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RIA Novosti, Russia
May 25 2005
AZERBAIJAN: OIL PIPELINE, AMERICANS, WAHHABITES
14:34
MOSCOW (Alexei Makarkin, deputy director general of the Center for
Political Technologies, for RIA Novosti) Recently, the expansion of
ties between Washington and Baku has become obvious.
The opening on May 25 of the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan,
by-passing Russia, is one of the best examples of the recent trend.
According to many experts, this project bears clearly geopolitical
rather than economic significance. It fits perfectly in the framework
of other projects related to the US military presence in that
strategically important region.
>From time to time, information leaks into the media about the US
plans to deploy its military contingents in Azerbaijan. The sources
hint at the possibility of "temporarily deploying mobile forces,"
which might stay in the region for a rather prolonged period. These
forces are supposed to provide security for the pipeline and exert
pressure on Iran and Russia.
Officials in Baku denied these rumors, although it does not mean
Azerbaijan would not contemplate the possibility of talks on the
issue. The Azeri Defense Ministry took a different position on
another issue, though. It did not confirm or deny information about
the possible creation of a military bloc consisting of Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Turkey, a sort of NATO "subsidiary." Some sources assume
Ukraine might become a member of the new alliance later.
The new prospect certainly looks good for NATO. The reason is the
three post-Soviet states do not meet the criteria for joining NATO -
insufficient level of democracy, existing territorial problems (both
in Georgia and Azerbaijan), the presence of military forces of the
states that do not make part of NATO (Russian bases in Georgia, the
Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol). A "mini-alliance," though,
would not have such strict requirements, and its members might be
always encouraged by the promises to become NATO members in the mid-
or long-term perspective. At the same time, such a solution will
increase Turkey's role in NATO as a compensation for the delay in its
integration with the European Union. In the future US military bases
might be deployed in Georgia, as well. It is worth mentioning that
the pipeline passing through the territory of the three states will
become a foundation of the future military bloc.
Such a development will certainly hurt Russia's interests. That is
why Russia attempts to delay the withdrawal of its military bases
from Georgia for as long as possible and receive guarantees that the
US bases will not replace them in the future. Political risks for
Armenia and Iran will increase as well. Armenia still remembers the
Turkish genocide during World War I, and Iran remains a potential
target of the US invasion.
However, the US expansion in the region might face an unexpected
obstacle. It is well known that there is a fierce clash between the
ruling regime and the secular opposition defending democratic
freedoms in Azerbaijan. Recently, the police in Baku harshly
dispersed an opposition meeting. Dozens of people were beaten
unmercifully.
The Americans cooperate both with the official regime and the
opposition in Azerbaijan, trying to avoid laying eggs in one basket.
However, there is a "third force" in the country that gradually gains
popularity. It unites representatives of radical Islam, popularly
called wahhabites on post-Soviet territory.
The leader of Azeri Communists Ramiz Akhmedov directly accused the
country's traditional Islamic leaders of supporting the growth of
wahhabites' popularity. The problem is that these leaders start
losing their authority among the believers and that, according to
Akhmedov, forces people to search for "pure" Islam. Normally, their
search leads them to the radical camp.
It is a known fact that radical Islamists despise the US and the West
in general not less than they despise authoritarian Muslim regimes.
Therefore, the growing popularity of wahhabites in Azerbaijan might
create serious problems both for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and
the plans of future military cooperation between Baku and the West.
May 25 2005
AZERBAIJAN: OIL PIPELINE, AMERICANS, WAHHABITES
14:34
MOSCOW (Alexei Makarkin, deputy director general of the Center for
Political Technologies, for RIA Novosti) Recently, the expansion of
ties between Washington and Baku has become obvious.
The opening on May 25 of the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan,
by-passing Russia, is one of the best examples of the recent trend.
According to many experts, this project bears clearly geopolitical
rather than economic significance. It fits perfectly in the framework
of other projects related to the US military presence in that
strategically important region.
>From time to time, information leaks into the media about the US
plans to deploy its military contingents in Azerbaijan. The sources
hint at the possibility of "temporarily deploying mobile forces,"
which might stay in the region for a rather prolonged period. These
forces are supposed to provide security for the pipeline and exert
pressure on Iran and Russia.
Officials in Baku denied these rumors, although it does not mean
Azerbaijan would not contemplate the possibility of talks on the
issue. The Azeri Defense Ministry took a different position on
another issue, though. It did not confirm or deny information about
the possible creation of a military bloc consisting of Azerbaijan,
Georgia and Turkey, a sort of NATO "subsidiary." Some sources assume
Ukraine might become a member of the new alliance later.
The new prospect certainly looks good for NATO. The reason is the
three post-Soviet states do not meet the criteria for joining NATO -
insufficient level of democracy, existing territorial problems (both
in Georgia and Azerbaijan), the presence of military forces of the
states that do not make part of NATO (Russian bases in Georgia, the
Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol). A "mini-alliance," though,
would not have such strict requirements, and its members might be
always encouraged by the promises to become NATO members in the mid-
or long-term perspective. At the same time, such a solution will
increase Turkey's role in NATO as a compensation for the delay in its
integration with the European Union. In the future US military bases
might be deployed in Georgia, as well. It is worth mentioning that
the pipeline passing through the territory of the three states will
become a foundation of the future military bloc.
Such a development will certainly hurt Russia's interests. That is
why Russia attempts to delay the withdrawal of its military bases
from Georgia for as long as possible and receive guarantees that the
US bases will not replace them in the future. Political risks for
Armenia and Iran will increase as well. Armenia still remembers the
Turkish genocide during World War I, and Iran remains a potential
target of the US invasion.
However, the US expansion in the region might face an unexpected
obstacle. It is well known that there is a fierce clash between the
ruling regime and the secular opposition defending democratic
freedoms in Azerbaijan. Recently, the police in Baku harshly
dispersed an opposition meeting. Dozens of people were beaten
unmercifully.
The Americans cooperate both with the official regime and the
opposition in Azerbaijan, trying to avoid laying eggs in one basket.
However, there is a "third force" in the country that gradually gains
popularity. It unites representatives of radical Islam, popularly
called wahhabites on post-Soviet territory.
The leader of Azeri Communists Ramiz Akhmedov directly accused the
country's traditional Islamic leaders of supporting the growth of
wahhabites' popularity. The problem is that these leaders start
losing their authority among the believers and that, according to
Akhmedov, forces people to search for "pure" Islam. Normally, their
search leads them to the radical camp.
It is a known fact that radical Islamists despise the US and the West
in general not less than they despise authoritarian Muslim regimes.
Therefore, the growing popularity of wahhabites in Azerbaijan might
create serious problems both for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and
the plans of future military cooperation between Baku and the West.