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Zaman, Turkey
May 28 2005
If France Says 'No', Burden on Turkey Gets Heavier
By Selcuk Gultasli
Published: Saturday 28, 2005
zaman.com
"The Day After" was a film that echoed in the 80's in a big way when
the tension of the Cold War years was at its peak. The film was about
a tension between the US and the USSR and the a nuclear war caused by
this tension. After the war, our planet Earth was becoming somewhere
that was not unsuitable for survival.
It is commented that if France says "no" to the European Constitution
tomorrow, Europe will also experience a "Day After". It means that
there will be chaos in the European Union (EU); each country will be
thinking about its own interests; it will be an exact "Day After"
syndrome. A quite common claim is that the first victim of this chaos
will be Turkey. The European press wrote yesterday that the French
political elite has already prepared for "no" and "The Day After".;
Tthere are also people who claim that "The Day After" theory is
exaggerated and the EU will continue its way in accordance with the
Nice Treaty even if it is not perfect.
The claims are that the EU, which dragged its feet hard
forreluctantly gave Turkey' candidacy status, did everything in order
not to start to the negotiations and made Turkey accept the
conditions that were not set forrequired of any of the other
candidates when it gave a date of negotiations to Turkey, will use
the "no" of France as an excuse and will delay Turkey's membership
negotiations which were proposedare scheduled to start on October 3.
It is also said that even if the negotiations start, the pointer
mayTurkey's status may slip to privileged partnership from full
membership. The authorities indicate that if the negotiations are
delayed, even if Ankara does whatever it is supposed to do, the EU
will suffer a serious losse of prestige seriously.
The referendum campaign in France was quite disadvantageous for
Turkey. When Jacques Chirac announced that the referendum would be
held on May 29, French Politician Philippe De Villers announced
without losing any time that this date was the date at on which Turks
conquered Constantinople. President Chirac tried to show Armenian
Genocide decision of the parliament that was accepted in 2001, as the
decision of the parliament, not the state itself, and he not only
participated in the crown ceremony of the Genocide Statue in the
frame ofduring the referendum campaign but also he used the term
"Genocide" for the first time in a letter that he wrote to Armenians.
French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier can easily explain that the
genocide is a condition before Turkey. The worst of all is that
Turkey discussion was discussed was done in an irresponsible and
humiliating way through the referendum campaign.
Turkey was "demonized" so much during the campaign that some French
started to see themselves as Sebiosky II to defeating Turks in front
of Brussels. The gossips say that Barnier says to his close
environmentsthose close to him that if the result of the referendum
is "no", then Turkey should forget about the membership.
Experts in Brussels are of the same opinion that if the French say
"no" in tomorrow's referendum, this will be registered as a
"disadvantage" for Turkey's EU bid. On the contraryother hand, some
say this will not affect Turkey's accession process. Europe Politic
Center (EPC) Director of Studies Fraser Cameron considers belives a
French "no" will make Turkey's bid harder and continues that not just
a French "no", but also ifs German Christian Democrats win the early
elections in Germany just before October 3, this will make it more
difficult to reach a consensus over Turkey and that might cause
postponement ofin negotiations with Turkey. But of course this is a
very political decision and it is hard to know today for nowif this
or that will happen, says Cameron. To the question with what kind of
a reasoning, the EU will delay negotiations if the two conditions
laid down before Turkey on 17 December 2004 at the EU summit that
envisage signing Cyprus supplementary protocol and six legal
regulations are carried out, Cameron responded that it is impossible
to foresee this now; however, if the members reach a decision like
"we cannot do anything for two years since the Constitution was
rejected" negotiations with Turkey willdo not start.
Another think-tank organization in Brussels, the Daniel Gros from
Center for Europe Political Studies (CEPS) claimsdefends as long as
Turkey fulfills its responsibilities, the EU cannot postpone
negotiations. "If the French say 'no', ignore it," adds Gros. He
believes Turkish statesmen should distinguish between the noise
coming from the EU and the voice. According to him, "If the French
say "no" it will be a big noise, but you listen to the voice coming
from the EU, not the noise. That voice anyways has decided to start
negotiations anyway." If Turkey does not give the upper hand to its
opponents by taking wrong steps, the French "no" will not affect
negotiations, Gros insists on.
Michael Emerson from CEPS reminds black clouds will be patrollinghang
over October 3 if French say "no"; however, sometimes these clouds
bring rain and cause thunderstorms and they sometimes go away
smoothlyquietly. According to Emerson, a possible "no" will weaken
the ground of the negotiation process and will emerge as a serious
problem. He emphasizes that the French "no" cannot be a reason for
postponing negotiations with Turkey. "If Turkey fulfills the two
conditions set on December 17, a descent reason to postpone the
negotiations cannot be found. Negotiations willbegin, but if [Angela
Merkel] comes to power, it cannot be said in what direction
negotiations will head."
The opposition front gets stronger
EPC Turkey Specialist of Amanda Akcakoca thinks that The French's
saying "no" after the March 6 events and the Armenian Genocide
problem will make Turkey opponents even stronger. "In Brussels, the
opinion is that Turkey did made no meaningful reforms in the period
after December 17. If French people say "no" in a period when the
negotiations with Croatia were delayed this will increase therate of
calls for the same process for Turkey" and emphasized that even if
Turkey realizes the two conditions, if it does not continue to the
reforms there may be a decision for postponement. She defends that
the steps that Turkey will takle in upcoming months will even be more
important.
Ali Yurttagul, Adviser of the European Pparliament (EP) Greens Group
thinks that if France says "no", racist and rightist parties will
make Turkey a scapegoat. Yurttagul, who thinks that the negotiations
will start on October 3, thinks that if the constitution is accepted,
Turkey's job will be much easier. Yurttagul said: "Acceptance of the
constitution agreement will solve the representation problem of
Turkey in the EP and EU Council if it is accepted to the EU. This
problem was not discussed in Nice as Turkey did not work well enough.
But the constitution solves this problem. But is it isthe refused the
arguments about the power of Turkey when it is accepted to the union
will continue to increase."
May 28 2005
If France Says 'No', Burden on Turkey Gets Heavier
By Selcuk Gultasli
Published: Saturday 28, 2005
zaman.com
"The Day After" was a film that echoed in the 80's in a big way when
the tension of the Cold War years was at its peak. The film was about
a tension between the US and the USSR and the a nuclear war caused by
this tension. After the war, our planet Earth was becoming somewhere
that was not unsuitable for survival.
It is commented that if France says "no" to the European Constitution
tomorrow, Europe will also experience a "Day After". It means that
there will be chaos in the European Union (EU); each country will be
thinking about its own interests; it will be an exact "Day After"
syndrome. A quite common claim is that the first victim of this chaos
will be Turkey. The European press wrote yesterday that the French
political elite has already prepared for "no" and "The Day After".;
Tthere are also people who claim that "The Day After" theory is
exaggerated and the EU will continue its way in accordance with the
Nice Treaty even if it is not perfect.
The claims are that the EU, which dragged its feet hard
forreluctantly gave Turkey' candidacy status, did everything in order
not to start to the negotiations and made Turkey accept the
conditions that were not set forrequired of any of the other
candidates when it gave a date of negotiations to Turkey, will use
the "no" of France as an excuse and will delay Turkey's membership
negotiations which were proposedare scheduled to start on October 3.
It is also said that even if the negotiations start, the pointer
mayTurkey's status may slip to privileged partnership from full
membership. The authorities indicate that if the negotiations are
delayed, even if Ankara does whatever it is supposed to do, the EU
will suffer a serious losse of prestige seriously.
The referendum campaign in France was quite disadvantageous for
Turkey. When Jacques Chirac announced that the referendum would be
held on May 29, French Politician Philippe De Villers announced
without losing any time that this date was the date at on which Turks
conquered Constantinople. President Chirac tried to show Armenian
Genocide decision of the parliament that was accepted in 2001, as the
decision of the parliament, not the state itself, and he not only
participated in the crown ceremony of the Genocide Statue in the
frame ofduring the referendum campaign but also he used the term
"Genocide" for the first time in a letter that he wrote to Armenians.
French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier can easily explain that the
genocide is a condition before Turkey. The worst of all is that
Turkey discussion was discussed was done in an irresponsible and
humiliating way through the referendum campaign.
Turkey was "demonized" so much during the campaign that some French
started to see themselves as Sebiosky II to defeating Turks in front
of Brussels. The gossips say that Barnier says to his close
environmentsthose close to him that if the result of the referendum
is "no", then Turkey should forget about the membership.
Experts in Brussels are of the same opinion that if the French say
"no" in tomorrow's referendum, this will be registered as a
"disadvantage" for Turkey's EU bid. On the contraryother hand, some
say this will not affect Turkey's accession process. Europe Politic
Center (EPC) Director of Studies Fraser Cameron considers belives a
French "no" will make Turkey's bid harder and continues that not just
a French "no", but also ifs German Christian Democrats win the early
elections in Germany just before October 3, this will make it more
difficult to reach a consensus over Turkey and that might cause
postponement ofin negotiations with Turkey. But of course this is a
very political decision and it is hard to know today for nowif this
or that will happen, says Cameron. To the question with what kind of
a reasoning, the EU will delay negotiations if the two conditions
laid down before Turkey on 17 December 2004 at the EU summit that
envisage signing Cyprus supplementary protocol and six legal
regulations are carried out, Cameron responded that it is impossible
to foresee this now; however, if the members reach a decision like
"we cannot do anything for two years since the Constitution was
rejected" negotiations with Turkey willdo not start.
Another think-tank organization in Brussels, the Daniel Gros from
Center for Europe Political Studies (CEPS) claimsdefends as long as
Turkey fulfills its responsibilities, the EU cannot postpone
negotiations. "If the French say 'no', ignore it," adds Gros. He
believes Turkish statesmen should distinguish between the noise
coming from the EU and the voice. According to him, "If the French
say "no" it will be a big noise, but you listen to the voice coming
from the EU, not the noise. That voice anyways has decided to start
negotiations anyway." If Turkey does not give the upper hand to its
opponents by taking wrong steps, the French "no" will not affect
negotiations, Gros insists on.
Michael Emerson from CEPS reminds black clouds will be patrollinghang
over October 3 if French say "no"; however, sometimes these clouds
bring rain and cause thunderstorms and they sometimes go away
smoothlyquietly. According to Emerson, a possible "no" will weaken
the ground of the negotiation process and will emerge as a serious
problem. He emphasizes that the French "no" cannot be a reason for
postponing negotiations with Turkey. "If Turkey fulfills the two
conditions set on December 17, a descent reason to postpone the
negotiations cannot be found. Negotiations willbegin, but if [Angela
Merkel] comes to power, it cannot be said in what direction
negotiations will head."
The opposition front gets stronger
EPC Turkey Specialist of Amanda Akcakoca thinks that The French's
saying "no" after the March 6 events and the Armenian Genocide
problem will make Turkey opponents even stronger. "In Brussels, the
opinion is that Turkey did made no meaningful reforms in the period
after December 17. If French people say "no" in a period when the
negotiations with Croatia were delayed this will increase therate of
calls for the same process for Turkey" and emphasized that even if
Turkey realizes the two conditions, if it does not continue to the
reforms there may be a decision for postponement. She defends that
the steps that Turkey will takle in upcoming months will even be more
important.
Ali Yurttagul, Adviser of the European Pparliament (EP) Greens Group
thinks that if France says "no", racist and rightist parties will
make Turkey a scapegoat. Yurttagul, who thinks that the negotiations
will start on October 3, thinks that if the constitution is accepted,
Turkey's job will be much easier. Yurttagul said: "Acceptance of the
constitution agreement will solve the representation problem of
Turkey in the EP and EU Council if it is accepted to the EU. This
problem was not discussed in Nice as Turkey did not work well enough.
But the constitution solves this problem. But is it isthe refused the
arguments about the power of Turkey when it is accepted to the union
will continue to increase."