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Azerbaijan's political temperature rises as Parl. election Looms

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  • Azerbaijan's political temperature rises as Parl. election Looms

    EurasiaNet Organization
    May 23 2005


    AZERBAIJAN'S POLITICAL TEMPERATURE RISES AS PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION
    CAMPAIGN LOOMS
    Khadija Ismailova and Shahin Abbasov 5/23/05

    Two principles seem to guide Bush administration foreign policy - an
    intent to open up international energy markets and a desire to
    promote democratic values around the globe. These two notions appear
    to be on a collision course in Azerbaijan, an oil-rich state in the
    Caucasus where the risk of risk of political violence is growing.

    The last half of this year promises to be eventful in Baku. The main
    pillar of the country's long-range economic development effort - the
    Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline - is expected to become operational in
    late 2005, around the same time parliamentary elections are held in
    November. Already, there are indications that the election could
    prove tumultuous. Political uncertainty, in turn, could cloud the
    pipeline's prospects for a smooth launch.

    Opposition parties have become increasingly active in 2005, clearly
    emboldened by the revolutionary trend in the former Soviet Union that
    has produced regime change in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan over
    the past 18 months. On May 21, an opposition coalition sponsored a
    demonstration, calling for guarantees of a free-and-fair legislative
    vote. The Azerbaijani government refused to sanction the rally, and
    police used force to break it up. Dozens were injured in the
    confrontation, including several journalists covering the event who
    were wearing special vests designed to identify them as members of
    the press and thus protect them from harassment. Arrest estimates
    ranged from 45 to 149.

    Before being set upon by club wielding riot police, some opposition
    demonstrators could be seen holding portraits of US President George
    W. Bush. During a May 10 speech in capital of neighboring Georgia,
    Bush indicated that the United States would back democratic change in
    all former Soviet states. "Across the Caucasus, in Central Asia and
    the broader Middle East, we see the same desire for liberty burning
    in the hearts of young people. They are demanding their freedom --
    and they will have it," Bush told the crowd assembled on Tbilisi's
    Freedom Square. "We are living in historic times when freedom is
    advancing, from the Black Sea to the Caspian." In organizing the Baku
    rally for fair elections, opposition leaders seemed to be acting on
    Bush's Tbilisi's comments.

    One of the explanations given by local authorities in refusing to
    grant the opposition permission to assemble was a desire to maintain
    stability in the capital in advance of the opening ceremony for the
    BTC pipeline, scheduled for May 25. The event is expected to draw
    dignitaries, including US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, from
    around the world. The extent of force used by police, however, puts
    foreign diplomats and corporate representative in a difficult spot
    for the BTC ceremony. Some may end up staying away from the event out
    of concern that an appearance would be seen as an endorsement for the
    suppression of right to freedom of assembly.

    The incident puts the Bush administration in an especially awkward
    position. As a key backer of the BTC project, Washington has
    developed a close strategic relationship with Azerbaijani President
    Ilham Aliyev's administration. US officials have energetically
    promoted stabilization initiatives in recent months, including a
    diplomatic push to break the stalemate in the talks between
    Azerbaijan and Armenia on a Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. [For
    background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A stable political
    environment is needed to help BTC realize its economic potential,
    many observers say.

    The aggressive tactics adopted by Azerbaijan's opposition seem sure
    to raise the country's political temperature, running counter to the
    US desire for regional tranquility surrounding the BTC launch. Yet,
    given the Bush White House's messianic advocacy of democratic values,
    US officials cannot appear to discourage the Azerbaijani opposition's
    quest for a free-and-fair vote. A US Embassy statement, issued after
    the rally was suppressed, expressed regret over the police use of
    force in Baku, adding that American officials will closely monitor
    events. "We urge the Azerbaijani government to respect the democratic
    freedoms of the people," the statement said.

    In comments made prior to the May 21 rally, Ali Hasanov, an advisor
    to Aliyev, insisted that the Azerbaijani government is committed to
    democratization. "We think this [democratization] is normal," Hasanov
    said in comments broadcast May 21 by Space TV. "Azerbaijan has chosen
    the way of evolution. Some states have chosen the way of revolution,
    and that is their own business."

    Opposition leaders characterized the May 21 rally as a success, and
    gave every indication that the use of confrontational tactics would
    continue. "Although hundreds of people were arrested and injured,
    these people brought the victory of democracy even closer," said Isa
    Gambar, leader of the opposition Musavat Party was quoted as saying
    in the May 22 edition of the Yeni Musavat newspaper.

    Another opposition leader, the Popular Front reformist wing's Ali
    Karimli, said the demonstration was "more effective than we had
    planned." He added that the rally offered confirmation that
    "Azerbaijani authorities are ready to rig the elections and that they
    have no respect for human rights," Yeni Musavat reported.

    The Azerbaijani government's image has taken a beating since the
    October 2003 presidential election, and the ensuing crackdown on the
    Aliyev administration's political opponents. [For background see the
    Eurasia Insight archive]. International monitors found numerous flaws
    in the conduct and the results of the 2003 vote, in which Aliyev
    secured his own political mandate, succeeding his father, Heidar, who
    died in December of the same year. [For background see the Eurasia
    Insight archive].

    On May 11, the younger Aliyev took action designed to improve the
    country's electoral image, issuing a decree to make the
    ballot-counting process more transparent. A week later, government
    officials and opposition representatives agreed to a code of conduct
    governing the upcoming campaign. In the so-called "Consensus of
    Behavior" document, both sides pledged to observe democratic norms.

    Prior to May 21 incident, officials sought to persuade opposition
    leaders to postpone the demonstration until mid June. Opposition
    leaders dismissed the proposal, saying that such a postponement would
    greatly reduce their ability to influence the debate on possible
    amendments to the country's election code. Parliament is expected to
    take up the issue in early June.

    In the aftermath of the May 21 incident, both sides' commitment to
    the code of conduct seems in doubt. Officials and opposition leaders
    have traded accusations that the other side was the first to violate
    the agreement. "The ink on the "Consensus of Behavior" agreement ...
    was hardly dry when the police wielded their truncheons [to break up]
    a peaceful manifestation," complained Fuad Mustafayev, the Popular
    Front's deputy chairman. Mustafayev maintained that the opposition
    was determined to promote changes to the electoral code.

    A spokesman for the governing Yeni Azerbaijan party, Husein Pashayev,
    seemed equally determined not to give in to opposition pressure. "The
    government of Azerbaijan is not that weak so that it should [alter]
    its position just because of rally of some radical groups," Pashayev
    said.

    "After the acts of violence performed by opposition in October of
    2003 we had no confidence that they (opposition activists) will not
    destroy public order in the city," Pashayev said. "The fact that
    opposition parties did not agree ... to postpone their rally until
    late June shows that they are keen to create troubles."

    Pashayev hinted ominously that international organizations played a
    role in organizing the opposition rally. However, he declined to
    identify any foreign entity under suspicion of assisting anti-Aliyev
    forces. Meanwhile, Mustafayev dismissed the notion that opposition
    parties received assistance from foreign "donors." At the same time,
    he indicated that opposition leaders had contacts and shared
    information with foreign organizations, noting that all such
    interaction was driven by a common interest in "freedom of speech,
    freedom of assembly and fair elections, which are the basis of any
    democracy."

    In addition to the US Embassy statement on the May 21 clash, the
    European Union and the OSCE office in Baku also criticized the
    behavior of Baku police. Andreas Herkel, the co-raporteur of the
    Monitoring Committee of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of
    Europe, said the "practice of banning mass actions must be
    abolished."

    The US and EU commitment to democratic reforms is sure to be put to
    the test in Azerbaijan in the coming months. The Azerbaijani
    opposition appears determined to push the government on the election
    issue. Aliyev administration officials seem to view the opposition
    activists more as rabble rousers than democracy advocates. Thus, the
    stage is set for fresh, and potentially more violent confrontation as
    the election campaign progresses.

    Some political analysts in Baku believe the government is committed
    to retaining power at any cost, describing as "just words" the Aliyev
    administration's rhetoric on the need for free elections. "The
    government possesses the tools to ban demonstrations, and change
    election statistics," said Rasim Musabekov, a skeptical political
    analyst.

    There is a good chance that the Azerbaijani government's behavior in
    the coming months could force the Bush administration, along with
    European governments, to choose between the desire for stability and
    a smooth launch for BTC, and the desire to promote democratic
    reforms.


    Editor's Note: Shahin Abbasov and Khadija Ismailova are freelance
    journalists based in Baku.
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