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Resumption of war in Karabakh is very probable

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  • Resumption of war in Karabakh is very probable

    AZG Armenian Daily #166, 16/09/2005


    Karabakh issue

    RESUMPTION OF WAR IN KARABAKH IS VERY PROBABLE

    ICG's Report Contains A number of Unpleasant Moments for Armenia

    The lasting Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the
    most significant obstacle to peace and stability in the South Caucasus. On
    September 14, the International Crises Group made public its first report on
    Karabakh regulation titled "Viewing the Conflict from the Ground". "Whatever
    is being done at the internationally mediated negotiations, at ground level
    resumed war appears a real possibility", the report says. The 30 page long
    report presents situation in Nagorno Karabakh, in 7 Armenia-controlled
    territories as well as the living conditions of the Azeri refuges in special
    refugee camps.

    The report contains a number of unpleasant formulations for Armenia and NK.
    "Nagorno Karabakh has inspiration for independence and argues with some
    reason that it has a democratically-elected government that is meeting the
    preconditions of statehood... Nagorno Karabakh has mono-ethnic institutions
    and become one of the world's most militarized societies"

    "Nagorno Karabakh forces, reinforced by many conscripts and contracted from
    Armenia, occupy some 13.4 per cent of Azerbaijan's land (11.722 sq. km.).
    This includes some 92.5 per cent of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous
    Oblast (NKAO), five districts outside Nagorno Karabakh, and significant
    segments of two others. The occupied territory outside the former NKAO
    amounts to 7.409 sq. km., close to double the territory of the former Soviet
    oblast... This includes part of the districts of Martuni and Mardakert (327
    sq. km.), which were in the NKAO, as well as the pre-war Shahumian district
    and Getashen Settlement (701 sq. km.) northeast of the NKAO. Stepanakert
    authorities claim these last two should be part of present day Nagorno
    Karabakh as they also declared secession from Soviet Azerbaijan in 1991. In
    addition they consider Lachin (1.835 sq. km.) to be part of Nagorno Karabakh
    and say 'it cannot be subject to compromise, as it connects Karabakh to the
    outer world', even though it was never part of NKAO, and no Armenians lived
    there before the war".

    "Probably some 413.000 Armenians fled Azerbaijan and regions in Armenia
    bordering it, and 724.000 Azerbaijanis (and Kurds) were displaced from
    Armenia, Nagorno Karabakh and the surrounding districts... Before the war
    the 424.900 inhabitants of those districts were almost exclusively Azeris,
    none of whom remain. Towns like Agdam (28.200), Kelbajar (8.100), Jebrail
    (6.200) and Fizuli (23.000) have been systematically leveled so that only
    foundations remain. Even electrical wiring, pipes, and other infrastructure
    have been sold as scarp. Authorities in Stepanakert have done nothing to
    stop the destruction process".

    "Stepanakert's settlement policy in Lachin and Kelbajar, and to lesser
    extent Agdam, appears to be a violation of international law and is likely
    to complicate the implementation of any political settlement... As the chair
    of the Nagorno Karabakh parliament said, 'once Armenians start burying their
    dead there, it will be difficult to move them again'".

    A chapter of the report title "Life in Nagorno Karabakh" says that though
    internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh is
    independent de facto and its military and economic safety is guaranteed by
    Armenia.

    The report provides detailed account of construction of Karabakh's armed
    forces. "NK may be the world's most militarized society. The highly trained
    and equipped Nagorno Karabakh Defence Army is primarily a ground force, for
    which Armenia provides much of the backbone. A Nagorno Karabakh official
    told Crises Group it has some 20.000 soldiers, while an independent expert
    estimated 18.500. An additional 20.000 to 30.000 reservists allegedly could
    be mobilized... According to an independent assessment, there are 8.500
    Karabakh Armenians in the army and 10.000 from Armenia. If these figures are
    accurate, Nagorno Karabakh's 65 persons per 1.000 inhabitants under arms
    would surpass almost all other countries for proportion of population in the
    military". Based on hundreds of interviews and observations, the ICG arrived
    at a conclusion that the NK armed forces played a significant role in
    politics. The situation has changed after the then commander-in-chief of the
    army was imprisoned.

    The report underscores that Armenia fills up half of Karabakh's budget. "The
    US is the only other state that provides direct governmental assistance [to
    Karabakh]".

    A whole chapter deals with Azeri IDPs (internally displaced persons). It
    says that they keep on living in terrible living conditions and meanwhile it
    cites accusations that the IDPs have turned into "political pawns" in
    Azerbaijan's politics.

    The most serious obstacle to dialogue and reconciliation between Armenian
    and Azeris is nationalism, the report says. The report ends with a very
    unpleasant sentence for both Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh. The ICG quotes
    the words of an Armenian student who says, "I am Yerevani and refuse to
    serve in the army once I graduate. I will simply leave Armenia because
    people from Karabakh are even worse than Azerbaijanis. Why do we have to
    serve them?"

    By Tatoul Hakobian
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