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ANALYSIS-Cyprus Will Hinder Not Block Turkey EU Talks

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  • ANALYSIS-Cyprus Will Hinder Not Block Turkey EU Talks

    ANALYSIS-CYPRUS WILL HINDER NOT BLOCK TURKEY EU TALKS
    By Michele Kambas

    Reuters
    09/28/05 09:56 ET

    NICOSIA, Sept 28 (Reuters) - A divided Cyprus is unlikely to block
    Turkey's path in talks on joining the European Union but will attempt
    to wring concessions from the big, Muslim nation every step of the way,
    analysts said.

    Greek Cypriots, who represent Cyprus in the EU, will be reluctant to
    use their veto against Turkey in the talks, which start on Monday,
    for fear of further damaging U.N. efforts to end the Mediterranean
    island's 31-year division, officials said.

    But they could still create headaches for the EU in each of the 35
    sections of membership negotiations, known as chapters, which require
    unanimity from all 25 members. The EU is already facing objections
    from members such as France and Austria.

    "It is our right (to use the veto), as it is the right of other member
    states, but we are not thinking about it right now," said a senior
    Cypriot official who requested anonymity.

    Analysts say Cyprus is sure to constantly remind both Turkey and
    the EU of any shortcomings, but Greek Cypriots know it is in their
    interest to have Ankara in the EU rather than out.

    "It must be very distasteful for them to allow the process to go
    forward while Turkey is in occupation of part of Cyprus, but you have
    to balance that by looking forward in the hope Turkey becomes more
    moderate and European," said analyst James Ker-Lindsay, director of
    Civilitas Research in Nicosia.

    DIVISION RUN DEEP

    In divided Nicosia, Greek Cypriots can see a massive Turkish Cypriot
    flag painted on the jagged mountain slopes on Cyprus's northern rim.
    Both sides are heavily militarised.

    A ceasefire line laced with mines and patrolled by a U.N peacekeeping
    force separates Greeks from the smaller and less wealthy Turkish
    Cypriot community in the north.

    "This isn't Austria. The Austrians can have their opinions but they
    are not going to suffer if the door is closed in Turkey's face.
    Cyprus will," said Ker-Lindsay.

    Cyprus, internationally recognised and Greek Cypriot-ruled, had hoped
    Turkey's EU aspirations would help re-unite the island invaded by
    Turkey 1974 after a brief Greek-led coup.

    But the United Nations abandoned its efforts in 2004, stung by the
    rejection of its reunification plan. Another half-hearted attempt
    flopped earlier this year with diplomats blaming the Greek Cypriots
    for playing hard ball.

    The EU would rather not get involved. It is likely to try to skirt
    around sensitive issues in the talks but it remains to be seen whether
    this will be possible, said Phedon Nicolaides of the European Institute
    of Public Administration at Maastricht.

    "I think everyone will play for time. The Commission will play for
    time, the Turks will play for time. Everyone is hoping for a solution,
    but there is nothing suggesting the U.N. are undertaking any new
    initiative," he said.

    In a foretaste of what is to come, EU envoys spent much of September
    haggling over how to formulate a response to Ankara's refusal to
    recognise Cyprus without a peace deal first.

    And Cyprus has made clear it will fight hard on specific points,
    such as Turkey lifting a financially damaging blockade on Cypriot
    aircraft and vessels.

    Ankara has failed to fully comply with an accord extending its customs
    union to Cyprus, an issue which will be up for further review in
    2006. Failing implementation, Cyprus will want its EU partners to
    throw the book at Turkey.

    Among its own options are a recourse to the European Court and to
    report Turkey to the World Trade Organisation and GATT.

    "Turkey fully understands that if talks are to get off to a positive
    rhythmn then issues related to the customs union will be a priority,"
    said John Palmer, director at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

    Analysts warn that the EU and Cyprus should be careful not to push
    too hard a country that has had its pride pricked by criticism of
    its human rights record and Europeans openly cautious of admitting
    it into a largely Christian club.

    The European Parliament, in a non-binding resolution, said on Wednesday
    Turkey had to recognise the killing of Armenians under Ottoman rule
    in 1915 as genocide before it could join.

    "The difficulty for Cyprus is that Turkey is beginning to realise that
    they can get on without being a full member of the EU. It is not EU
    accession at all costs," said Tim Ash, emerging markets strategist
    at Bear Stearns in London.

    "They will want to push Turkey for concessions on Cyprus, but not
    too hard."
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