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  • Azerbaijan becomes an obstacle

    Agency WPS
    What the Papers Say. Part B (Russia)
    May 24, 2005, Tuesday



    AZERBAIJAN BECOMES AN OBSTACLE

    SOURCE: Kommersant, May 24, 2005, p. 10

    by Vladimir Novikov, Gennadi Sysoev


    Another round of Russian-Georgian negotiations on withdrawing Russian
    military bases from Georgia has opened in Tbilisi. Deputy Foreign
    Minister Merab Antadze heads the Georgian delegation; special envoy
    Igor Savolsky heads the Russian delegation.

    The talks are shrouded in secrecy. Foreign Minister Salome
    Zurabishvili even warned that comments would only be made after the
    meeting. According to our sources, the chances of success are fairly
    high. Moscow and Tbilisi have certainly bridged the gap in dealing
    with the problem which had defeated them for years.

    Georgia wants the Batumi base withdrawn by March 2008, and the
    Akhalkalaki base (plus all heavy military hardware) withdrawn by July
    1, 2007. Russia is prepared leave Batumi by the end of 2008 and leave
    Akhalkalaki by late 2007. In other words, the difference is not
    substantial - a fact acknowledged yesterday even by Nino
    Burdzhanadze, speaker of the Georgian parliament. "We may find the
    Russian proposals on dates and terms acceptable," she said. "It
    doesn't really matter if the bases are out before January 1, 2008, or
    in May 2008."

    The status of the peacekeeping base in Gudauta (Abkhazia) remains
    undecided as yet. Also undecided are questions of procedures for
    withdrawing facilities, military hardware, and personnel from
    Tbilisi, Akhalkalaki, and Batumi; the status and functions of the
    joint counter-terrorism center to be established simultaneously with
    the withdrawal; and the legal form to be taken by Georgia's
    commitment not to host military contingents from any other countries
    after the Russian withdrawal.

    Actually, another stumbling block could be the position of
    Azerbaijan, which only came to light recently as an issue that could
    impact the future Russian-Georgian agreement. Chief of the General
    Staff Yuri Baluyevsky confirmed Baku's worst fears last week. He said
    that some of the military hardware from the withdrawn bases in
    Georgia would be transferred to a military base in Gyumri, Armenia.
    "This would cut the withdrawal time to four years. That's a measure
    we are forced to take, since new infrastructure cannot be set up in
    the time available," Baluyevsky explained.

    This is precisely what has unnerved the government of Azerbaijan -
    especially since Moscow, when reaching agreement with Armenian
    President Robert Kocharjan about the movement of troops, conveniently
    "forgot" to mention the matter to President Ilham Aliyev of
    Azerbaijan.

    The Foreign Ministry of Azerbaijan sent a note to the Russian Embassy
    in Baku yesterday, expressing "concern over statements made by some
    Russian political and military leaders about the possibility of
    transfering some property and military hardware from Russian military
    bases in Georgia into Armenia." The government of Azerbaijan
    maintains that "this scenario would be inconsistent with regional
    peace and security interests. It would only exacerbate tension in the
    already-problematic process of resolving the Azerbaijan-Armenia
    conflict."

    Trying to allay Baku's fears at least partially, Savolsky said
    yesterday that most military hardware in question would be returned
    to Russia. Still, it doesn't seem that Azerbaijan (and the West)
    would tolerate any reinforcement of the Russian army group in
    Armenia. The government of Azerbaijan is essentially linking the
    future of Azerbaijan-Russia relations with the matter of Russia's
    withdrawal from Gudauta. This greatly restricts Moscow's room for
    maneuver.

    Translated by A. Ignatkin
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