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Predicting earthquakes from space
RIA Novosti, Russia
March 31 2006
16:30 | 31/ 03/ 2006
MOSCOW. (Yury Zaitsev for RIA Novosti.) - A Russian strategic
nuclear-powered submarine is poised to launch an innovative, compact,
80-kg spacecraft from the Barents Sea in the second quarter of
this year.
The Compass 2 satellite is expected to help make the first step in
the practical forecasting of earthquakes from space.
The move comes as a result of extensive research into specific
phenomena in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere, often observed
prior to earthquakes, by the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism,
Ionosphere and Radio Waves Propagation (IZMIRAN) of the Russian
Academy of Sciences.
The first observations of ionosphere anomalies manifested days before
major earthquakes date back to the 1960s. At first, treated no more
seriously than UFOs, palm reading and astrology, the findings elbowed
their way into the scientific domain in 1979 as the institute launched
its Interkosmos 19 satellite. A recording analyzed after one major
earthquake showed a prolonged area (narrow in latitude and very broad
in longitude) of abnormal, low-frequency noise centered exactly above
the earthquake's epicenter several hours before the first shock was
felt. Officially registered as a scientific discovery, the phenomenon
was later confirmed by findings from other satellites.
This area of research received a powerful push in December 1988 in
the wake of a devastating earthquake in Armenia. A pool of Soviet
scientific institutions developed a forecasting system that was to
be deployed first onboard the Mir orbiter and then across the orbit
within a network of unmanned spacecraft. After the Mir, Salyut 6,
and Salyut 7 completed the early stages of the plan, the program
was effectively buried with the demise of the Soviet Union, but went
forward at the end of the turbulent 1990s.
While other precursors of major earthquakes - the concentration of
radon, an inert gas, near the epicenter; the concentration of electrons
in the ionosphere above the epicenter; and the content of crust-emitted
metal-rich aerosols in the air, leading to an abnormally strong
electric field there - had been piling up for a long time, they were
always obtained as by-products of other research programs. Sufficient
statistical data array required a separate specialized satellite.
In 2001, the institute took the lead in the effort, committing to make
a satellite and inviting the Makeyev State Missile Center (Miass,
Urals) to convert the Shtil (SS-N-23 Skiff) military missile into a
launch vehicle for the project. Later, however, Makeyev also had to
develop the satellite under the effort codenamed Vulkan (Volcano)
in the Russian Space Agency's 2001-2005 Federal Space Program.
The first international Complex Orbital Magneto-Plasma Autonomous
Small Satellite, or Compass, was orbited in December 2001 as a
by-load together with the Meteor 3M, a Russian weather satellite,
to provide insight into possible links between Earth's crust and
magnetosphere behavior. This first field test of an earthquake forecast
assessment system largely failed because, while early findings were
very promising, the equipment developed jointly by Russia, Hungary,
Greece, Ukraine and Poland soon ceased to operate.
Certain progress was made, however, as the data of Compass's launch
mate, Meteor 3M, were analyzed by special methods to obtain earthquake
precursors. On aggregate, 44 of 47 events registered between October
2002 and May 2003 agreed with data retrieved from land-based seismic
records. The generally positive result has led to the upcoming Compass
2 launch and is likely to lead to a follow-up Compass 3 effort. The
latter satellite is to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2006 to
test more modern and efficient monitoring systems.
The International Space Station has also been long helping collect
ionosphere information. Thanks to the ISS's low orbit, some research
programs crucial for the future Vulkan disaster forecasting system
have been conducted here as part of a broader effort codenamed Uragan
(Hurricane).
On the ground, the Vulkan will include a network of geophysical
laboratories, a downlink station and an analysis center. The ground
facilities lack the scope and access to recordable events, which
explains the need for an orbital component to yield a global survey
of seismic activity with accurately timed warnings (one to five
days between a precursor and a possible earthquake). All in all,
two groups of small satellites are to be deployed at 400-500- and
900-1,000-km solar synchronous orbits.
When fully operational, the Vulkan's ground and spaceborne components
will collect, process and analyze the disaster precursor data, thus
contributing to medium-, long- and short-term plans of emergency
management services in Russia and internationally.
Yury Zaitsev is an expert with the Space Research Institute at the
Russian Academy of Sciences.
RIA Novosti, Russia
March 31 2006
16:30 | 31/ 03/ 2006
MOSCOW. (Yury Zaitsev for RIA Novosti.) - A Russian strategic
nuclear-powered submarine is poised to launch an innovative, compact,
80-kg spacecraft from the Barents Sea in the second quarter of
this year.
The Compass 2 satellite is expected to help make the first step in
the practical forecasting of earthquakes from space.
The move comes as a result of extensive research into specific
phenomena in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere, often observed
prior to earthquakes, by the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism,
Ionosphere and Radio Waves Propagation (IZMIRAN) of the Russian
Academy of Sciences.
The first observations of ionosphere anomalies manifested days before
major earthquakes date back to the 1960s. At first, treated no more
seriously than UFOs, palm reading and astrology, the findings elbowed
their way into the scientific domain in 1979 as the institute launched
its Interkosmos 19 satellite. A recording analyzed after one major
earthquake showed a prolonged area (narrow in latitude and very broad
in longitude) of abnormal, low-frequency noise centered exactly above
the earthquake's epicenter several hours before the first shock was
felt. Officially registered as a scientific discovery, the phenomenon
was later confirmed by findings from other satellites.
This area of research received a powerful push in December 1988 in
the wake of a devastating earthquake in Armenia. A pool of Soviet
scientific institutions developed a forecasting system that was to
be deployed first onboard the Mir orbiter and then across the orbit
within a network of unmanned spacecraft. After the Mir, Salyut 6,
and Salyut 7 completed the early stages of the plan, the program
was effectively buried with the demise of the Soviet Union, but went
forward at the end of the turbulent 1990s.
While other precursors of major earthquakes - the concentration of
radon, an inert gas, near the epicenter; the concentration of electrons
in the ionosphere above the epicenter; and the content of crust-emitted
metal-rich aerosols in the air, leading to an abnormally strong
electric field there - had been piling up for a long time, they were
always obtained as by-products of other research programs. Sufficient
statistical data array required a separate specialized satellite.
In 2001, the institute took the lead in the effort, committing to make
a satellite and inviting the Makeyev State Missile Center (Miass,
Urals) to convert the Shtil (SS-N-23 Skiff) military missile into a
launch vehicle for the project. Later, however, Makeyev also had to
develop the satellite under the effort codenamed Vulkan (Volcano)
in the Russian Space Agency's 2001-2005 Federal Space Program.
The first international Complex Orbital Magneto-Plasma Autonomous
Small Satellite, or Compass, was orbited in December 2001 as a
by-load together with the Meteor 3M, a Russian weather satellite,
to provide insight into possible links between Earth's crust and
magnetosphere behavior. This first field test of an earthquake forecast
assessment system largely failed because, while early findings were
very promising, the equipment developed jointly by Russia, Hungary,
Greece, Ukraine and Poland soon ceased to operate.
Certain progress was made, however, as the data of Compass's launch
mate, Meteor 3M, were analyzed by special methods to obtain earthquake
precursors. On aggregate, 44 of 47 events registered between October
2002 and May 2003 agreed with data retrieved from land-based seismic
records. The generally positive result has led to the upcoming Compass
2 launch and is likely to lead to a follow-up Compass 3 effort. The
latter satellite is to be launched in the fourth quarter of 2006 to
test more modern and efficient monitoring systems.
The International Space Station has also been long helping collect
ionosphere information. Thanks to the ISS's low orbit, some research
programs crucial for the future Vulkan disaster forecasting system
have been conducted here as part of a broader effort codenamed Uragan
(Hurricane).
On the ground, the Vulkan will include a network of geophysical
laboratories, a downlink station and an analysis center. The ground
facilities lack the scope and access to recordable events, which
explains the need for an orbital component to yield a global survey
of seismic activity with accurately timed warnings (one to five
days between a precursor and a possible earthquake). All in all,
two groups of small satellites are to be deployed at 400-500- and
900-1,000-km solar synchronous orbits.
When fully operational, the Vulkan's ground and spaceborne components
will collect, process and analyze the disaster precursor data, thus
contributing to medium-, long- and short-term plans of emergency
management services in Russia and internationally.
Yury Zaitsev is an expert with the Space Research Institute at the
Russian Academy of Sciences.