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The tip of the anti-Turkish iceberg
The angry row over Cyprus is the least of the obstacles in Turkey's
way as it struggles to fulfil its 40-year ambition to join the
European mainstream, writes Ian Black
The Guardian/UK
Friday September 9, 2005
It is, for the moment, an obscure diplomatic wrangle being played out
largely behind closed doors in the foreign ministries of Europe and in
Brussels meeting rooms. But the signs are that a serious crisis is
looming over the start of Turkey's long-awaited talks on joining the
EU.
Turkey's date with destiny, October 3 - the same day, coincidentally,
that Germany was reunited in 1990 - was set last year when the then
15-member EU was finalising its historic 10-country enlargement.
It has been a very long time coming: Turkey has been a stalwart member
of Nato since 1952 and was first recognised as a potential member of
the European club as long ago as 1963, only a few years after the
creation of the EEC. Britain is a keen advocate of its EU membership,
as is the US. Both see the secular Muslim democracy as a key regional
ally, a beacon for Islamic and Arab countries and proof that a "clash
of civilisations" with the west is not inevitable.
But mounting anti-Turkish feeling in several European countries and
last summer's shock rejections of the new EU constitution in France
and the Netherlands - part of a wider political and economic malaise -
have created grave doubts. Hence this week's alarm call by Jack Straw,
Britain's foreign secretary, who is now in the hot seat of the EU's
rotating presidency, that it is vital to stick to the October 3 start
date even if, as is widely expected, the actual negotiations drag on
for many years.
The immediate problem is the vexed question of Cyprus, one of last
May's new entrants. The hope had been that a long-standing UN drive to
reunite the divided island would bear fruit before it joined. But
since it did not (though more because of the Greek than the Turkish
side) and because Ankara is refusing to recognise the Nicosia
government (which for the EU legally represents the entire country),
the launch of accession talks is in jeopardy.
Recognition is extremely difficult because without a comprehensive
peace settlement it would undermine Turkey's own 30-year military
presence and the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. But by
flaunting its position at this highly delicate moment, Turkey has
given ammunition to its enemies.
Chief amongst these is France, where polls show much of the
anti-Turkish prejudice expressed by the former president and author of
the constitution, Valery Giscard d'Estaing, whose circumlocutions
about "cultural differences" are only slightly less offensive than the
cruder view of another clever Frenchman, Voltaire: the 18th-century
thinker called the Turks "a reminder to Christians to atone for their
sins".
But there is an even bigger obstacle looming in Germany - assuming
Angela Merkel's centre-right CDU wins this month's election: Ms Merkel
wants Turkey - which supplied so many of the gastarbeiter who created
the German economic miracle of the 1960s - to be offered only a
"privileged partnership", not the full membership that has awaited all
other candidates, from Estonia to Bulgaria, at the end of their
negotiations.
Another key opponent is Austria, where it sometimes seems that Ottoman
janissaries are still besieging Vienna as they did back in the 17th
century. Its chancellor, Wolfgang Schussel, also favours a halfway
house and "open-ended" negotiations for the Turks.
The problem is that offering something different only for Turkey would
appear to prove the resentful charge that the EU is a "Christian club"
and risk a dangerous anti-European, and perhaps fundamentalist,
backlash. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, has warned
that he will "walk away for good" if the talks do not go ahead on
schedule.
If they do start on time, it will be a very big deal indeed: no
country that has begun negotiations on joining the EU has failed
eventually to make the grade.
Although actual membership could be 10 or 15 years away, by then there
will be more than 80 million Turks, probably outnumbering Germans. And
with voting power tied to population size, Ankara will be as important
a player as Berlin, Paris and London - a key reason for the mounting
opposition. Another is the fear of large numbers of poor Turkish
migrant workers flooding western European labour markets, though
restrictions could be imposed for a transition period.
Turkey and its supporters are understandably worried, though they have
a strong case when they argue that the magnet of EU membership has
already generated huge advances under Mr Erdogan's conservative,
moderate Islamist government.
The country's old Midnight Express image has faded and torture has
been banned. There are now Kurdish language broadcasts, and the grip
of the powerful military, keepers of the Ataturk flame, has been
weakened. The economy is in good shape after years of crisis and
inflation under the generals. It is an increasingly attractive market
for foreign investment.
Not everything is perfect. Implementation of some new laws has been
patchy, and some worry about minority rights. Until recently there was
greater openness on the ever-neuralgic question of the Armenian
genocide of the first world war. That, however, has faded, and there
is now embarrassment about the case of the internationally renowned
novelist Orhan Pamuk, facing charges of "belittling Turkishness" over
his brave comments about that dark period.
Hectic diplomacy is likely across Europe over the coming days, perhaps
going down to the wire on the eve of October 3. There will be
brinkmanship and haggling over the precise terms of the negotiations,
and attempts to square the circle of Ankara's non-recognition of
Cyprus. Obscure and complex it may all be, but the stakes are very
high. As Abdullah Gul, the Turkish foreign minister, put it: "The last
100 metres of the marathon should be run very carefully."
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
The angry row over Cyprus is the least of the obstacles in Turkey's
way as it struggles to fulfil its 40-year ambition to join the
European mainstream, writes Ian Black
The Guardian/UK
Friday September 9, 2005
It is, for the moment, an obscure diplomatic wrangle being played out
largely behind closed doors in the foreign ministries of Europe and in
Brussels meeting rooms. But the signs are that a serious crisis is
looming over the start of Turkey's long-awaited talks on joining the
EU.
Turkey's date with destiny, October 3 - the same day, coincidentally,
that Germany was reunited in 1990 - was set last year when the then
15-member EU was finalising its historic 10-country enlargement.
It has been a very long time coming: Turkey has been a stalwart member
of Nato since 1952 and was first recognised as a potential member of
the European club as long ago as 1963, only a few years after the
creation of the EEC. Britain is a keen advocate of its EU membership,
as is the US. Both see the secular Muslim democracy as a key regional
ally, a beacon for Islamic and Arab countries and proof that a "clash
of civilisations" with the west is not inevitable.
But mounting anti-Turkish feeling in several European countries and
last summer's shock rejections of the new EU constitution in France
and the Netherlands - part of a wider political and economic malaise -
have created grave doubts. Hence this week's alarm call by Jack Straw,
Britain's foreign secretary, who is now in the hot seat of the EU's
rotating presidency, that it is vital to stick to the October 3 start
date even if, as is widely expected, the actual negotiations drag on
for many years.
The immediate problem is the vexed question of Cyprus, one of last
May's new entrants. The hope had been that a long-standing UN drive to
reunite the divided island would bear fruit before it joined. But
since it did not (though more because of the Greek than the Turkish
side) and because Ankara is refusing to recognise the Nicosia
government (which for the EU legally represents the entire country),
the launch of accession talks is in jeopardy.
Recognition is extremely difficult because without a comprehensive
peace settlement it would undermine Turkey's own 30-year military
presence and the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. But by
flaunting its position at this highly delicate moment, Turkey has
given ammunition to its enemies.
Chief amongst these is France, where polls show much of the
anti-Turkish prejudice expressed by the former president and author of
the constitution, Valery Giscard d'Estaing, whose circumlocutions
about "cultural differences" are only slightly less offensive than the
cruder view of another clever Frenchman, Voltaire: the 18th-century
thinker called the Turks "a reminder to Christians to atone for their
sins".
But there is an even bigger obstacle looming in Germany - assuming
Angela Merkel's centre-right CDU wins this month's election: Ms Merkel
wants Turkey - which supplied so many of the gastarbeiter who created
the German economic miracle of the 1960s - to be offered only a
"privileged partnership", not the full membership that has awaited all
other candidates, from Estonia to Bulgaria, at the end of their
negotiations.
Another key opponent is Austria, where it sometimes seems that Ottoman
janissaries are still besieging Vienna as they did back in the 17th
century. Its chancellor, Wolfgang Schussel, also favours a halfway
house and "open-ended" negotiations for the Turks.
The problem is that offering something different only for Turkey would
appear to prove the resentful charge that the EU is a "Christian club"
and risk a dangerous anti-European, and perhaps fundamentalist,
backlash. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, has warned
that he will "walk away for good" if the talks do not go ahead on
schedule.
If they do start on time, it will be a very big deal indeed: no
country that has begun negotiations on joining the EU has failed
eventually to make the grade.
Although actual membership could be 10 or 15 years away, by then there
will be more than 80 million Turks, probably outnumbering Germans. And
with voting power tied to population size, Ankara will be as important
a player as Berlin, Paris and London - a key reason for the mounting
opposition. Another is the fear of large numbers of poor Turkish
migrant workers flooding western European labour markets, though
restrictions could be imposed for a transition period.
Turkey and its supporters are understandably worried, though they have
a strong case when they argue that the magnet of EU membership has
already generated huge advances under Mr Erdogan's conservative,
moderate Islamist government.
The country's old Midnight Express image has faded and torture has
been banned. There are now Kurdish language broadcasts, and the grip
of the powerful military, keepers of the Ataturk flame, has been
weakened. The economy is in good shape after years of crisis and
inflation under the generals. It is an increasingly attractive market
for foreign investment.
Not everything is perfect. Implementation of some new laws has been
patchy, and some worry about minority rights. Until recently there was
greater openness on the ever-neuralgic question of the Armenian
genocide of the first world war. That, however, has faded, and there
is now embarrassment about the case of the internationally renowned
novelist Orhan Pamuk, facing charges of "belittling Turkishness" over
his brave comments about that dark period.
Hectic diplomacy is likely across Europe over the coming days, perhaps
going down to the wire on the eve of October 3. There will be
brinkmanship and haggling over the precise terms of the negotiations,
and attempts to square the circle of Ankara's non-recognition of
Cyprus. Obscure and complex it may all be, but the stakes are very
high. As Abdullah Gul, the Turkish foreign minister, put it: "The last
100 metres of the marathon should be run very carefully."
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress