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RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
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RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 9, No. 13, 10 April 2006
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL's Newsline Team
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HEADLINES:
* AGENDA FOR IRANIAN-U.S. TALKS ON IRAQ REPORTEDLY SET
* KURDISH ACTIVISTS JAILED IN IRAN
* DISSIDENT JOURNALIST'S PRISON RELEASE DELAYED
* ALLEGED EFFORT TO KILL BALUCHI LEADER FAILS
* MILITARY EXERCISES TAKE PLACE NEAR HOLY CITY
* IRAN'S NAVAL DOCTRINE STRESSES AREA DENIAL
* PERSIAN GULF WAR GAMES PURPORTEDLY SIGNAL 'CONVERGENCE' WITH NEIGHBORS
* IRAN CONDUCTS SEVERAL MISSILE TESTS
* IRAN EMPHASIZES REGIONAL PEACE
* AMBASSADOR CALLS FOR NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO NUCLEAR ROW
* EARTHQUAKE SURVIVORS CRITICIZE ASSISTANCE EFFORTS
* TEHRAN DENOUNCES U.S. DEMOCRACY PROMOTION
* POLITICAL ACTIVISTS VOW TO STEER CLEAR OF POSSIBLE U.S. FUNDING
* RIGHTS LEADER SAYS REFORMISTS SEEK TO REGAIN STRENGTH
***************************************** *******************
AGENDA FOR IRANIAN-U.S. TALKS ON IRAQ REPORTEDLY SET. Tehran's
charge d'affaires in Baghdad, Hassan Kazemi-Qomi, said on April 4
that Iranian-U.S. talks about Iraqi affairs will take place with the
participation of Iraqi officials, Radio Farda reported. He said the
actual talks will come after a determination on the level at which
they will be staged. Kazemi-Qomi said that both Tehran and Washington
agree that the formation of a united Iraqi government must take place
as soon as possible. He said the Shi'ite parties who won the
elections must hold a majority in the government, Radio Farda
reported.
An anonymous source in the Supreme National Security Council
told Mehr News Agency on April 4 that the purported talks will begin
on April 8. The Iranian delegation will be led by National Security
Council officials Ali Husseini-Tash and Aziz Jaafari and will include
Foreign Ministry officials.
"Al-Quds al-Arabi," an Arabic newspaper from the United
Kingdom, quoted anonymous Shi'ite sources in Baghdad as saying
that preparatory discussions for the Iranian-U.S. talks have already
commenced between the two countries' intelligence services and
their diplomatic representatives in Iraq. The sources asserted that
Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, secretary of Iran's Guardians Council,
is already in Baghdad for the talks.
"Al-Watan," a Saudi daily, on March 26 quoted "well-informed
U.S. sources" who said the talks have begun. The sources said the
agenda has been set and is restricted to Iraqi affairs but includes
formation of a government, U.S. bases, and Iranian intelligence
activities.
The possibility of such discussions has not been welcomed by
all Iranians. The Justice-Seeking Student Movement (Junbish-i
Idalatkhah-i Daneshjui) on April 5 issued a statement criticizing the
upcoming talks between Iran and the United States, Mehr News Agency
reported, and announced that a rally against the talks will take
place in front of the Supreme National Security Council building in
Tehran on April 8. The movement said the official stance on talks
with the United States is insufficiently transparent and at present
such talks are not in the Iranian interest, so they should not take
place.
Islamabad-i Gharb parliamentary representative Heshmat
Falahat-Pisheh was quoted in the April 4 "Etemad-i Melli" as saying
that Iran should get concessions from the United States in exchange
for helping it in Iraq. Falahat-Pisheh said the nuclear issue is a
particularly important area in which concessions should be secured.
Hussein Shariatmadari, the supreme leader's
representative at the Kayhan Institute, editorialized in "Kayhan" on
April 3 that he warned in an earlier editorial against holding talks
with the United States. Shariatmadari noted with approval Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's March 21 speech, in which he
"rejected" negotiations with Washington and said Iranian officials
will only express their views on Iraq. Shariatmadari said the minimum
conditions for holding talks do not exist. He said the sides are to
discuss security, for example, but according to the supreme leader
the occupation of Iraq is the main cause of insecurity. "How can we
negotiate with the occupier of Iraq on security conditions in this
country?!" Shariatmadari asked. "Assuming that America may be
considered as a party for talks while we do not even think America
deserves to be talked to,... negotiating with America on security
will be impossible and unreasonable in essence."
It is a bad time for Iran to discuss anything with the United
States, conservative commentator Amir Mohebbian wrote in the April 6
"Resalat" newspaper. The timing of Tehran's agreement to engage
in talks on Iraq suggests that this reflects an effort to alleviate
international pressure on the Islamic Republic. Mohebbian suggested
discussing a range of issues, so strengths and weaknesses could
offset each other. He also warned of the impression that Iran will
look like it is supporting one Iraqi group -- the Shiites -- whereas
the U.S. will appear to be the supporter of Sunnis, Kurds, and other
minorities, thereby reinforcing American "propaganda" that Iran is
interfering in Iraqi affairs. Mohebbian continued, "Holding talks
with Americans in Iraq and about Iraq...is not good for Iran's
image. And it is not good even for Iran's interests in Iraq and
among the countries of the region." The disagreements between
Washington and Tehran are so extensive, Mohebbian added, that "these
talks will have no results and Iran will be demonstrated to have a
weak position." (Bill Samii)
KURDISH ACTIVISTS JAILED IN IRAN. Mohammad Sadiq Kabudvand, head of
the Organization for the Defense of Human Rights in Kurdistan, told
Radio Farda on April 5 that Mahabad resident Fateh Tirani has
received a six-year sentence, which includes a mandatory two-year
imprisonment in the town of Maragheh, and a four-year suspended
prison sentence. Tirani did not have legal representation. In the
town of Oshnavieh, a Western Azerbaijan Province court has given
Suleiman Minapak a two-year prison sentence. The two were sentenced
for their alleged membership in the Kurdistan Democratic Party of
Iran, and for publicizing its activities. Four other members of the
KDP-I were arrested in the town of Bukan the previous week and are
still being held. (Bill Samii)
DISSIDENT JOURNALIST'S PRISON RELEASE DELAYED. Dissident
journalist Akbar Ganji, who was released on prison leave in mid-March
and whose release was expected to take place during his leave period,
must return to confinement, the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA)
reported. This is because he was given a seven-day leave starting on
March 18, the unidentified deputy prosecutor for prison affairs said,
but Ganji did not return on March 25. The period he was absent
without leave will be added to his sentence, the official said. (Bill
Samii)
ALLEGED EFFORT TO KILL BALUCHI LEADER FAILS. An unnamed spokesman for
the ethnic Baluchi group called Jundullah said in an April 5
telephone call to Al-Arabiyah television that reports on Tehran TV
about the group's leader are untrue. The spokesman said Iranian
military forces tried to kill Abdulmalik Rigi in Dul Bandi, Sistan va
Baluchistan Province, hear the border with Pakistan. However, he
continued, they hit one of their own vehicles and killed its
occupants. The spokesman went on to say that Rigi is unharmed.
Jundullah has claimed responsibility for the March 16 attack on a
motorcade traveling between the cities of Zahedan and Zabol in which
more than 20 people were killed and another seven were injured (see
"RFE/RL Iran Report," 29 March 2006). The group released a videotape
in which it said it was holding several hostages. (Bill Samii)
MILITARY EXERCISES TAKE PLACE NEAR HOLY CITY. Twenty battalions made
up of Basij members working at government offices participated in the
Forces of Muhammad military exercise near the Tehran-Qom highway on
April 3, Fars News Agency reported. Commander Safar Ali Baratlu,
commander of the Basij forces of ministries and government offices,
said there are now 900,000 Basij members working in state
institutions. He did not specify whether that is a provincial or
national figure. By participating in this exercise as the "enemy"
tries to isolate Iran, he said, "government employees are
demonstrating a practical response to internal and external enemies
and proving their loyalty to the government." According to the
dispatch, these were asymmetric warfare exercises designed to counter
an enemy attack. This was the first time such exercises have taken
place, and the participants used small and medium-size weapons.
Rescue and relief operations took place, too. (Bill Samii)
IRAN'S NAVAL DOCTRINE STRESSES AREA DENIAL. Iran's testing of
the new Fajr-3 missile, torpedoes, and other types of hardware during
March 31-April 6 war games has overshadowed the exercises themselves.
But the maneuvers, which are taking place in the Persian Gulf, the
Straits of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman, are significant because they
highlight the role of naval power in Iran's military doctrine.
Iran's long coastline -- approximately 2,400 kilometers
in the south -- affects its military outlook, Defense Minister
Mustafa Mohammad Najjar said during an early January visit to the
southern port city of Bandar Abbas. "One of the strategies of the
Defense Ministry is to promote our operation and combat forces'
capabilities in the sea," he added. It would achieve this, he said,
by building ships and submarines and through cooperation with the
gulf's littoral states. Najjar went on to say that the navy
applies creative and innovative methods, uses asymmetric warfare, and
depends on domestically made products.
Later in the month, an Iranian military official stressed
"denial of access" and said the United States is very vulnerable at
sea. Mujtaba Zolnur, a high-ranking official at the Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), continued, "This is another weak
point of the enemy because we have certain methods for fighting in
the sea so that war will spread into the Sea of Oman and the Indian
Ocean," "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on January 23. "We will not let the
enemy inside our borders."
IRGC commander General Yahya Rahim-Safavi said in summer 2005
that the plans of the corps' navy include confronting aggressors
by using asymmetric warfare and by improving power-projection
capabilities, "Siyasat-i Ruz" and "Kayhan" reported on June 8.
A total of 38,000 men serve in Iran's conventional navy
and the IRGC navy, and these forces are believed to have a
significant capacity for regular and asymmetric naval warfare.
Rahim-Safavi added that the navy wants to improve its missile
systems and its surveillance capabilities, and it wants to strengthen
its defense of Persian Gulf islands.
The need to protect bases and oil facilities in the Persian
Gulf makes "area denial" through mine warfare a major aspect of
Iranian naval doctrine. Mines were used during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq
War. Today, Iran has three to five ships with minesweeping and
mine-laying capabilities, and many of its smaller vessels can lay
mines. Aircraft can drop mines, too.
Tehran has occasionally threatened to use mines to block the
Straits of Hormuz, described by the U.S.'s Energy Information
Administration as "by far the world's most important oil choke
point." In February 2005 congressional testimony, the Defense
Intelligence Agency director, Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, addressed
this possibility by saying that Iran would rely on a "layered
strategy" that uses naval, air, and some ground forces to "briefly"
close the straits. Iran's purchase of North Korean fast-attack
craft and midget submarines improved this capability, he said.
Missiles are important for "area denial" as well. Iran
compensates for limited air power and surface-vessel capabilities
with an emphasis on antiship missiles. Four of these systems were
obtained from China -- the long-range Seersucker missile, as well as
the CS-801, CS-801K, and CS-802 antiship missiles. There are reports
that Iran has purchased Ukrainian antiship missiles. Most commercial
shipping is within range of missiles based on Iranian islands in the
Persian Gulf.
In an effort to limit hostile air power in the region, Iran
might target air bases to its south, or it could try to strike
aircraft carriers outside the gulf. Submarines could be used for the
latter assignment, and the port of Chah Bahar on the Sea of Oman is
being modified to serve the kilo-class submarines Iran purchased from
Russia in the 1990s.
As the Persian Gulf war games continued and Iran demonstrated
new types of equipment, Tehran sought to reassure the international
community of its benign intentions. Foreign Minister Manuchehr
Mottaki said on April 4 that the country's military doctrine is
essentially defensive, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)
reported. (Bill Samii)
PERSIAN GULF WAR GAMES PURPORTEDLY SIGNAL 'CONVERGENCE' WITH
NEIGHBORS. Iranian ships maneuvered in the Straits of Hormuz and
practiced electronic countermeasures on April 2, the third day of the
Noble Prophet naval war games that began on March 31, state
television reported. Antiaircraft exercises reportedly took place as
well, and an anonymous "official" said anti-submarine activities took
place in the straits, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of Oman.
Personnel from the Basij Mobilization Forces participated in the
exercises on April 1, state television reported. Two thousand Basij
members and 400 Basij vessels were used in what was described as
"exercises designed to defend cities as well as civil relief and
rescue operations."
The spokesman for the war games, Vice Rear Admiral Mohammad
Ebrahim Dehqani, said on March 31 that 17,000 people, 1,500 vessels,
and aircraft are participating in the exercises, which should last
until April 6, IRNA reported.
As the exercises entered their fourth day on 3 April, Basij
commander Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi said his force is ready
to defend the country, Fars News Agency reported. He added that the
war games reflect Iran's policy of "convergence" with neighboring
Persian Gulf states. Insecurity caused by aliens, Hejazi said, has a
cost for the enemy and those who undermine regional stability.
Referring to an earlier missile test conducted by the Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (see below), Hejazi said that only Iran's
enemies should be fearful. He added that all the countries in the
region benefit from the establishment of security, and this security
helps Iran economically. Therefore, he continued, Iran would not seek
to destabilize the region. (Bill Samii)
IRAN CONDUCTS SEVERAL MISSILE TESTS. On the penultimate day of naval
exercises in the Persian Gulf, Iran claimed it successfully tested a
"top secret missile," state television reported on April 5. The
missile, developed by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and fired
from a helicopter, reportedly employs "over the horizon targeting"
(OTH-T), which is a radar system with a range that exceeds line of
sight. State radio falsely claimed, "Iran is the first country to
have this capability." The American Harpoon missile has OTH-T
capabilities and has existed for nearly 30 years, for example. The
Harpoon can also be launched from aircraft, ships, and submarines. In
another first, a cruise missile with a 200-kilometer range was
reportedly fired from a helicopter on April 5, Iranian state
television reported.
After the demonstration of the Misaq anti-aircraft
shoulder-launched missile on April 4, war-games spokesman Mohammad
Ibrahim Dehqani said the missile can be neither detected nor
intercepted. The other missile that was tested that day, the Kosar,
can be fired from a ship or from land at a target on the water.
Dehqani stressed that this missile is also difficult to intercept.
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps' (IRGC) navy
successfully test-fired a powerful subsurface missile on April 2, dpa
reported, citing an IRNA report. General Ali Fadavi, deputy commander
of the IRGC navy, said the torpedo can reach a maximum speed of 100
meters per second but provided no other information. AP quoted state
television reporting that the weapon could destroy virtually any
warship or submarine. Dubai's Al-Arabiyah television also
reported on the missile test, using Iranian video footage, as did
Pakistani television from Islamabad.
Meanwhile, on March 31, IRGC air-force chief General Hussein
Salami described the launch the same day of a "new missile with more
modern tactical and technical capabilities compared to previous
generations of missiles," state television reported. He said the
missile has multiple warheads that can hit different targets, and it
can evade radar and any country's antimissile defense systems.
U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said on March 31
that the surface-to-surface missile test the same day "demonstrates
that Iran has a very active and aggressive military program under
way," Radio Farda reported. That program, Ereli charged, includes the
development of weapons of mass destruction and the necessary delivery
systems. Ereli added that Iranian military activities worry the
world. "I think Iran's military posture [and]
military-development effort is of concern to the international
community, as evidenced by the kind of consensus you're seeing
with regard to their nuclear program, as well as other
nonproliferation concerns," he said, according to Radio Farda.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of
Strategies and Technologies, told Ekho Moskvy radio on March 31 that
Iranian defense industries are insufficiently developed to create
world-class missiles. "It is hard to imagine that this missile is a
100-percent Iranian development," he continued. "Most probably it is
a clone of a Chinese missile or Chinese and old Soviet technologies
combined." This makes the missile predictable and easy to intercept,
he said. Pukhov described the Iranian claims as an effort to fight
the United States on the "information front." An unnamed "Israeli
missile expert" quoted by the newspaper "Yediot Aharanot" on April 2
said the Iranian claim is "detached from reality." (Bill Samii)
IRAN EMPHASIZES REGIONAL PEACE. On the heels of the test-firings of
two missiles earlier in the week and during continuing naval war
games in the south, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) chief
Yahya Rahim-Safavi said on April 4 that his organization's navy
can defend Iran's islands in the Persian Gulf, IRNA reported. He
added that the navy can launch land-to-sea missiles a distance of
2,000 kilometers. Rahim-Safavi emphasized that Iran wants regional
peace and security, and said this is impossible until foreign forces
withdraw from Iraq.
Rahim-Safavi said on April 5 that the United States should
recognize Iran as a "regional power," state television and IRNA
reported. Speaking in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas,
Rahim-Safavi went on to say that Washington should know that threats
or sanctions will work against U.S. and European interests.
Iran's "Noble Prophet" naval exercises ended on April 6,
and Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammad Najjar announced in Bandar
Abbas on that day that Iran is willing to conduct joint exercises
with any of the Persian Gulf littoral states, IRNA reported. He added
that Iran is willing to sign a non-aggression pact with any of its
southern neighbors. Noting the demonstrations of new equipment during
the exercises, he promised more in the near future. Also in Bandar
Abbas, Islamic revolution guards Corps commander Yahya Rahim-Safavi
said, "We hope the trans-regional powers have got the message of the
war game," IRNA reported. He warned that insecurity in Iran is a
threat to trans-regional powers. (Bill Samii)
AMBASSADOR CALLS FOR NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO NUCLEAR ROW. Mohammad
Javad Zarif, Iran United Nations ambassador, said in an April 6 op-ed
in "The New York Times" that a negotiated solution to the Iranian
nuclear crisis is "possible and eminently within reach," and added
that Tehran has tried to "resuscitate" negotiations with Berlin,
London, and Paris. Not only has Iran accepted rigorous inspections by
the UN since October 203, but "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of
the Islamic Republic, has issued a decree against the development,
production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons." Zarif concluded
by saying that "pressure and threats" will not yield results, whereas
"political will" and "serious negotiations" will produce a solution.
(Bill Samii)
EARTHQUAKE SURVIVORS CRITICIZE ASSISTANCE EFFORTS. Hanif Yazdani, a
resident of the quake-stricken town of Dorud in Luristan Province,
told Radio Farda that some 600-700 locals demonstrated in front of
the governorate on April 1 over what they view as slow and inadequate
provision of emergency services. Three earthquakes struck western
Iran early on March 31, with Interior Ministry official Mohammad
Hussein Shiri saying the next day that 70 people had been killed and
almost 1,300 injured. Shiri said at that time that relief had reached
90 percent of the damaged area, but, according to Yazdani, some 400
people are still without tents. Even people whose houses were not
destroyed by the initial quakes are reluctant to go home because they
fear aftershocks, Yazdani said. Yazdani told Radio Farda that 160
riot-control personnel (niruha-yi zed-i shuresh) attacked the
demonstrators, and shots were fired in the air. Yazdani added that
the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps began distributing tents and will
enforce order. Yazdani ascribed other relief delays for the
impoverished area to bureaucracy, corruption, favoritism, and
nepotism.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ereli on March 31 read a
letter from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in which she
expresses condolences to victims of the Luristan earthquake, Radio
Farda reported. The letter also mentions the possibility of U.S.
assistance: "We wish to support efforts under way to help those
suffering as a result of this tragedy. The United States is ready to
provide humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people in this time of
need."
Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns telephoned Iran's
ambassador to the UN, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on March 31 to express
sympathies and offer assistance that would include blankets and
water, IRNA reported. Zarif said Iran is not yet seeking
international aid.
IRNA reported on March 31 that the United States "uses"
humanitarian disasters like the recent Luristan earthquakes to show
the Iranian people "it has a humanitarian heart" so it can "create a
wedge between the people and the government." State radio reacted to
the U.S. offers by saying on April 1 that "the objectives and motives
behind the deceptive and misleading sympathies expressed by [U.S.
President George W.] Bush and [Secretary] Rice for the quake victims
in Iran are apparent to the Iranian people. And if the officials in
Washington are sincere, instead of promising to help, they should
recognize the rights of the Iranian nation in nuclear technology."
Iran has previously accepted U.S. earthquake relief, and the
extent of the assistance after the December 2003 earthquake in Bam
led to speculation that official contacts could follow. Tehran dashed
these hopes when it rejected a visit by a high-level U.S. delegation
that would include North Carolina Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole
(see "RFE/RL Iran Report," 12 January 2004). Tehran would later
ascribe its failure to assist quake victims in a timely fashion to
the failure of other countries to meet assistance commitments, but
the Red Crescent Society demanded an accounting because only $1.9
million of the more than $11.8 million in foreign funds reached the
victims (see "RFE/RL Iran Report," 15 March 2004).
Aid from others donors was accepted. For example, Russia sent
aid on April 1, according to Russia's RTR television, and
Pakistan sent aid the next day, IRNA reported.
UNICEF has committed $100,000 to assist young victims of the
March 31 earthquake, "Iran" newspaper reported on April 4. Christine
Salazar Volkmann, the UNICEF spokeswoman in Iran, said after a visit
to the city of Borujerd in Luristan that children had spent several
nights out in the cold since the tremors. UNICEF's Iran office
has distributed 10,000 cots and 300 tents, "Iran" reported. The
UNICEF office added that experts on children's health have been
sent to the region. An April 3 statement from the United Nations
added that the World Health Organization (WHO) has established an
office in Dorud, one of the worst-hit cities, and is sending enough
supplies for the treatment of 20,000 people, AP reported. A total of
$450,000 has been committed by UN agencies. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN DENOUNCES U.S. DEMOCRACY PROMOTION. "Friends of Uncle Sam in
Iran," Tehran television announced on April 6. An unnamed U.S. deputy
secretary of state has announced that unnamed Iranian NGOs are
receiving "tips and wages" from the U.S. These NGOS, Tehran
television continued, will do Washington's bidding under the
guise of "human rights and democracy." (Bill Samii)
POLITICAL ACTIVISTS VOW TO STEER CLEAR OF POSSIBLE U.S. FUNDING.
Prominent activists and political opponents of Iran's hard-line
administration are warning that U.S. funds designated to help civic
groups could backfire. The Bush administration recently (in February)
announced plans to seek $75 million in emergency funding to promote
democracy in Iran, in addition to $10 million already budgeted. A
loose affiliation of intellectuals at home and abroad has rejected
such aid as "an insult" to the Iranian people. And the fear of any
perception of subservience to a foreign government is strong.
While gauging public opinion can be a tall order in Iran,
many of those who have spoken out so far say they are keen to
maintain their independence. They say they don't need American
money to continue their efforts to promote democracy in Iran.
Mohammad Ali Dadkhah is a co-founder of the Center for Human
Rights Defenders. Dadkhah tells RFE/RL that democratic changes should
come from inside the country -- without outside interference.
"Democracy is not a product that we can import from another country,"
Dadkhah says. "We have to prepare the ground for it so that it can
grow and bear fruit -- especially because independent and national
forces, and also self-reliant forces, in Iran will never accept a
foreign country telling them what to do and which way to take."
The proposed U.S. aid would include $25 million to support
"political dissidents, labor union leaders, and human rights
activists" in additional to nongovernmental groups outside Iran. The
declared aim is to allow them to build support inside the country.
The U.S. administration also wants $50 million to set up
round-the-clock television broadcasting in Persian to beam into Iran.
Another $5 million is aimed at allowing Iranian students and scholars
to study in the United States. And $15 million is earmarked for other
measures like expanding Internet access, which is tightly controlled
in Iran.
Wary Of Perceptions
It can be difficult to measure broad public opinion in Iran,
whose authorities keep a tight lid on public expression. But most
activists inside the country would be wary of being labeled
pro-American.
Dadkhah says that if activists were to accept the U.S. aid,
they would immediately be branded U.S. spies and accused of
endangering Iran's national security. "Independent forces would
go close to these financial funds," Dadkhah says. "We have to work
through legal paths and logical channels so that democracy, freedom,
and human rights are fully respected in this country."
Abdullah Momeni, an outspoken Iranian student leader, warns
that U.S. financial aid would threaten the independence of those
seeking increased freedoms and put them at the official risk. Momeni
tells RFE/RL that those working for democracy in Iran instead need
moral support and international recognition. "Under the current
conditions, the support of the international community and pressure
on the authoritarian Iranian regime to recognize democratic
principles in Iranian society could help the Iranian people achieve
democracy," Momeni says. "The only result of financial aid would be
to inflame sensitivities, put civil society activists under threat,
and give the regime an excuse to suppress opponents and opposition
members."
Fiercely 'Independent Opposition'
A loose alliance of political activists and intellectuals
calling itself the Independent Iranian Opposition has issued a
statement declaring that "only the people will determine Iran's
fate." It adds that the independent Iranian opposition has always
battled with no expectation of financial assistance from "interested
foreign powers." It also pledges that members will continue their
efforts until a "free, independent, and democratic Iran" emerges.
A respected human-rights activist and lawyer, Mehrangiz Kar
is an Iranian woman who lives in the United States. Kar tells Radio
Farda that while money is important for rights groups to function,
"security" is even more crucial to their effectiveness. "The shaky
security under which human rights and democracy activists are working
in Iran would become even shakier and more uncertain [if U.S. funding
is involved]," Kar says. "So, in my opinion, if they could provide
security and money, that would be ideal. But since they can't,
sending money through government channels is one of the most damaging
ways that has been adopted in the name of helping democracy and human
rights in Iran."
Abbas Milani is a distinguished Iranian scholar and
co-director of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution.
Milani questions whether the new U.S. initiative would achieve its
goal of fostering democracy. He pointed out in a joint contribution
with Michael McFaul to "The Wall Street Journal" on March 6 that
while "outsiders find it easy to support democracy rhetorically," it
is harder to put such concepts into practice.
Milani warns the United States against support for "regime
change" through violence or for ethnic groups seeking independence
from Tehran. He insists that any new U.S. aid must empower "existing
democrats, not create democrats from [among] those with close ties to
Washington."
Meanwhile, Iranian officials have described the U.S.
administration's funding request as "provocative and
interventionist."
Iranian media reported in March that the Foreign Ministry
sent a letter of protest to Washington over the plan. Not to be
outdone, Iranian lawmakers have approved about $15 million to
"discover and neutralize American plots and intervention" in their
country. (Golnaz Esfandiari, Radio Farda's Maryam Ahmadi
contributed to this report)
RIGHTS LEADER SAYS REFORMISTS SEEK TO REGAIN STRENGTH. U.S. Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice called in February for the U.S. Congress to
allow Washington to increase spending on democracy programs for Iran
from $10 million to $75 million this year. Fatemeh Aman of
RFE/RL's Radio Farda interviewed Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, a leading
defender of human rights and advocate democracy in Iran, for her
views on the wisdom of such overt support, on how the crisis over
Iran's nuclear program is affecting the opposition, and on the
current mood among two key groups, women and students. A former
member of the Iranian parliament, Haghighatjoo resigned in 2004
following a crackdown on reformers. She is now a visiting scholar
with the Center of International Studies at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology in Boston, in the United States.
RFE/RL: As an active member of the Iranian reformists'
camp, how do you think Rice's $75 million proposal will affect
the democracy movement in Iran? Fatemeh Haghighatjoo: I don't
think this plan will help promote democracy in Iran. On the contrary,
it will weaken the position of pro-democracy activists in Iran. Even
before the United States announced this move, extreme right-wing
figures such as Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi [a cleric whose
followers include Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad], used to
accuse Iranian reformists of receiving suitcases from the United
States stuffed with dollars.
This rumor was the basis for the prosecution of many writers
and journalists. Many newspapers were banned and journalists jailed.
This monetary support will play into the hands of the totalitarian
regime in Tehran to systematically crack down on the democracy
movement. Having said that, I do agree with some of the points raised
by Rice, such as proposals about cultural and scientific exchange.
The U.S. government should ease restrictions on Iranians --
particularly academics -- for travel and for culture and scientific
exchanges.
RFE/RL: But if the regime is looking for an excuse,
couldn't it use even this kind of support against the democracy
movement?
Haghighatjoo: This is a long-term issue. Currently, the
biggest problem in Iran is the absence of an independent media.
Supporting independent media and the free flow of information will
have a significant impact on the promotion of democracy in Iran.
RFE/RL: Do you mean media within Iran, or outside the
country?
Haghighatjoo: Radio and television are run by the government.
Most newspapers and websites are also directly or indirectly run by
state institutions. The few independent media outlets there are also
under enormous pressure. So what we need are media outlets that are
independent of the Islamic Republic. As you know, Iran's Supreme
National Security Council has issued an order that bans media from
reporting about the standoff [with the West over Iran's nuclear
program]. Many people [in Iran] may not know that Iran has been
referred to the Security Council. This is the type of news that
[independent] media would be able to convey.
U.S. Model For The Middle East?
RFE/RL: Do you think that the United States has a viable
model for promoting democracy in the Middle East? How successful do
you think this plan could be in the region?
Haghighatjoo: I personally believe that the drive to promote
democracy in the Middle East stems primarily from U.S. national
interests and the threat of terrorism. Efforts to fight terrorism can
also help promote democracy, but once democracy and the principles of
voting are accepted, you can't complain about the outcome. A lot
of people in the United States are worried about this and are even
raising the question whether democracy is appropriate for the Middle
East. This is a short-sighted view.
The second point is that democracy cannot be imposed by war.
What we should be working on is promoting the culture of democracy in
the Middle East. I think the United States needs to revise many of
its policies. Promoting democracy has to be adjusted to suit the
cultural specificities of these countries. The military option is by
nature antidemocratic. Look at Iraq. There are certainly some
positive trends there, such as free elections. But the negative
aspects predominate, at least for now.
The Nuclear Crisis And The Reformers
RFE/RL: Before the Iranian presidential elections in June
2005, you predicted that if Ahmadinejad were elected, it would
militarize Iranian politics and increase pressure on the democracy
movement. Now it seems that the nuclear standoff is also helping the
militarists. What can Iranian activists do to have an influence on
this process, or prevent it from moving ahead?
Haghighatjoo: I think if the United Nations were to pressure
Iran on the issue of human rights, rather than on the nuclear issue,
it would have been much more effective. The regime would never have
been able to manage to create such a united front against it. People
would certainly not let the regime violate human rights and justify
it as being in the national interest -- whereas they have been able
to create some degree of unity among different factions of the regime
and make a national-interest issue out of the nuclear standoff. Any
military action or even indiscriminate sanctions against Iran will
strengthen the position of the totalitarian elements within the
Islamic Republic. I hope the Security Council is aware of this fact.
RFE/RL: Why are the reformers so quiet? Is it a temporary
tactic, or is it out of fear of prosecution?
Haghighatjoo: I am not entirely uncritical of the policy of
the reformers in Iran. But the fact is that they are under enormous
pressure. Events such as the appearance of Akbar Atri and Ali Afshari
[of the Office for Strengthening Unity, an umbrella student group]
before the U.S. Congress in March also increase the pressure on the
reformers. After the topic of the $75 million in aid came up, many
Iranians were arrested who had in the past attended the Iran Human
Rights Documentation Center in New Haven [which documents human
rights abuses in Iran, and receives U.S. funding]. It's important
to act in a way that doesn't raise the price of activism in Iran.
RFE/RL: Before the election, you predicted that an
Ahmadinejad government could only survive in a crisis. Is the nuclear
standoff the type of crisis that you believe he's been seeking?
Haghighatjoo: Yes, a crisis like this. And also possibly a
military attack. A military attack, in particular, would help them to
strengthen themselves enormously. The different factions have now
found a common enemy. Without this [nuclear] crisis, the parliament
and the executive would now be engaged in a bitter fight, and the
rift between [and current chair of the Expediency Council, which has
supervisory powers over all branches of government, and former
President] Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad or [Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei would have deepened.
Iran's Rebellious Women?
RFE/RL: Let's turn to women's issues. The governments
of Ahmadinejad and [former President Mohammad] Khatami's
governments differ in this regard tremendously. You had said that
Khordad 2nd -- the date, in the Islamic calendar, when Khatami won
his first election, and the subsequent name of Iran's reformist
movement -- would have not happened without women. Do you think the
achievements of the women's movement during that time are being
lost irreversibly?
Haghighatjoo: Well, as I said, the pressure is immense, and
it has silenced even the most outspoken reformers. I don't think
the current situation will put an end to the women's movement,
but it will have a significant negative impact on it. Activities will
diminish, but the demands will still be there, and they will be
expressed again once the situation improves. We should also realize
that these pressures may trigger a rebellious response. Previously,
women always sought permission for their gatherings. However, many
women's groups don't bother with that anymore. I think
women's demands and the form of their protests will change.
The Importance Of Students
RFE/RL: Will the next major movement in Iran be a student
movement?
Haghighatjoo: The generation of the Islamic Revolution is
committed to the Islamic Republic and the concept of a religion-based
governance. Both the reformists and the conservatives are from this
generation. Many reformists still support the concept of "Vilayat-i
Faqih," or supreme jurisprudence. But the new generation is not
interested in the model of the Islamic Republic; it supports a
secular model instead. Secularism -- not exactly as practiced in
France or Turkey, but as a system based on the separation of the
institution of religion from the institution of power. This
generation cannot see their freedom being restricted in the name of
religion.
The next leaders of the Iranian democracy movement will be
those who fight for a secular constitution, and this potential exists
in the student movement. I believe that no broad political movement
can take root in Iran without the students. However, the student
movement is not yet mature, and cannot lead to a widespread civic
movement by itself. The student movement must ally itself with elites
who follow the same principles. The religious elites cannot be allied
with the student movement. We see now that the demarcation between
the religious elites and the student movement is becoming
increasingly clear. I don't think a widespread movement will take
shape soon. However, if the students make the right moves and take
advantage of political opportunities that may come up, they can pave
the way for a broad civic movement.
*************************************** ******************
Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The "RFE/RL Iran Report" is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services. It is distributed every Monday.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
For information on reprints, see:
http://www.rferl.org/about/content/request.as p
Back issues are online at http://www.rferl.org/reports/iran-report/
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 9, No. 13, 10 April 2006
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL's Newsline Team
******************************************** ****************
HEADLINES:
* AGENDA FOR IRANIAN-U.S. TALKS ON IRAQ REPORTEDLY SET
* KURDISH ACTIVISTS JAILED IN IRAN
* DISSIDENT JOURNALIST'S PRISON RELEASE DELAYED
* ALLEGED EFFORT TO KILL BALUCHI LEADER FAILS
* MILITARY EXERCISES TAKE PLACE NEAR HOLY CITY
* IRAN'S NAVAL DOCTRINE STRESSES AREA DENIAL
* PERSIAN GULF WAR GAMES PURPORTEDLY SIGNAL 'CONVERGENCE' WITH NEIGHBORS
* IRAN CONDUCTS SEVERAL MISSILE TESTS
* IRAN EMPHASIZES REGIONAL PEACE
* AMBASSADOR CALLS FOR NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO NUCLEAR ROW
* EARTHQUAKE SURVIVORS CRITICIZE ASSISTANCE EFFORTS
* TEHRAN DENOUNCES U.S. DEMOCRACY PROMOTION
* POLITICAL ACTIVISTS VOW TO STEER CLEAR OF POSSIBLE U.S. FUNDING
* RIGHTS LEADER SAYS REFORMISTS SEEK TO REGAIN STRENGTH
***************************************** *******************
AGENDA FOR IRANIAN-U.S. TALKS ON IRAQ REPORTEDLY SET. Tehran's
charge d'affaires in Baghdad, Hassan Kazemi-Qomi, said on April 4
that Iranian-U.S. talks about Iraqi affairs will take place with the
participation of Iraqi officials, Radio Farda reported. He said the
actual talks will come after a determination on the level at which
they will be staged. Kazemi-Qomi said that both Tehran and Washington
agree that the formation of a united Iraqi government must take place
as soon as possible. He said the Shi'ite parties who won the
elections must hold a majority in the government, Radio Farda
reported.
An anonymous source in the Supreme National Security Council
told Mehr News Agency on April 4 that the purported talks will begin
on April 8. The Iranian delegation will be led by National Security
Council officials Ali Husseini-Tash and Aziz Jaafari and will include
Foreign Ministry officials.
"Al-Quds al-Arabi," an Arabic newspaper from the United
Kingdom, quoted anonymous Shi'ite sources in Baghdad as saying
that preparatory discussions for the Iranian-U.S. talks have already
commenced between the two countries' intelligence services and
their diplomatic representatives in Iraq. The sources asserted that
Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, secretary of Iran's Guardians Council,
is already in Baghdad for the talks.
"Al-Watan," a Saudi daily, on March 26 quoted "well-informed
U.S. sources" who said the talks have begun. The sources said the
agenda has been set and is restricted to Iraqi affairs but includes
formation of a government, U.S. bases, and Iranian intelligence
activities.
The possibility of such discussions has not been welcomed by
all Iranians. The Justice-Seeking Student Movement (Junbish-i
Idalatkhah-i Daneshjui) on April 5 issued a statement criticizing the
upcoming talks between Iran and the United States, Mehr News Agency
reported, and announced that a rally against the talks will take
place in front of the Supreme National Security Council building in
Tehran on April 8. The movement said the official stance on talks
with the United States is insufficiently transparent and at present
such talks are not in the Iranian interest, so they should not take
place.
Islamabad-i Gharb parliamentary representative Heshmat
Falahat-Pisheh was quoted in the April 4 "Etemad-i Melli" as saying
that Iran should get concessions from the United States in exchange
for helping it in Iraq. Falahat-Pisheh said the nuclear issue is a
particularly important area in which concessions should be secured.
Hussein Shariatmadari, the supreme leader's
representative at the Kayhan Institute, editorialized in "Kayhan" on
April 3 that he warned in an earlier editorial against holding talks
with the United States. Shariatmadari noted with approval Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's March 21 speech, in which he
"rejected" negotiations with Washington and said Iranian officials
will only express their views on Iraq. Shariatmadari said the minimum
conditions for holding talks do not exist. He said the sides are to
discuss security, for example, but according to the supreme leader
the occupation of Iraq is the main cause of insecurity. "How can we
negotiate with the occupier of Iraq on security conditions in this
country?!" Shariatmadari asked. "Assuming that America may be
considered as a party for talks while we do not even think America
deserves to be talked to,... negotiating with America on security
will be impossible and unreasonable in essence."
It is a bad time for Iran to discuss anything with the United
States, conservative commentator Amir Mohebbian wrote in the April 6
"Resalat" newspaper. The timing of Tehran's agreement to engage
in talks on Iraq suggests that this reflects an effort to alleviate
international pressure on the Islamic Republic. Mohebbian suggested
discussing a range of issues, so strengths and weaknesses could
offset each other. He also warned of the impression that Iran will
look like it is supporting one Iraqi group -- the Shiites -- whereas
the U.S. will appear to be the supporter of Sunnis, Kurds, and other
minorities, thereby reinforcing American "propaganda" that Iran is
interfering in Iraqi affairs. Mohebbian continued, "Holding talks
with Americans in Iraq and about Iraq...is not good for Iran's
image. And it is not good even for Iran's interests in Iraq and
among the countries of the region." The disagreements between
Washington and Tehran are so extensive, Mohebbian added, that "these
talks will have no results and Iran will be demonstrated to have a
weak position." (Bill Samii)
KURDISH ACTIVISTS JAILED IN IRAN. Mohammad Sadiq Kabudvand, head of
the Organization for the Defense of Human Rights in Kurdistan, told
Radio Farda on April 5 that Mahabad resident Fateh Tirani has
received a six-year sentence, which includes a mandatory two-year
imprisonment in the town of Maragheh, and a four-year suspended
prison sentence. Tirani did not have legal representation. In the
town of Oshnavieh, a Western Azerbaijan Province court has given
Suleiman Minapak a two-year prison sentence. The two were sentenced
for their alleged membership in the Kurdistan Democratic Party of
Iran, and for publicizing its activities. Four other members of the
KDP-I were arrested in the town of Bukan the previous week and are
still being held. (Bill Samii)
DISSIDENT JOURNALIST'S PRISON RELEASE DELAYED. Dissident
journalist Akbar Ganji, who was released on prison leave in mid-March
and whose release was expected to take place during his leave period,
must return to confinement, the Iranian Labor News Agency (ILNA)
reported. This is because he was given a seven-day leave starting on
March 18, the unidentified deputy prosecutor for prison affairs said,
but Ganji did not return on March 25. The period he was absent
without leave will be added to his sentence, the official said. (Bill
Samii)
ALLEGED EFFORT TO KILL BALUCHI LEADER FAILS. An unnamed spokesman for
the ethnic Baluchi group called Jundullah said in an April 5
telephone call to Al-Arabiyah television that reports on Tehran TV
about the group's leader are untrue. The spokesman said Iranian
military forces tried to kill Abdulmalik Rigi in Dul Bandi, Sistan va
Baluchistan Province, hear the border with Pakistan. However, he
continued, they hit one of their own vehicles and killed its
occupants. The spokesman went on to say that Rigi is unharmed.
Jundullah has claimed responsibility for the March 16 attack on a
motorcade traveling between the cities of Zahedan and Zabol in which
more than 20 people were killed and another seven were injured (see
"RFE/RL Iran Report," 29 March 2006). The group released a videotape
in which it said it was holding several hostages. (Bill Samii)
MILITARY EXERCISES TAKE PLACE NEAR HOLY CITY. Twenty battalions made
up of Basij members working at government offices participated in the
Forces of Muhammad military exercise near the Tehran-Qom highway on
April 3, Fars News Agency reported. Commander Safar Ali Baratlu,
commander of the Basij forces of ministries and government offices,
said there are now 900,000 Basij members working in state
institutions. He did not specify whether that is a provincial or
national figure. By participating in this exercise as the "enemy"
tries to isolate Iran, he said, "government employees are
demonstrating a practical response to internal and external enemies
and proving their loyalty to the government." According to the
dispatch, these were asymmetric warfare exercises designed to counter
an enemy attack. This was the first time such exercises have taken
place, and the participants used small and medium-size weapons.
Rescue and relief operations took place, too. (Bill Samii)
IRAN'S NAVAL DOCTRINE STRESSES AREA DENIAL. Iran's testing of
the new Fajr-3 missile, torpedoes, and other types of hardware during
March 31-April 6 war games has overshadowed the exercises themselves.
But the maneuvers, which are taking place in the Persian Gulf, the
Straits of Hormuz, and the Sea of Oman, are significant because they
highlight the role of naval power in Iran's military doctrine.
Iran's long coastline -- approximately 2,400 kilometers
in the south -- affects its military outlook, Defense Minister
Mustafa Mohammad Najjar said during an early January visit to the
southern port city of Bandar Abbas. "One of the strategies of the
Defense Ministry is to promote our operation and combat forces'
capabilities in the sea," he added. It would achieve this, he said,
by building ships and submarines and through cooperation with the
gulf's littoral states. Najjar went on to say that the navy
applies creative and innovative methods, uses asymmetric warfare, and
depends on domestically made products.
Later in the month, an Iranian military official stressed
"denial of access" and said the United States is very vulnerable at
sea. Mujtaba Zolnur, a high-ranking official at the Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), continued, "This is another weak
point of the enemy because we have certain methods for fighting in
the sea so that war will spread into the Sea of Oman and the Indian
Ocean," "Aftab-i Yazd" reported on January 23. "We will not let the
enemy inside our borders."
IRGC commander General Yahya Rahim-Safavi said in summer 2005
that the plans of the corps' navy include confronting aggressors
by using asymmetric warfare and by improving power-projection
capabilities, "Siyasat-i Ruz" and "Kayhan" reported on June 8.
A total of 38,000 men serve in Iran's conventional navy
and the IRGC navy, and these forces are believed to have a
significant capacity for regular and asymmetric naval warfare.
Rahim-Safavi added that the navy wants to improve its missile
systems and its surveillance capabilities, and it wants to strengthen
its defense of Persian Gulf islands.
The need to protect bases and oil facilities in the Persian
Gulf makes "area denial" through mine warfare a major aspect of
Iranian naval doctrine. Mines were used during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq
War. Today, Iran has three to five ships with minesweeping and
mine-laying capabilities, and many of its smaller vessels can lay
mines. Aircraft can drop mines, too.
Tehran has occasionally threatened to use mines to block the
Straits of Hormuz, described by the U.S.'s Energy Information
Administration as "by far the world's most important oil choke
point." In February 2005 congressional testimony, the Defense
Intelligence Agency director, Vice Admiral Lowell Jacoby, addressed
this possibility by saying that Iran would rely on a "layered
strategy" that uses naval, air, and some ground forces to "briefly"
close the straits. Iran's purchase of North Korean fast-attack
craft and midget submarines improved this capability, he said.
Missiles are important for "area denial" as well. Iran
compensates for limited air power and surface-vessel capabilities
with an emphasis on antiship missiles. Four of these systems were
obtained from China -- the long-range Seersucker missile, as well as
the CS-801, CS-801K, and CS-802 antiship missiles. There are reports
that Iran has purchased Ukrainian antiship missiles. Most commercial
shipping is within range of missiles based on Iranian islands in the
Persian Gulf.
In an effort to limit hostile air power in the region, Iran
might target air bases to its south, or it could try to strike
aircraft carriers outside the gulf. Submarines could be used for the
latter assignment, and the port of Chah Bahar on the Sea of Oman is
being modified to serve the kilo-class submarines Iran purchased from
Russia in the 1990s.
As the Persian Gulf war games continued and Iran demonstrated
new types of equipment, Tehran sought to reassure the international
community of its benign intentions. Foreign Minister Manuchehr
Mottaki said on April 4 that the country's military doctrine is
essentially defensive, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA)
reported. (Bill Samii)
PERSIAN GULF WAR GAMES PURPORTEDLY SIGNAL 'CONVERGENCE' WITH
NEIGHBORS. Iranian ships maneuvered in the Straits of Hormuz and
practiced electronic countermeasures on April 2, the third day of the
Noble Prophet naval war games that began on March 31, state
television reported. Antiaircraft exercises reportedly took place as
well, and an anonymous "official" said anti-submarine activities took
place in the straits, the Persian Gulf, and the Sea of Oman.
Personnel from the Basij Mobilization Forces participated in the
exercises on April 1, state television reported. Two thousand Basij
members and 400 Basij vessels were used in what was described as
"exercises designed to defend cities as well as civil relief and
rescue operations."
The spokesman for the war games, Vice Rear Admiral Mohammad
Ebrahim Dehqani, said on March 31 that 17,000 people, 1,500 vessels,
and aircraft are participating in the exercises, which should last
until April 6, IRNA reported.
As the exercises entered their fourth day on 3 April, Basij
commander Brigadier General Mohammad Hejazi said his force is ready
to defend the country, Fars News Agency reported. He added that the
war games reflect Iran's policy of "convergence" with neighboring
Persian Gulf states. Insecurity caused by aliens, Hejazi said, has a
cost for the enemy and those who undermine regional stability.
Referring to an earlier missile test conducted by the Islamic
Revolution Guards Corps (see below), Hejazi said that only Iran's
enemies should be fearful. He added that all the countries in the
region benefit from the establishment of security, and this security
helps Iran economically. Therefore, he continued, Iran would not seek
to destabilize the region. (Bill Samii)
IRAN CONDUCTS SEVERAL MISSILE TESTS. On the penultimate day of naval
exercises in the Persian Gulf, Iran claimed it successfully tested a
"top secret missile," state television reported on April 5. The
missile, developed by the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps and fired
from a helicopter, reportedly employs "over the horizon targeting"
(OTH-T), which is a radar system with a range that exceeds line of
sight. State radio falsely claimed, "Iran is the first country to
have this capability." The American Harpoon missile has OTH-T
capabilities and has existed for nearly 30 years, for example. The
Harpoon can also be launched from aircraft, ships, and submarines. In
another first, a cruise missile with a 200-kilometer range was
reportedly fired from a helicopter on April 5, Iranian state
television reported.
After the demonstration of the Misaq anti-aircraft
shoulder-launched missile on April 4, war-games spokesman Mohammad
Ibrahim Dehqani said the missile can be neither detected nor
intercepted. The other missile that was tested that day, the Kosar,
can be fired from a ship or from land at a target on the water.
Dehqani stressed that this missile is also difficult to intercept.
The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps' (IRGC) navy
successfully test-fired a powerful subsurface missile on April 2, dpa
reported, citing an IRNA report. General Ali Fadavi, deputy commander
of the IRGC navy, said the torpedo can reach a maximum speed of 100
meters per second but provided no other information. AP quoted state
television reporting that the weapon could destroy virtually any
warship or submarine. Dubai's Al-Arabiyah television also
reported on the missile test, using Iranian video footage, as did
Pakistani television from Islamabad.
Meanwhile, on March 31, IRGC air-force chief General Hussein
Salami described the launch the same day of a "new missile with more
modern tactical and technical capabilities compared to previous
generations of missiles," state television reported. He said the
missile has multiple warheads that can hit different targets, and it
can evade radar and any country's antimissile defense systems.
U.S. State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said on March 31
that the surface-to-surface missile test the same day "demonstrates
that Iran has a very active and aggressive military program under
way," Radio Farda reported. That program, Ereli charged, includes the
development of weapons of mass destruction and the necessary delivery
systems. Ereli added that Iranian military activities worry the
world. "I think Iran's military posture [and]
military-development effort is of concern to the international
community, as evidenced by the kind of consensus you're seeing
with regard to their nuclear program, as well as other
nonproliferation concerns," he said, according to Radio Farda.
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of
Strategies and Technologies, told Ekho Moskvy radio on March 31 that
Iranian defense industries are insufficiently developed to create
world-class missiles. "It is hard to imagine that this missile is a
100-percent Iranian development," he continued. "Most probably it is
a clone of a Chinese missile or Chinese and old Soviet technologies
combined." This makes the missile predictable and easy to intercept,
he said. Pukhov described the Iranian claims as an effort to fight
the United States on the "information front." An unnamed "Israeli
missile expert" quoted by the newspaper "Yediot Aharanot" on April 2
said the Iranian claim is "detached from reality." (Bill Samii)
IRAN EMPHASIZES REGIONAL PEACE. On the heels of the test-firings of
two missiles earlier in the week and during continuing naval war
games in the south, Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) chief
Yahya Rahim-Safavi said on April 4 that his organization's navy
can defend Iran's islands in the Persian Gulf, IRNA reported. He
added that the navy can launch land-to-sea missiles a distance of
2,000 kilometers. Rahim-Safavi emphasized that Iran wants regional
peace and security, and said this is impossible until foreign forces
withdraw from Iraq.
Rahim-Safavi said on April 5 that the United States should
recognize Iran as a "regional power," state television and IRNA
reported. Speaking in the southern port city of Bandar Abbas,
Rahim-Safavi went on to say that Washington should know that threats
or sanctions will work against U.S. and European interests.
Iran's "Noble Prophet" naval exercises ended on April 6,
and Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammad Najjar announced in Bandar
Abbas on that day that Iran is willing to conduct joint exercises
with any of the Persian Gulf littoral states, IRNA reported. He added
that Iran is willing to sign a non-aggression pact with any of its
southern neighbors. Noting the demonstrations of new equipment during
the exercises, he promised more in the near future. Also in Bandar
Abbas, Islamic revolution guards Corps commander Yahya Rahim-Safavi
said, "We hope the trans-regional powers have got the message of the
war game," IRNA reported. He warned that insecurity in Iran is a
threat to trans-regional powers. (Bill Samii)
AMBASSADOR CALLS FOR NEGOTIATED SOLUTION TO NUCLEAR ROW. Mohammad
Javad Zarif, Iran United Nations ambassador, said in an April 6 op-ed
in "The New York Times" that a negotiated solution to the Iranian
nuclear crisis is "possible and eminently within reach," and added
that Tehran has tried to "resuscitate" negotiations with Berlin,
London, and Paris. Not only has Iran accepted rigorous inspections by
the UN since October 203, but "Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of
the Islamic Republic, has issued a decree against the development,
production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons." Zarif concluded
by saying that "pressure and threats" will not yield results, whereas
"political will" and "serious negotiations" will produce a solution.
(Bill Samii)
EARTHQUAKE SURVIVORS CRITICIZE ASSISTANCE EFFORTS. Hanif Yazdani, a
resident of the quake-stricken town of Dorud in Luristan Province,
told Radio Farda that some 600-700 locals demonstrated in front of
the governorate on April 1 over what they view as slow and inadequate
provision of emergency services. Three earthquakes struck western
Iran early on March 31, with Interior Ministry official Mohammad
Hussein Shiri saying the next day that 70 people had been killed and
almost 1,300 injured. Shiri said at that time that relief had reached
90 percent of the damaged area, but, according to Yazdani, some 400
people are still without tents. Even people whose houses were not
destroyed by the initial quakes are reluctant to go home because they
fear aftershocks, Yazdani said. Yazdani told Radio Farda that 160
riot-control personnel (niruha-yi zed-i shuresh) attacked the
demonstrators, and shots were fired in the air. Yazdani added that
the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps began distributing tents and will
enforce order. Yazdani ascribed other relief delays for the
impoverished area to bureaucracy, corruption, favoritism, and
nepotism.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ereli on March 31 read a
letter from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in which she
expresses condolences to victims of the Luristan earthquake, Radio
Farda reported. The letter also mentions the possibility of U.S.
assistance: "We wish to support efforts under way to help those
suffering as a result of this tragedy. The United States is ready to
provide humanitarian assistance to the Iranian people in this time of
need."
Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns telephoned Iran's
ambassador to the UN, Mohammad Javad Zarif, on March 31 to express
sympathies and offer assistance that would include blankets and
water, IRNA reported. Zarif said Iran is not yet seeking
international aid.
IRNA reported on March 31 that the United States "uses"
humanitarian disasters like the recent Luristan earthquakes to show
the Iranian people "it has a humanitarian heart" so it can "create a
wedge between the people and the government." State radio reacted to
the U.S. offers by saying on April 1 that "the objectives and motives
behind the deceptive and misleading sympathies expressed by [U.S.
President George W.] Bush and [Secretary] Rice for the quake victims
in Iran are apparent to the Iranian people. And if the officials in
Washington are sincere, instead of promising to help, they should
recognize the rights of the Iranian nation in nuclear technology."
Iran has previously accepted U.S. earthquake relief, and the
extent of the assistance after the December 2003 earthquake in Bam
led to speculation that official contacts could follow. Tehran dashed
these hopes when it rejected a visit by a high-level U.S. delegation
that would include North Carolina Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole
(see "RFE/RL Iran Report," 12 January 2004). Tehran would later
ascribe its failure to assist quake victims in a timely fashion to
the failure of other countries to meet assistance commitments, but
the Red Crescent Society demanded an accounting because only $1.9
million of the more than $11.8 million in foreign funds reached the
victims (see "RFE/RL Iran Report," 15 March 2004).
Aid from others donors was accepted. For example, Russia sent
aid on April 1, according to Russia's RTR television, and
Pakistan sent aid the next day, IRNA reported.
UNICEF has committed $100,000 to assist young victims of the
March 31 earthquake, "Iran" newspaper reported on April 4. Christine
Salazar Volkmann, the UNICEF spokeswoman in Iran, said after a visit
to the city of Borujerd in Luristan that children had spent several
nights out in the cold since the tremors. UNICEF's Iran office
has distributed 10,000 cots and 300 tents, "Iran" reported. The
UNICEF office added that experts on children's health have been
sent to the region. An April 3 statement from the United Nations
added that the World Health Organization (WHO) has established an
office in Dorud, one of the worst-hit cities, and is sending enough
supplies for the treatment of 20,000 people, AP reported. A total of
$450,000 has been committed by UN agencies. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN DENOUNCES U.S. DEMOCRACY PROMOTION. "Friends of Uncle Sam in
Iran," Tehran television announced on April 6. An unnamed U.S. deputy
secretary of state has announced that unnamed Iranian NGOs are
receiving "tips and wages" from the U.S. These NGOS, Tehran
television continued, will do Washington's bidding under the
guise of "human rights and democracy." (Bill Samii)
POLITICAL ACTIVISTS VOW TO STEER CLEAR OF POSSIBLE U.S. FUNDING.
Prominent activists and political opponents of Iran's hard-line
administration are warning that U.S. funds designated to help civic
groups could backfire. The Bush administration recently (in February)
announced plans to seek $75 million in emergency funding to promote
democracy in Iran, in addition to $10 million already budgeted. A
loose affiliation of intellectuals at home and abroad has rejected
such aid as "an insult" to the Iranian people. And the fear of any
perception of subservience to a foreign government is strong.
While gauging public opinion can be a tall order in Iran,
many of those who have spoken out so far say they are keen to
maintain their independence. They say they don't need American
money to continue their efforts to promote democracy in Iran.
Mohammad Ali Dadkhah is a co-founder of the Center for Human
Rights Defenders. Dadkhah tells RFE/RL that democratic changes should
come from inside the country -- without outside interference.
"Democracy is not a product that we can import from another country,"
Dadkhah says. "We have to prepare the ground for it so that it can
grow and bear fruit -- especially because independent and national
forces, and also self-reliant forces, in Iran will never accept a
foreign country telling them what to do and which way to take."
The proposed U.S. aid would include $25 million to support
"political dissidents, labor union leaders, and human rights
activists" in additional to nongovernmental groups outside Iran. The
declared aim is to allow them to build support inside the country.
The U.S. administration also wants $50 million to set up
round-the-clock television broadcasting in Persian to beam into Iran.
Another $5 million is aimed at allowing Iranian students and scholars
to study in the United States. And $15 million is earmarked for other
measures like expanding Internet access, which is tightly controlled
in Iran.
Wary Of Perceptions
It can be difficult to measure broad public opinion in Iran,
whose authorities keep a tight lid on public expression. But most
activists inside the country would be wary of being labeled
pro-American.
Dadkhah says that if activists were to accept the U.S. aid,
they would immediately be branded U.S. spies and accused of
endangering Iran's national security. "Independent forces would
go close to these financial funds," Dadkhah says. "We have to work
through legal paths and logical channels so that democracy, freedom,
and human rights are fully respected in this country."
Abdullah Momeni, an outspoken Iranian student leader, warns
that U.S. financial aid would threaten the independence of those
seeking increased freedoms and put them at the official risk. Momeni
tells RFE/RL that those working for democracy in Iran instead need
moral support and international recognition. "Under the current
conditions, the support of the international community and pressure
on the authoritarian Iranian regime to recognize democratic
principles in Iranian society could help the Iranian people achieve
democracy," Momeni says. "The only result of financial aid would be
to inflame sensitivities, put civil society activists under threat,
and give the regime an excuse to suppress opponents and opposition
members."
Fiercely 'Independent Opposition'
A loose alliance of political activists and intellectuals
calling itself the Independent Iranian Opposition has issued a
statement declaring that "only the people will determine Iran's
fate." It adds that the independent Iranian opposition has always
battled with no expectation of financial assistance from "interested
foreign powers." It also pledges that members will continue their
efforts until a "free, independent, and democratic Iran" emerges.
A respected human-rights activist and lawyer, Mehrangiz Kar
is an Iranian woman who lives in the United States. Kar tells Radio
Farda that while money is important for rights groups to function,
"security" is even more crucial to their effectiveness. "The shaky
security under which human rights and democracy activists are working
in Iran would become even shakier and more uncertain [if U.S. funding
is involved]," Kar says. "So, in my opinion, if they could provide
security and money, that would be ideal. But since they can't,
sending money through government channels is one of the most damaging
ways that has been adopted in the name of helping democracy and human
rights in Iran."
Abbas Milani is a distinguished Iranian scholar and
co-director of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution.
Milani questions whether the new U.S. initiative would achieve its
goal of fostering democracy. He pointed out in a joint contribution
with Michael McFaul to "The Wall Street Journal" on March 6 that
while "outsiders find it easy to support democracy rhetorically," it
is harder to put such concepts into practice.
Milani warns the United States against support for "regime
change" through violence or for ethnic groups seeking independence
from Tehran. He insists that any new U.S. aid must empower "existing
democrats, not create democrats from [among] those with close ties to
Washington."
Meanwhile, Iranian officials have described the U.S.
administration's funding request as "provocative and
interventionist."
Iranian media reported in March that the Foreign Ministry
sent a letter of protest to Washington over the plan. Not to be
outdone, Iranian lawmakers have approved about $15 million to
"discover and neutralize American plots and intervention" in their
country. (Golnaz Esfandiari, Radio Farda's Maryam Ahmadi
contributed to this report)
RIGHTS LEADER SAYS REFORMISTS SEEK TO REGAIN STRENGTH. U.S. Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice called in February for the U.S. Congress to
allow Washington to increase spending on democracy programs for Iran
from $10 million to $75 million this year. Fatemeh Aman of
RFE/RL's Radio Farda interviewed Fatemeh Haghighatjoo, a leading
defender of human rights and advocate democracy in Iran, for her
views on the wisdom of such overt support, on how the crisis over
Iran's nuclear program is affecting the opposition, and on the
current mood among two key groups, women and students. A former
member of the Iranian parliament, Haghighatjoo resigned in 2004
following a crackdown on reformers. She is now a visiting scholar
with the Center of International Studies at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology in Boston, in the United States.
RFE/RL: As an active member of the Iranian reformists'
camp, how do you think Rice's $75 million proposal will affect
the democracy movement in Iran? Fatemeh Haghighatjoo: I don't
think this plan will help promote democracy in Iran. On the contrary,
it will weaken the position of pro-democracy activists in Iran. Even
before the United States announced this move, extreme right-wing
figures such as Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi [a cleric whose
followers include Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad], used to
accuse Iranian reformists of receiving suitcases from the United
States stuffed with dollars.
This rumor was the basis for the prosecution of many writers
and journalists. Many newspapers were banned and journalists jailed.
This monetary support will play into the hands of the totalitarian
regime in Tehran to systematically crack down on the democracy
movement. Having said that, I do agree with some of the points raised
by Rice, such as proposals about cultural and scientific exchange.
The U.S. government should ease restrictions on Iranians --
particularly academics -- for travel and for culture and scientific
exchanges.
RFE/RL: But if the regime is looking for an excuse,
couldn't it use even this kind of support against the democracy
movement?
Haghighatjoo: This is a long-term issue. Currently, the
biggest problem in Iran is the absence of an independent media.
Supporting independent media and the free flow of information will
have a significant impact on the promotion of democracy in Iran.
RFE/RL: Do you mean media within Iran, or outside the
country?
Haghighatjoo: Radio and television are run by the government.
Most newspapers and websites are also directly or indirectly run by
state institutions. The few independent media outlets there are also
under enormous pressure. So what we need are media outlets that are
independent of the Islamic Republic. As you know, Iran's Supreme
National Security Council has issued an order that bans media from
reporting about the standoff [with the West over Iran's nuclear
program]. Many people [in Iran] may not know that Iran has been
referred to the Security Council. This is the type of news that
[independent] media would be able to convey.
U.S. Model For The Middle East?
RFE/RL: Do you think that the United States has a viable
model for promoting democracy in the Middle East? How successful do
you think this plan could be in the region?
Haghighatjoo: I personally believe that the drive to promote
democracy in the Middle East stems primarily from U.S. national
interests and the threat of terrorism. Efforts to fight terrorism can
also help promote democracy, but once democracy and the principles of
voting are accepted, you can't complain about the outcome. A lot
of people in the United States are worried about this and are even
raising the question whether democracy is appropriate for the Middle
East. This is a short-sighted view.
The second point is that democracy cannot be imposed by war.
What we should be working on is promoting the culture of democracy in
the Middle East. I think the United States needs to revise many of
its policies. Promoting democracy has to be adjusted to suit the
cultural specificities of these countries. The military option is by
nature antidemocratic. Look at Iraq. There are certainly some
positive trends there, such as free elections. But the negative
aspects predominate, at least for now.
The Nuclear Crisis And The Reformers
RFE/RL: Before the Iranian presidential elections in June
2005, you predicted that if Ahmadinejad were elected, it would
militarize Iranian politics and increase pressure on the democracy
movement. Now it seems that the nuclear standoff is also helping the
militarists. What can Iranian activists do to have an influence on
this process, or prevent it from moving ahead?
Haghighatjoo: I think if the United Nations were to pressure
Iran on the issue of human rights, rather than on the nuclear issue,
it would have been much more effective. The regime would never have
been able to manage to create such a united front against it. People
would certainly not let the regime violate human rights and justify
it as being in the national interest -- whereas they have been able
to create some degree of unity among different factions of the regime
and make a national-interest issue out of the nuclear standoff. Any
military action or even indiscriminate sanctions against Iran will
strengthen the position of the totalitarian elements within the
Islamic Republic. I hope the Security Council is aware of this fact.
RFE/RL: Why are the reformers so quiet? Is it a temporary
tactic, or is it out of fear of prosecution?
Haghighatjoo: I am not entirely uncritical of the policy of
the reformers in Iran. But the fact is that they are under enormous
pressure. Events such as the appearance of Akbar Atri and Ali Afshari
[of the Office for Strengthening Unity, an umbrella student group]
before the U.S. Congress in March also increase the pressure on the
reformers. After the topic of the $75 million in aid came up, many
Iranians were arrested who had in the past attended the Iran Human
Rights Documentation Center in New Haven [which documents human
rights abuses in Iran, and receives U.S. funding]. It's important
to act in a way that doesn't raise the price of activism in Iran.
RFE/RL: Before the election, you predicted that an
Ahmadinejad government could only survive in a crisis. Is the nuclear
standoff the type of crisis that you believe he's been seeking?
Haghighatjoo: Yes, a crisis like this. And also possibly a
military attack. A military attack, in particular, would help them to
strengthen themselves enormously. The different factions have now
found a common enemy. Without this [nuclear] crisis, the parliament
and the executive would now be engaged in a bitter fight, and the
rift between [and current chair of the Expediency Council, which has
supervisory powers over all branches of government, and former
President] Hashemi Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad or [Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei would have deepened.
Iran's Rebellious Women?
RFE/RL: Let's turn to women's issues. The governments
of Ahmadinejad and [former President Mohammad] Khatami's
governments differ in this regard tremendously. You had said that
Khordad 2nd -- the date, in the Islamic calendar, when Khatami won
his first election, and the subsequent name of Iran's reformist
movement -- would have not happened without women. Do you think the
achievements of the women's movement during that time are being
lost irreversibly?
Haghighatjoo: Well, as I said, the pressure is immense, and
it has silenced even the most outspoken reformers. I don't think
the current situation will put an end to the women's movement,
but it will have a significant negative impact on it. Activities will
diminish, but the demands will still be there, and they will be
expressed again once the situation improves. We should also realize
that these pressures may trigger a rebellious response. Previously,
women always sought permission for their gatherings. However, many
women's groups don't bother with that anymore. I think
women's demands and the form of their protests will change.
The Importance Of Students
RFE/RL: Will the next major movement in Iran be a student
movement?
Haghighatjoo: The generation of the Islamic Revolution is
committed to the Islamic Republic and the concept of a religion-based
governance. Both the reformists and the conservatives are from this
generation. Many reformists still support the concept of "Vilayat-i
Faqih," or supreme jurisprudence. But the new generation is not
interested in the model of the Islamic Republic; it supports a
secular model instead. Secularism -- not exactly as practiced in
France or Turkey, but as a system based on the separation of the
institution of religion from the institution of power. This
generation cannot see their freedom being restricted in the name of
religion.
The next leaders of the Iranian democracy movement will be
those who fight for a secular constitution, and this potential exists
in the student movement. I believe that no broad political movement
can take root in Iran without the students. However, the student
movement is not yet mature, and cannot lead to a widespread civic
movement by itself. The student movement must ally itself with elites
who follow the same principles. The religious elites cannot be allied
with the student movement. We see now that the demarcation between
the religious elites and the student movement is becoming
increasingly clear. I don't think a widespread movement will take
shape soon. However, if the students make the right moves and take
advantage of political opportunities that may come up, they can pave
the way for a broad civic movement.
*************************************** ******************
Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The "RFE/RL Iran Report" is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services. It is distributed every Monday.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
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