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Azerbaijan: From Showmanship To Brinkmanship

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  • Azerbaijan: From Showmanship To Brinkmanship

    Azerbaijan: From Showmanship To Brinkmanship
    By Liz Fuller

    RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, Czech Rep.
    Sept 2 2005

    In the run-up to the parliamentary elections scheduled for 6 November,
    Azerbaijani leaders face an unenviable dilemma.

    On the one hand, they are under pressure from the Council of Europe,
    the OSCE, and the United States to avoid the egregious violations
    and outright falsification that marred the elections of 1995, 1998,
    2000, and 2003 and to deliver on their repeated pledges that this
    time around the vote will be transparent, free, and fair. And, on the
    other hand, they need to secure a comfortable parliamentary majority
    for the ruling Yeni Azerbaycan Party without sparking postelections
    protests on the lines of those that over the past two years have
    toppled entrenched regimes in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. The
    tactics and strategy selected to achieve that objective appear to
    contain elements of both showmanship and brinkmanship.

    Showmanship

    On 11 May, President Ilham Aliyev issued a decree outlining measures to
    improve the conduct of elections. The preamble to that decree admitted
    that contrary to the "political will" of the Azerbaijani authorities,
    previous elections were marred by "illegalities," but it blamed those
    irregularities on the "lack of professionalism" and "post-Soviet
    mentality" of individual local officials and election commission
    members. (No effort has been made over the past two years to identify
    the individuals responsible for those "irregularities" and bring them
    to justice.) The first of 11 measures listed in President Aliyev's
    decree and intended to prevent a recurrence of procedural violations
    entailed programs to raise the professionalism and competence of the
    officials responsible for the organization of the election process
    and the vote count; the second was a warning to those officials
    that they will be held legally responsible for any infringements
    of the Election Law, such as hampering electioneering by opposition
    candidates or intervening in the voting process or vote count. The
    Azerbaijani leadership is thus apparently seeking to offload in advance
    the blame for possible violations on to regional officials, who will
    have to calculate which offense will be perceived as greater: failing
    to ensure at all costs the victory of the ruling party's candidate,
    or risking their superiors' opprobrium should international observers
    register and publicly condemn malpractice in voting stations under
    their jurisdiction.The final list of candidates is to be announced on
    7 September, and manifestations of both brinkmanship and "black PR"
    are likely to multiply in the two months remaining before the election.

    A third provision of President Aliyev's decree, ostensibly intended to
    contribute to the fairness of the election process, is the provision
    for the conduct of exit polls. Paradoxically, however, this provision
    could have the opposite effect if voters in rural areas, fearful of
    the wrath of the local authorities, claim to have voted for the YAP
    candidate when in fact they cast their votes for a member of the
    opposition. A glaring discrepancy between the actual division of
    ballots cast and the exit-poll results could impel local election
    commission members to bring the "official" tally into line with the
    inaccurate exit-poll data.

    Further aspects of the election campaign to date that could be
    construed as manifestations of showmanship include the lifting of
    long-standing restrictions on holding opposition demonstrations in
    Baku; registration of several controversial opposition candidates,
    first and foremost former parliamentary speaker Rasul Guliev; the
    MSK's 12 August appeal to the Armenian population of the breakaway
    unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic to register to elect a candidate
    to represent the enclave in the next Azerbaijani parliament; and
    the belated launch, on 29 August, of a nominally independent public
    television station whose mandate requires it to provide equal access
    to both pro-government and opposition parliamentary candidates. On
    the same day as the MSK announced Guliev's registration, the office of
    Azerbaijan's prosecutor-general declared that it has stripped Guliev
    of his immunity from prosecution. Should he return to Baku from the
    United States, as he has pledged to do, he consequently risks arrest
    on charges of large-scale embezzlement.

    Following the 11 May presidential decree, in late June, under pressure
    from the international community, Azerbaijan's parliament adopted
    43 amendments proposed by President Aliyev to the existing election
    law. Those amendments did not, however, include the most important
    changes called for by the Council of Europe's Venice Commission, nor
    did they increase opposition representation on election commissions at
    all levels, as the opposition had demanded. (The opposition demanded
    equal representation on election commissions, which the authorities
    rejected, accusing the opposition of thus seeking to prevent such
    commissions from adopting any decisions. Presidential-administration
    head Ramiiz Mekhtiev told day.az on 23 July that the opposition's
    objective in demanding equal representation was the desire to be in a
    position to paralyze the functioning of election commissions and thus
    sabotage the entire election process. The Council of Europe called
    for appointing an additional opposition representative to the MSK to
    give a total of seven opposition and nine pro-government members.)

    ..And Brinkmanship .

    The presidential administration appears to regard the combined
    provisions of the presidential decree and the amended election
    law as a panacea against election fraud -- provided lower-level
    bureaucrats abide by its provisions. Proceeding from that conviction,
    the Azerbaijani leadership has apparently switched from showmanship
    to brinkmanship, arguing that additional measures to preclude fraud
    are unnecessary. For example, Ali Hasanov, who heads the political
    department within the presidential administration, told day.az on
    1 September that the authorities do not consider it necessary to
    accede to the proposal, made most recently during a visit to Baku
    late last month by Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
    (PACE) Chairman Rene van der Linden, to mark voters' fingers with
    indelible ink to prevent multiple voting.

    Further, uglier manifestations of brinkmanship include the recourse
    for the first time in an Azerbaijani election to "doubles," meaning
    the nomination in a given constituency of additional candidates
    with the same name as a prominent oppositionist. The first target
    for such confusion is former presidential adviser Edar Namazov,
    one of the leaders of the opposition alliance Yeni Siyaset, who will
    compete against two namesakes in a Baku constituency. The questionable
    allegations of collusion with Armenian special services brought by
    the Prosecutor-General's Office against Ruslan Bashirli, chairman
    of the opposition youth movement Yeni Fikir, fall into the same
    category. Allegations of treason by association were subsequently
    brought against Bashirli's mentor Ali Kerimli, chairman of the
    progressive wing of Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, one of three
    opposition parties aligned in the Azadlyg bloc. Some observers
    have construed the vilification campaign launched against Kerimli
    as an attempt to split Azadlyg by creating the impression that the
    authorities consider Kerimli, rather than fellow Azadlyg leader and
    Musavat party Chairman Isa Gambar (who lost to President Aliyev in the
    October 2003 presidential ballot), as the most popular and influential
    candidate, and by extension as a threat to be neutralized.

    The final list of candidates is to be announced on 7 September;
    manifestations of both brinkmanship and "black PR" are likely to
    multiply in the two months remaining before the election.

    From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
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