said more countries would follow.

    "These are just the beginnings," Bush said, according to a transcript
    of his speech published on the White House's web site. "Across the
    Caucasus and Central Asia, hope is stirring at the prospect of change
    -- and change will come."

    The comments appeared aimed at the former Soviet republics of Armenia
    and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan,
    Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia.

    Bush also announced a plan to create an Active Response Corps within
    the State Department by 2006 that would be on call to quickly deploy
    staff to crisis situations in countries that overthrow "tyranny"
    and elect pro-Western governments.

    The U.S. federal budget for 2006 will request $24 million for this
    office and $100 million for a new Conflict Response Fund, Bush said.


    The IRI, a pro-Republican Party nonprofit organization dedicated
    to advancing democracy worldwide, was helping Poland, Lithuania and
    Latvia in an effort "to bring freedom" to Belarus, he said.

    Russia is jittery about conceding ground to the United States in the
    CIS, its traditional sphere of influence. Federal Security Service
    director Nikolai Patrushev said last week that the revolutions in
    Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan showed that "certain forces in the
    West were trying to weaken Russia's influence" on its neighbors.

    He also claimed that IRI had earmarked $5 million to finance
    opposition groups in Belarus this year, but an IRI spokeswoman said
    the organization spent about $500,000 annually on programs in Belarus
    and that none of it went to political parties.

    No official reaction to Bush's comments came from Moscow on Thursday.
    The chairman of the State Duma's International Relations Committee,
    Konstantin Kosachyov, could not be immediately reached for comment,
    and the Foreign Ministry had no comment, a spokesman said.

    Independent political analyst Andrei Piontkovsky said Bush's
    predictions and promises of help to possible new democracies in the
    former Soviet Union would not hurt relations between Russia and the
    United States.

    "We haven't been making any efforts to stabilize the situation in these
    areas," he said, referring to last week's uprising in Uzbekistan, which
    left hundreds dead, as an example of the region's instability. "That's
    why [the United States] began to deal with this."

    Timofei Bordachyov, deputy editor of the Russia in Global Affairs
    journal, said the Active Response Corps would most likely help new
    pro-Western governments handle refugee crises, rein in public disorder
    and build Western-style institutions.

    The promise of such help would not, in and of itself, necessarily
    spark new revolutions because what really causes them is corruption
    and poverty, he said.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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